Successful house flipping requires careful planning, hard work, and a thorough understanding of the real estate market. In this blog post, we’ll guide you through the essential steps to flip a house the right way, ensuring you maximize your chances of a profitable outcome.

Step 1: Research Your Market

Before you dive into the world of house flipping, it’s crucial to research your local real estate market. Understanding current trends, property values, and neighborhoods with potential for growth is essential. Look for areas where homes are in demand and likely to appreciate in value. Conduct thorough market research to identify your target audience and what they’re looking for in a home.

Step 2: Set a Realistic Budget

One of the most common mistakes in house flipping is underestimating costs. Create a detailed budget that includes the purchase price, renovation expenses, holding costs (property taxes, utilities, insurance), and selling costs (agent commissions, closing costs). Be sure to leave room for unexpected expenses, as they often arise in the renovation process. A realistic budget is key to avoiding financial setbacks.

Step 3: Secure Financing

Unless you have significant personal funds, you’ll need to secure financing for your house flipping project. Options include traditional mortgages, hard money loans, private investors, or partnerships. Choose the financing option that aligns with your budget and timeline. Be prepared to present a solid business plan to potential lenders or investors.

Step 4: Find the Right Property

Locating the right property is a critical step in the house flipping process. Look for homes with good bones, in desirable neighborhoods, and with the potential for value appreciation. Pay attention to the property’s condition and the extent of renovations needed. It’s often better to start with a cosmetic fixer-upper for your first flip, as major structural issues can be costly and complex.

Step 5: Renovate Wisely

Effective renovation is the heart of successful house flipping. Create a renovation plan that balances cost-effectiveness with aesthetics and functionality. Focus on kitchen and bathroom updates, fresh paint, flooring, and curb appeal. Be sure to obtain the necessary permits and hire reputable contractors. Keep a close eye on the renovation process to ensure it stays on schedule and within budget.

Step 6: Market Strategically

Once the renovations are complete, it’s time to market the property effectively. Work with a real estate agent who has experience in selling flipped properties. Invest in professional photography and staging to make the home look its best. Price the property competitively to attract potential buyers while still ensuring a profit.

Step 7: Sell at the Right Time

Timing is crucial in house flipping. Pay attention to the market cycle in your area and aim to sell when demand is high. A well-timed sale can maximize your profit potential.

Step 8: Learn and Adapt

Even if your first flip isn’t as profitable as you hoped, it’s essential to learn from the experience. Evaluate what went well and what could be improved. House flipping is a learning process, and each project provides valuable insights for future success.

Flipping a house can be a rewarding and profitable venture when done correctly. It’s essential to approach it with careful planning, realistic expectations, and a willingness to adapt and learn. By conducting thorough research, setting a budget, securing financing, choosing the right property, renovating wisely, marketing effectively, and timing your sale strategically, you can flip a house the right way and set yourself up for success in the world of real estate investment. Muevo is your partner in achieving success in the world of house flipping. Contact us today to learn how our expertise and resources can help you navigate the challenges and opportunities of house flipping, ensuring that you flip houses the right way and achieve your financial goals. Your success is our priority, and together, we can turn your house flipping dreams into a profitable reality.

So, you’re tossing around the idea of packing up your bags and moving to Florida.

If you’re thinking about moving to the home of Disney World, the Daytona 500 and a 200-foot alligator named Swampy (yep, that’s a real thing), you’re probably wondering about the Florida housing market. Well, you’re in luck! We dug into the latest news on the housing market in Florida to give you a heads-up on what to expect in the Sunshine State.

Now, the best way to learn about Florida’s market is to talk to a real estate agent who actually lives in Florida (you can find one through our RamseyTrusted program), but these numbers and predictions will give you a good idea of what to look out for.

Ready to dive in? Let’s go!

What’s the Florida Housing Market Like?

Just like pretty much everywhere else in the U.S., housing prices in Florida went up in 2023—though not by a whole lot.

Here’s a look at Florida’s numbers from Q4 2023 compared to Q4 2022:

Florida Housing Market*	October 2023	October 2022	Percent Change
Median Sale Price**	$410,000	$401,990	+2.0%
Inventory (Active Listings)	74,703	68,813	+8.6%
Closed Sales	19,729	20,837	-5.3%
Median Time to Sale***	71 days	70 days	+1.4%1
Average Mortgage Rate(15-Year Fixed)	7.03%	6.36%	+10%2

_{*Numbers in this chart represent data on single-family homes only.**Median Sale Price refers to the midpoint—half the homes were sold for more, half for less.***Median Time to Sale is the number of days between the listing and closing of a home sale—half of homes selling this quarter took more time to sell, half took less.}

Florida Housing Market in Major Cities

Sometimes, looking at an entire state’s housing situation doesn’t paint a complete picture of what it’s like in individual cities. So, here’s a look at some housing market numbers in three of Florida’s biggest cities: Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville.

	Orlando	Tampa	Jacksonville
Median Listing Price	$447,450	$425,000	$412,000
Year Over Year % Change	+0.02%	+0.02%	+0.04%3

How Does Florida Compare to the National Housing Market?

Now, let’s see how Florida’s real estate market compares to the U.S. as a whole. At the national level, the median home listing price in November 2023 was $420,000. Florida’s median listing price during the same timeframe was a bit more expensive at $462,623—9.66% higher than the typical national price.

Still, Florida’s housing prices are more affordable than what you’d find in 19 other states—including Vermont, Nevada, Arizona and New Jersey.⁴

Florida Housing Market Predictions for 2024

We’ve looked at the numbers, so let’s shift into seeing what some real estate gurus are predicting about Florida housing heading into 2024.

1. Buyers and sellers will wait patiently.

Homeownership has gotten a lot more expensive over the last few years, with prices going through the roof back in 2021 and interest rates hitting 20-year highs throughout 2023. What will that mean for potential Florida buyers and sellers in 2024? Florida REALTORS® chief economist Brad O’Connor believes a waiting game is on the horizon.

“Inventory is increasing, which has helped slow price growth,” O’Connor said. “Many buyers and sellers are on the fence now, waiting to see what happens to mortgage rates.”⁵

That sounds about right. After all, the sky-high interest rates we’re seeing right now are keeping a lot of folks from being able to afford buying a home, and many would-be sellers don’t want to move if it means losing a low-interest mortgage they locked in before rates went through the roof.

Find expert agents to help you buy your home.

So, the best move for plenty of people heading into 2024 is sitting on their hands—at least until we get a clearer picture of what interest rates will do moving forward. Speaking of interest rates . . .

2. Interest rates should start going down.

So, what should you expect from mortgage interest rates in 2024? Most likely, rates will finally stop climbing and start dropping. That’s what National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) chief economist Lawrence Yun is predicting.

“I believe we’ve already reached the peak in terms of interest rates,” Yun said. “The question is when are rates going to come down?”⁶

While Yun is right that it’s hard to know exactly when rates will begin decreasing in 2024, virtually everyone agrees that they will at some point. How much will rates go down? NAR’s economic outlook from October 2023 predicts that the typical interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will drop from 7.5% at the beginning of the year to 6.3% by December.⁷

A drop of just over 1% wouldn’t be a game changer, but it would make buying a home a bit more affordable for Floridians by the end of 2024.

3. Inventory will still need a boost.

When supply is low and demand is high in the housing market, prices go up. That’s why they increased so drastically a few years back, and it’s why those high prices have held steady ever since. Even though inventory has steadily gone up since 2021—both in Florida and across the country—it hasn’t grown fast enough to keep up with increasing demand.

Will that trend continue in 2024? Almost definitely. Take it from Ken H. Johnson, an associate dean at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business. He believes that South Florida could really use 200,000 new housing units per year, but the numbers say the area is currently only getting a tenth of that.

“We are having trouble building homes fast enough,” Johnson said.⁸

Even though Florida’s housing inventory is increasing, it’s not happening fast enough to have a major impact on price or to keep up with the state’s crazy population influx. After all, Johnson also predicts that all nine of Florida’s largest metro areas will see a population growth of 10% or more over the next 10 years—with Orlando and southwest Florida potentially growing at twice that rate.⁹

Moral of the story: Just like every other state, Florida could use a lot more homes on the market in 2024.

Will the Housing Market Crash in Florida?

If you’re concerned about a housing crash in Florida or anywhere else in the U.S. in 2024, you can take a deep breath. That’s because home prices aren’t going to drop substantially in 2024. In fact, prices are actually more likely to go up.

For example, NAR predicts that existing home prices across the U.S. will grow by 2.6% in 2024.¹⁰ Freddie Mac expects a 0.8% bump during the same timeframe.¹¹

So, if you’re waiting on home prices to come down drastically before you buy, you’re going to be waiting for a while—it’s not happening anytime soon.

Is It a Good Time to Buy or Sell a House in Florida in 2024?

Alright, we’ve looked at a whole lot of stats, trends and predictions for the Florida real estate market. As we wrap up, you probably have one important question on your mind: Should I buy or sell in Florida this year? Let’s talk about it.

Here’s the deal: You shouldn’t let the housing market control your decision on whether to buy or sell right now. It’s important to understand real estate trends so you have some context, but you should base your decision on your individual situation.

For example, if you’re buying a house, you need to make sure you’re financially prepared. That means being debt-free with a full emergency fund worth 3–6 months of your typical expenses, and having enough cash saved up to make a down payment of at least 5–10%. (By the way, a 20% down payment is best because it means you won’t have to pay for private mortgage insurance.)

And if you’re selling a house, you need to make sure you can afford the move and that doing so won’t hurt your financial situation. It also wouldn’t be a bad idea to line up a new place to live—though you never want to buy a new house before selling your old one.

Bottom line: You are in control of whether it’s a good time to buy or sell a house in Florida—not the market.

https://www.ramseysolutions.com/real-estate/florida-housing-market

The financial world is buzzing with anticipation following the Federal Reserve’s recent choice to keep interest rates steady. While market analysts largely predicted this move, the unexpected twist came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who hinted at a possible three-rate drop in 2024. This surprising announcement has ignited curiosity and raised questions about its potential impact on real estate portfolios, particularly for investors seeking to navigate the evolving landscape.

Understanding the Fed’s Decision

At its year-end meeting, the Fed chose to halt interest rate hikes, keeping short-term rates within the 5.25% to 5.5% range. Powell’s assurance of scaling back on rate increases indicates a shift in monetary policy heading into 2024.

Predictions suggest a more relaxed atmosphere for mortgage rates, offering potential relief for aspiring homeowners and investors with Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) portfolios. The positive outlook is supported by housing economists, pointing towards a favorable period ahead.

Optimistic Trends

Powell’s traditionally hawkish stance has taken a surprising turn, signaling a potential end to the rate hike cycle. This shift has implications across investments, causing yields on 5-year and 10-year Treasuries to contract. For investors monitoring DSCR loan pricing, these changes align with future rate trajectories that could enhance investment opportunities.

Real estate investors eager to refinance may encounter challenges due to tight inventory, affecting affordability. Despite these hurdles, a buoyant selling season is anticipated, especially for flippers, who could benefit from reduced refinance rates on investment properties.

Taking a skeptical view, Powell’s dovish turn raises questions about potential political motivations, especially considering the upcoming 2024 election. Active investors should consider this factor when speculating on medium-term market conditions.

Investor Sentiment

Positive sentiments fueled by Powell’s reassuring foresight may prompt previously hesitant investors to enter the market. Temporary dips in transaction volumes are attributed to elevated rates rather than distress, aided by the liquidity from COVID-era stimulus funds.

While a modest 25 basis points dip occurred, predicting a return to pre-pandemic interest rates of 3-5% seems unlikely. Investors should prepare for a new normal of higher interest rates and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Refinancing Opportunities for DSCR Portfolios

For investors with DSCR portfolios, the present is an opportune time to refinance and secure lower rates. The market’s desire for rate reductions could lead to unforeseen developments.

While an immediate surge in real estate sales is not expected, a potential boom may unfold in the next 60 to 90 days. The affordable housing segment is poised for price increases due to limited inventory and high demand, presenting an opportunity for buyers to act quickly.

Exit Strategies and Market Engagement

Pressure on flipper margins underscores the importance of robust risk management. Investors may need to reconsider their exit strategies, shifting from quick flips to potential long-term rentals.

Financial institutions are exercising caution, influencing the pace of re-engagement with the market. Investors should monitor these shifts as they can impact portfolio decisions.

The Bottom Line

Real estate investors must strike a balance between cautious optimism and prudent skepticism considering the recent Fed decisions. While the landscape is evolving, taking informed steps such as monitoring interest rate trends and seizing refinancing opportunities is crucial for securing investments. Armed with knowledge, foresight, and a blend of caution and courage, investors can navigate the changing real estate landscape successfully.

Amid declining property values in a tight lending environment, all-cash buyers will benefit from bargain pricing, CBRE predicts in its latest outlook.

CBRE expects an economic slowdown in the U.S. next year that will impact commercial real estate with bank lending remaining tight throughout 2024, investment volume decreasing 5 percent, cap rates expanding and property values declining.

But the U.S. may be able to avoid a recession and interest rates should be reduced later in the year as activity picks up in the second half of 2024, according to the firm’s 2024 U.S. real estate outlook.

Property types with relatively strong fundamentals, including demand, vacancy and rent growth, like industrial, retail, multifamily and data centers will be most favored by investors in 2024, according to CBRE.

Richard Barkham, CBRE global chief economist & global head of research, said in prepared remarks there is still some more pain ahead for the commercial real estate industry in 2024, including overall investment volumes remaining down for the year. But he expects an upturn by the second half and overall leasing activity to pick up as well. He notes stabilization and the early stages of recovery are also not far off.

North America dry powder by strategy. Chart courtesy of CBRE

With inflation easing, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin reducing short-term interest rates in 2024, possibly to around 4.25 percent by the end of the year and to 3.5 percent in 2025.

There should be buying opportunities in the first half of 2024, especially for all-cash buyers like sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and endowments. CBRE expects the lowest pricing for assets will occur in the first two quarters.

The report notes increasing cap rates, which have risen by about 150 basis points between early 2022 and late 2023 depending on the market and asset type, imply a 20 percent decline in values for most property types. For office, the increase was higher, rising by at least 200 basis points.

“We think cap rates will expand by another 25 to 50 basis points in 2024, with a corresponding 5 percent to 15 percent decrease in values,” the report states.

CBRE expects real estate values for most property types will likely not stabilize before mid-2024.

Historical & forecast cap rates. Chart courtesy of CBRE

Office vacancies to peak

The outlook expects another tough year ahead for the office market with office vacancy peaking at nearly 20 percent in 2024, up from 18.4 in the third quarter of 2023 and 12.1 percent at the end of 2019.

CBRE notes a slowing economy in the first part of 2024 and increasing acceptance of hybrid working arrangements will continue to limit office demand next year. The 2023 U.S. Office Occupier Sentiment Survey found more than half of the respondents planned to further reduce their office space in 2024.

Companies looking to lease less than 20,000 square feet will account for most of the leasing activity, according to CBRE. Leasing activity should rise by 5 percent in 2024, however that is still 20 to 25 percent lower than pre-pandemic levels.

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READ ALSO: How Incentives Boost Office Conversions

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Meanwhile, the flight-to-quality trend should continue with occupiers seeking space in newer, prime office properties with the best amenities. But office construction levels will be at their lowest levels since 2024, which could result in a shortage of that sought-after Class A space later in the year. CBRE forecasts that average prime office asking rent will increase by as much as 3 percent.

On the investment side, the higher-for-longer outlook for interest rates will cause some owners of Class B and C office assets to sell due to further erosion in values. Many of those older buildings that lack modern amenities will continue to struggle to attract tenants, so a higher percentage of older office assets are likely to be converted to other uses. While office conversions can be challenging, the report notes the federal government is providing grants, low-interest loans and tax incentives and local governments are also offering incentives.

Not all office markets are suffering, and the outlook shines a light on several active cities in the U.S. In Nashville, Tenn., where absorption and rents are up, demand for new office space is expected to remain strong. Miami is seeing one of the highest rent increases in the country and the vacancy rate is dropping as new-to-the market tenants are keeping the market healthy. Las Vegas has seen an uptick in leasing activity and strong preleasing at speculative projects, putting the market in a strong position heading into 2024.

Industrial sector slowdown

The industrial sector should see net absorption similar to 2023 levels and rent growth moderating to 8 percent. Construction deliveries are tapering off and expected to continue to slow down due to economic uncertainty, tight lending conditions and oversupply in some markets.

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READ ALSO: Property Management Success: How AI Boosts Industrial

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Vacancy is expected to hit 5 percent by mid-2024, up from 4.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023 but decrease later in the year due to the decline in new construction. Looking ahead, CBRE is forecasting a 7.5 percent increase in U.S. industrial production over the next five years as more occupiers improve their supply chains by adding more import locations and onshoring or nearshoring of manufacturing operations. Markets to watch include Austin and San Antonio in Texas; Nashville; Salt Lake City and Central Florida.

Retail’s declining availability

The retail sector is also facing a lack of new construction. That will contribute to retail availability rates dropping by 20 basis points next year to 4.6 percent. Asking rent growth is expected to drop below 2 percent for most of 2024 but go above 2 percent by the fourth quarter.

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READ ALSO: Mixed Shopping Cart for Retail

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Open-air suburban retail centers will see demand grow faster than other retail formats and neighborhood, community and strip centers will have stable occupancy throughout the year. Look for traditional mall-based retailers to seek other new formats outside the malls for expansion. Texas markets are expected to see more luxury brands. Other markets to watch include Orlando, Fla.; Charlotte, N.C.; Denver; San Francisco and Orange County, Calif.

AI to fuel increased data center demand

The data center market is seeing growth, often driven by advances in cloud-based solutions, artificial intelligence and other new applications and technologies. CBRE notes demand will continue to be higher than supply and construction in major markets will exceed 3,000 MW in 2024, up from the company’s 2023 estimate of 2.500 MW. Markets to watch include Austin; San Antonio and Omaha, Neb.

https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/what-to-expect-for-cre-in-2024/

When it comes to living a healthier lifestyle, the little things can add up and make a considerable impact! It’s not just about hitting the gym or eating right – it’s also about creating a healthier home environment and adopting habits that promote overall well-being. To help you on your journey, here are some tips that will contribute to a more holistically fit lifestyle.

Purify Your Air

Minimizing indoor air pollution can affect how you feel, from reducing asthma triggers to creating a better sleeping environment. Because of this, ensuring good air quality in your home is something you should prioritize. One easy solution is to invest in an air purifier, which can help eliminate many common indoor pollutants. And if you live in a region that gets smoke-filled air from frequent forest fires, an air purifier is a must in the summer and fall months. Additionally, regularly changing your furnace filters can substantially improve your indoor air quality.

Adopt Some Green Friends

Plants don’t just make your home prettier – they also offer some serious health benefits! Certain types, like the snake plant, aloe vera and peace lily, are well-known to clean the indoor air, increase humidity and release oxygen. Plus, introducing plants is a great way to add a relaxing dose of nature to your living space, along with enhancing the air quality.

Make a Shoes-Off Policy

Keeping your shoes at the door is a simple practice that can keep your home cleaner and healthier. Shoes can track in germs, dirt and other outdoor pollutants, not to mention allergens like pollen. Adopting a shoes-off policy can significantly reduce this influx of unwanted substances into your home, improving the overall living environment and potentially contributing to a decreased risk of allergies and illnesses.

Regularly Deep Clean Carpets

Carpet maintenance is not just about keeping up the aesthetic appeal – it’s fundamentally a health measure. Carpets can act like a filter, trapping various airborne particles, including pet dander, dust mites, pollen and other allergens. Although vacuuming helps, it often isn’t enough to remove all these contaminants deeply embedded in the carpet’s fibers. A regular deep clean is necessary to extract these allergens and pollutants fully. Experts recommend a professional cleaning every 12 to 18 months, depending on your carpet’s usage level.

Filter Your Water

Filters can remove contaminants from your water, providing safer and often better-tasting H2O. Clean, fresh water is vital in maintaining good health, so it’s well worth the investment. A reusable pitcher is also a greener and more economical choice than buying plastic bottled water. Plus, there are fantastic pitcher options, from the downright luxurious to the no-frills model.

Room to Exercise, Destress & Create

Repurposing space in your home and creating dedicated areas for physical activity, relaxation and hobbies can significantly influence your health journey. Make a quiet corner ready for workouts, even if it’s just enough space for a yoga mat – it can motivate you to stick to a regular exercise routine. Exercise not only boosts your physical health but also acts as a natural stress reliever. In addition, having a place to unwind and disconnect can considerably improve your mental health. This could be a reading nook, a meditation corner or somewhere to engage in your favorite hobbies and crafts.

Establish a Tech-Free Zone

Consider a kitchen or dining room charging station to keep phones out of bedrooms at night. A tech-free bedroom can help improve sleep quality and promote a better sleep routine and a healthier home. Tempting as it may be, instead of using your phone’s alarm to wake up in the morning, pick out one of these top-rated and stylish alarm clocks.

Remember, living a fit, healthy lifestyle is more than the big gestures – it’s also about the little steps you can take daily. Pick a few from our list and start 2024 off on the right foot!

When it comes to living a healthier lifestyle, the little things can add up and make a considerable impact! It’s not just about hitting the gym or eating right – it’s also about creating a healthier home environment and adopting habits that promote overall well-being. To help you on your journey, here are some tips that will contribute to a more holistically fit lifestyle.

Purify Your Air

Minimizing indoor air pollution can affect how you feel, from reducing asthma triggers to creating a better sleeping environment. Because of this, ensuring good air quality in your home is something you should prioritize. One easy solution is to invest in an air purifier, which can help eliminate many common indoor pollutants. And if you live in a region that gets smoke-filled air from frequent forest fires, an air purifier is a must in the summer and fall months. Additionally, regularly changing your furnace filters can substantially improve your indoor air quality.

Adopt Some Green Friends

Plants don’t just make your home prettier – they also offer some serious health benefits! Certain types, like the snake plant, aloe vera and peace lily, are well-known to clean the indoor air, increase humidity and release oxygen. Plus, introducing plants is a great way to add a relaxing dose of nature to your living space, along with enhancing the air quality.

Make a Shoes-Off Policy

Keeping your shoes at the door is a simple practice that can keep your home cleaner and healthier. Shoes can track in germs, dirt and other outdoor pollutants, not to mention allergens like pollen. Adopting a shoes-off policy can significantly reduce this influx of unwanted substances into your home, improving the overall living environment and potentially contributing to a decreased risk of allergies and illnesses.

Regularly Deep Clean Carpets

Carpet maintenance is not just about keeping up the aesthetic appeal – it’s fundamentally a health measure. Carpets can act like a filter, trapping various airborne particles, including pet dander, dust mites, pollen and other allergens. Although vacuuming helps, it often isn’t enough to remove all these contaminants deeply embedded in the carpet’s fibers. A regular deep clean is necessary to extract these allergens and pollutants fully. Experts recommend a professional cleaning every 12 to 18 months, depending on your carpet’s usage level.

Filter Your Water

Filters can remove contaminants from your water, providing safer and often better-tasting H2O. Clean, fresh water is vital in maintaining good health, so it’s well worth the investment. A reusable pitcher is also a greener and more economical choice than buying plastic bottled water. Plus, there are fantastic pitcher options, from the downright luxurious to the no-frills model.

Room to Exercise, Destress & Create

Repurposing space in your home and creating dedicated areas for physical activity, relaxation and hobbies can significantly influence your health journey. Make a quiet corner ready for workouts, even if it’s just enough space for a yoga mat – it can motivate you to stick to a regular exercise routine. Exercise not only boosts your physical health but also acts as a natural stress reliever. In addition, having a place to unwind and disconnect can considerably improve your mental health. This could be a reading nook, a meditation corner or somewhere to engage in your favorite hobbies and crafts.

Establish a Tech-Free Zone

Consider a kitchen or dining room charging station to keep phones out of bedrooms at night. A tech-free bedroom can help improve sleep quality and promote a better sleep routine and a healthier home. Tempting as it may be, instead of using your phone’s alarm to wake up in the morning, pick out one of these top-rated and stylish alarm clocks.

Remember, living a fit, healthy lifestyle is more than the big gestures – it’s also about the little steps you can take daily. Pick a few from our list and start 2024 off on the right foot!

In a competitive real estate market, you need more than just luck on your side. Whether you’re looking to sell your property or finally get your hands on your dream home, one thing’s for sure – you need the expertise of a seasoned real estate agent who has neighborhood knowledge, market insights, negotiation finesse and experience with contracts and closing details. Working with a real estate agent is your go-to resource when it’s time to buy or sell.

Sharing Local Expertise

When it comes to exploring community lifestyles or marketing a property to the most likely buyer at the right time, real estate agents are the ultimate insiders. They know the market and the area, and also have a network of connections and trusted professionals they can call on to ensure all your real estate goals are met. They’re well-connected in the real estate world, which means they’ve got the scoop on off-market listings and soon-to-be-available properties.

Data-Driven Decision Making

Who doesn’t love a good data-driven strategy? Real estate agents have a treasure trove of tools and technology. Using market data analytics, insights into trends impacting buyers and sellers and a comprehensive Competitive Market Analysis, they can accurately tell you where the opportunities lie and what to expect for pricing, days on the market and more.

Detailed Coordination

Ever felt overwhelmed by the intricacies of buying or selling a property? Working with a real estate agent gives you a personalized approach every step of the way. They will handle placing an offer, coordinating inspections, getting a home ready to list and developing a custom marketing plan. They’ll also connect you with any necessary vendors, including repair specialists or mortgage, title and insurance professionals. With an agent at your side, the intricate processes and complexities become a breeze.

Expert Negotiations

When you’re in the final stages of the game, your real estate agent turns into your personal advocate. They’re armed with data analytics and negotiation strategies that can lead to winning deals and peaceful resolutions. They’ll make sure it’s a smooth process.

Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with inflation?  The answer to this question is key to predicting what happens in 2024.

On the real estate front, the beginning of the year started out good but as interest rates rose substantially volumes dropped off a cliff and prices began falling.  What do the changes mean for residential and commercial real estate in 2024?  Will prices have a larger reset than we are already seeing?

2024 will finally be a big reset in real estate

Regardless of prices, real estate is already in a deep recession, with closing volumes down close to 20 year lows.  At the same time interest rates are remaining above 7.5% (as of this writing).  Late 2023, we started to see the beginning of what is to come in 2024 with values finally starting to come off their epic run in most cities throughout the country.

Three factors that will shape real estate in 2024

Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2024 and beyond: Interest rates, inflation, and consumer sentiment. All three are intertwined as they influence each other, but it is important to discuss each one individually to understand how each unique variable will influence real estate in 2022 and beyond.

Inflation:

Inflation continues to run at almost 2 times the Federal reserve target of 2%.  There should be some break in the continued price acceleration as supply chains “catch up” with demand.  Furthermore, we are seeing in the latest retail numbers that prices are starting to dampen demand a little, which will help.  Unfortunately, there are a few categories that will remain elevated for a while: housing and wages that will factor into the price of goods.

Housing:  As rates have almost tripled from their lows, housing has gotten considerably more expensive due to financing costs.  Furthermore supply continues to be reduced due to the lock in effect.  Remember housing makes up over 30% of the CPI calculation.

Wages also look to continue higher as the work force remains constrained either from retirements or others not reentering the work force for several reasons.  For example, as inflation and wages increase, so does childcare costs which makes it more difficult for many to justify working if they are spending close to what they are making on childcare.  I do not see this issue getting resolved until possibly late 23 which will lead to continued upward pressure on wages, but likely not as much as in 2022 as demand wanes a little.

Interest rates:

The Federal reserve finally came around that inflation is not transitory and as a result they accelerated the wind down of their bond purchases which will put them in a position to pause hiking rates into 2023.   The market has picked up the inflation fight for the fed with long term yields finally heading higher even without additional federal reserve hiking.

Some are predicting a quick reversal in the fed next year.  I do not see this happening as they are forced to hold rates higher for longer due to the stickiness of inflation and huge deficit spending that further increases pressure on yields. The early indicators of rising cardboard prices is a warning that the road ahead will be bumpy on inflation.   These factors will keep mortgage rates in the 6-7% range in 2024.

Consumer Sentiment

Even with huge inflation and predictions of a downturn, the consumer keeps spending.  I think late 23 the consumer starts to get “tired out” and will eventually slow spending down as they work through built up pandemic savings.  This should help slow inflation, but will not lead to a quick reversal.

The recent bank collapses are a wildcard.  So far, the contagion seems to be isolated, but if this spreads consumer confidence will take a large hit.

Multiple macro wildcards to watch in 2024

2024 is a hard year to predict as rates remain high there is increasing probability of something breaking in the economy.  Here are some factors I am watching:

1. Deficit spending/financing: The federal deficit has basically doubled over the last 3 years and all of this must be financed through the treasury market.  As the treasury continues its borrowing rates could continue to spike.  I see no end in site to the current deficit spending which will lead to rates higher for longer
2. Interest rates/inflation: I’m not convinced that we are totally done with inflation, the labor market is still exceptionally strong which will continue upward pressure on wages and in turn products/services.  Rates will have to remain high even in the face of a possible moderate recession
3. What breaks? The federal reserve continues touting a soft landing, in order to accomplish this rates will need to remain higher for longer.  This drastically raises the risk of something breaking.  My first thoughts are commercial real estate and regional banks.  But I don’t think the economy will come out of the high rate environment unscathed.

How the three factors above play out could have substantial implications on real estate, for example if something in the economy breaks bad enough like commercial real estate, we could enter a recession with higher unemployment than anticipated.  My gut says that rates will stay higher for longer due to the tight labor market and increased deficit spending which ultimately will put pressure on commercial and residential real estate prices.

What are my predictions for real estate in 2024?

2024 still looks to be a transition year, but likely will not happen exactly as economists have planned.  Unfortunately, there are more negative than positive risks for real estate heading into the second half of 2024.

In the first half of the year, I do not see the bottom dropping out of prices.  There will be some softening with prices dropping in the 5-10% range, some markets will hold steady while others could still increase further. The real test comes in the second half of the year when consumers exhaust their pandemic savings and the bills come due for all the spending.  

Furthermore interest rates will remain much higher than the market is currently anticipating, which will ultimately lead to a reset in the economy.  

On the commercial side, rising real interest rates will continue to put pressure on cap rates.  Remember that the higher the cap rate the lower the value (they work in inverse to each other.  Office is going to get destroyed with values dropping around 30% overall due to lower demand, higher financing rates, and much higher cap rates.  Retail and Industrial will also come off their highs as cap rates continue to rise to keep up with the rise in treasuries.  Rents will not be able to rise fast enough to compensate for the higher cap rates.

The wild card is what happens late 2024 as higher interest rates continue to dampen demand; furthermore, the federal reserve must hold rates higher for longer which will keep rates from falling back to their lows.  Worst case scenario 10-15% price drops, likely is somewhere under 15% reset in prices.  This will not occur until mid 2024 as the consumer finally comes to terms with increased borrowing costs and slows down their spending. 

Commercial is a different ballgame as  commercial properties are at much higher risk for larger price drops.  For example, large class B office will need a huge reset in prices which could be in the 40%+ range.

Will there be a recession in 2024?

I’m going to put my odds at 75% for a recession in 2024.  As rates remain higher commercial real estate values will plunge which will lead to more bank failures and less lending.  Eventually the lack of liquidity will flow through to consumer spending leading to a slowdown.  Unfortunately, the risks of recession are mounting as there is always a lag in the economy.  Furthermore, I think the market is calling the all clear on inflation a bit too soon and will be in for a rude surprise of higher rates.

Summary:

2024 is going to be a bumpy year in real estate.  We are already seeing signs of this on the residential side with the median prices off 5% in Denver year over year and volumes down 25%. This is just the beginning of the reset in real estate.

Commercial real estate is a whole different animal with rents dropping, vacancy rising, and ultimately prices facing a huge reset especially in the office sector along with multifamily.  If rates remain higher for longer, there will be increasing stress on every commercial property type as cap rates remain elevated.

Anyone in residential or commercial real estate is going to have a tough ride as volumes will stay extremely low throughout the nation until there is a major reset in the economy that forces individuals and businesses to sell and rates to fall substantially.  Long and short 2024 looks like a tough year in real estate that will likely worsen for most compared to 2023.  Fortunately every single cycle creates new opportunities and we can always look forward to 2025

Additional Reading/Resources

• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-02/housing-crisis-gets-worse-for-americans-on-mortgage-lock-in-effect?srnd=premium
• https://car-co.stats.showingtime.com/docs/mmi/x/Statewide?src=map
• https://www.wsj.com/business/the-rising-price-of-cardboard-a-positive-sign-for-the-economy-08908d0f

US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry.  What property types are declining? (hint not just office properties).  What is the only property type that held in positive territory?  Is the recent drop in prices just a blip or the start of a bigger trend?  Why are prices falling now while the economy continues humming along?

What was in the most recent commercial data?

The recent CoStar report, the leading aggregator of commercial data,  showed declines in Office, retail, and apartments.  CoStar has some of the best insight into commercial property values as they also track heavily via Loopnet (largest commercial MLS)

1. THE PRIME INDUSTRIAL INDEX LED GROWTH AMONG THE FOUR MAJOR PROPERTY TYPES. The Prime U.S. Industrial Index was up 2.5% in the first quarter of 2023 and 10.8% in the 12 months ending in March 2023. The equal-weighted U.S. Industrial Index, including a broader mix of asset qualities, underperformed the Prime Index with a modest decline of 0.1% in the quarter. The Prime Industrial Index was the only Prime property type index to hold in positive territory in the first quarter. 
2. MULTIFAMILY INDEX DECLINES. The equal-weighted U.S. Multifamily Index fell by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2023 and dropped 2.2% in the 12 months ending in March 2023. The U.S. Multifamily Index showed the sharpest annual decline in values since the interest rate hiking cycle began in the first quarter of 2022. Debt for multifamily transactions was plentiful and drove investor demand in the sector. The index appreciated by 2.8% in the 12 months ending in March 2023 in Prime Multifamily markets but fell 2.8% in the quarter.
3. OFFICE PRICE DECLINES CONTINUED IN THE FIRST QUARTER. The U.S. Office Index sagged 2.4% in the first quarter of 2023, taking its cumulative decline to minus 5% during the previous three quarters. Office prices were down 1.4% in the 12 months ending in March 2023, marking the first annual decline since the second quarter of 2012. In addition, pricing growth in the Prime Office Index advanced at a negligible pace of 0.4% in the 12 months ending in March 2023 while slumping 2.8% in the quarter.
4. RETAIL PRICING FOOTED SIDEWAYS IN THE FIRST QUARTER. The U.S. Retail Index rose just 0.2% in the first quarter of 2023 and 3.3% in the 12 months ending in March 2023. The tendency of high-profile pair trends to swing the data around at the top end of retail space can lead to strong quarterly fluctuations. The U.S. Prime Retail Index dipped 2.6% in the first quarter while appreciating 12.3% over the year prior. The three-quarter trend in the Prime Retail Index saw values surge 9.9% in the third quarter of 2022 before giving back 2.8% and 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, respectively.

Why is multifamily declining as rents are staying high?

Below I put together a hypothetical analysis of what is occurring in the multifamily sector.  Multifamily was trading at insanely low cap rates while at the same time banking on appreciating rents.  As rents have stagnated or even declined in some markets and interest rates have basically doubled, many apartment deals no longer cash flow and are in trouble.  Furthermore, it is more than likely that a bank holds the note below and that note is now a  big problem for them.  Here is a great article in the Wall Street Journal that shows how this is playing out in real life.

Remember most commercial loans are fixed for 3-5 years and then the rate resets to the market rate (typically 10 year treasury +).  This scenario below is especially difficult:

1. LTV using new cap rate is radically different: No lender today would provide a new loan with the cash flow basically at break even due to the higher rate.
2. Cash flow underwater based on new rate: Assuming the note is current and the lender sold the note, a substantial discount would have to be given to compensate for the ultra-low rate.
3. Even if note is held and renewed a substantial loss would have to be taken by the bank for impairment

Pre Covid
Net Operating Income	$    300,000.00
Value	$ 7,500,000.00	assume a 4 cap
Debt service	$         210,000	5.25m (70% LTV at 4%)
Net Cash Flow	$      90,000.00
Today
Net Operating Income	$    300,000.00
Value	$ 5,454,545.45	assume a 5.5 cap
Debt service	$         315,000	5.25m (70% LTV at 6%)
Net Cash Flow	$    (15,000.00)

Is the recent decline in commercial property values a blip or a trend?

“Lots more price declines are coming,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, said.

The danger is that will compound the difficulties confronting many banks at a time when they are fighting to retain deposits in the face of a steep rise in interest rates over the past year.

Excluding farms and residential properties, banks accounted for more than 60% of the $3.6 trillion in commercial real estate loans outstanding in the fourth quarter of 2022, with smaller institutions particularly exposed, according to the Federal Reserve’s semi-annual Financial Stability Report published last week.

“The magnitude of a correction in property values could be sizable and therefore could lead to credit losses” at banks, the report said.

Summary

The recent declines in commercial properties are not a blip.  They are the beginning of an upcoming cycle with huge resets in prices.  These prices will be most profound in office with big impacts also being felt in larger multifamily.

Based on the current federal reserve predictions, rates will remain elevated at least until around mid-year 2024.  This will exasperate the issue new group of office and multifamily notes come due for a reset leading to cash flow issues in many cases.

The overwhelming majority of commercial loans are held by banks so at the end of the day someone will be taking a haircut that will become self-fulfilling as lenders sit out on new deals due to their own cash flow issues caused by commercial property.  I’m already seeing the credit crunch which will get amplified over the next year with higher rates.

So, you want to find the best rental property deal and invest some hard-earned money.

This is a common query from my readers.

What about the potential to make some serious shekels by becoming the mortgage bank instead of the landlord? Where else besides private mortgages or so-called “hard-money lending” can you find a 10% rate of return in a term of three years?

Hard-money lending is a close cousin to more direct rental investing. It’s worth considering. Why? Certain property owners will pay handsomely because, for one reason or another, they can’t qualify for cheaper institutional financing from commercial banks, Fannie, Freddie and the like.

Typically a hard money loan is arranged and funded for one- to four-unit complexes, small apartment buildings and retail strip malls. An appraisal may be required, and title insurance will always be required to protect all concerned.

“The going market rate is around 10% to 11%,” said Ken Thayer, president of Newport Beach-based Residential First Capital. “Up to 10 people can invest in one fractionalized note. Ten people each put up $100,000 on a $1 million note as an example.”

Thayer, who’s been in the lending business since 1986, said 90% of his deals are for one to four units. Half the deals are seconds with an average loan amount of $300,000 or $600,000 for first mortgages. He typically stays under $3.5 million for any deal.

Private money mortgages, called a deed of trust in California, can be in first, second or third position as a lien against real property.

Thayer’s investment customers pay 1.25% of the balance to service the notes. Servicing fees such as Thayer’s are all over the map. You can find servicers charging less or even a lot less. And, of course, some servicers charge more than 1.25%. For example, if the note to the property owner is 11% and the servicer charges 1%, then the investor would receive a net 10% return excluding ordinary income taxes.

Let’s say five investors are investing $200,000 in a $1 million hard-money loan. If the note rate is 10% and Thayer charges each investor 1.25% to service, each investor would earn 8.75%. Or look at it this way: $200,000 x 8.75% =  $17,500 divided by 12 months $1,458.33 to each investor each month as an interest-only payment.

Even though Thayer services $110 million in hard money loans, he thinks real estate rentals are still a better deal. “I would have made more money sticking it out in real estate,” he told me.

Thayer makes a good point. California homes, even with prices softening, are still riding 25-35% appreciation, which for long-term investors tops most hard-money profits.

My advice: Your best protection against the borrower who is willing to pay you a lot more because he or she can’t get a bank loan is the property’s remaining equity. If there is 50% remaining equity, the investor is relatively safe even if the borrower should default and property values continue to soften. Nobody wants to foreclose, but that offers a measure of protection.

In the current market, I think you’d be better off investing in hard-money loans than an actual rental property for the following reasons:

1) Real estate values are falling. (Nobody wants to catch a falling knife)

2) Carrying costs (mortgage payment of principal, interest, taxes, insurance and any HOA) are currently high.

3) Utility costs are ginormous, cutting into profit

4) California rent forbearances still lurk in these post-COVID days

5) There is talk of national rent “protections”

Back to the money. What about the staying power of these lofty 10% returns on hard-money investing? Can you get an even higher yield if we see more inflation?

Conventional mortgage rates hit an all-time low of 2.65% in January 2021, according to Freddie Mac. Even though rates have much improved over the past few months they are still very high at 6.09% as of Feb. 2.

The prime rate hit a low of 3.25% in March 2020. (December 2008 was the last time the prime rate was this low). On Feb. 1, Wall Street’s prime rate climbed to 7.75%. It hasn’t been that high since September 2007. And it’s all but certain short-term borrowing costs are going to rise more in the near term.

The typical private money loan is two to three years with a balloon payment owed by the property owner at the end, according to attorney Dennis Doss of Doss Law, an expert on private money mortgages.

As Thayer explained, Wall Street money swooped in during the COVID days, bringing cheaper alternatives for borrowers needing hard money, maybe in the 9% range. But that train has left the station. Rates have moved back up.

So, how much more can you get?

“There is no maximum rate (statutory maximum) for brokered-arranged loans,” said Doss. “The rate is market dependent.”

So why not just stick with buying a rental property? Private mortgages require little to no effort on the investor’s part while rental properties require a ton of effort to manage.

How do you know who to invest your money with? Scammers are everywhere.

“For consumers trying to ensure they are working with a good private money broker, we’d suggest they check the broker’s license, talk to references, read online reviews, and get information from Better Business Bureau, chamber of commerce and other community groups,” said Rick Lopes, assistant commissioner with the California Department of Real Estate.

Doss tells investors they should figure out how aggressive the private money broker is when it comes to finding and evaluating properties on which to issue loans. Ask for a copy of the broker’s most recent business activities reports. Check for their borrowers’ delinquency rates, which ideally “should be 5% to 7% or less (60-90 days late or more),” he said.

California law requires a brokerage to review any investor’s suitability to invest in the trust deed based on a questionnaire (California Department of Real Estate form RE870). It looks at the investors’ net worth, income and investment background. The investment does not exceed 10% of the investors’ net worth minus home, furnishings, autos or 10% of their income.

Freddie Mac rate news

The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.09%, 4 basis points lower than last week. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 5.14%, 3 basis points lower than last week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 9% mortgage application decrease from last week.

Bottom line: Assuming a borrower gets the average 30-year fixed rate on a conforming $726,200 loan, last year’s payment was $1,115 less than this week’s payment of $4,396.

What I see: Locally, well-qualified borrowers can get the following fixed-rate mortgages with one point: A 30-year FHA at 4.875%, a 15-year conventional at 4.5%, a 30-year conventional at 5.25%, a 15-year conventional high balance at 4.99% ($726,201 to $1,089,300), a 30-year high balance conventional at 5.625% and a jumbo 30-year fixed at 6.125%.

Note: The 30-year FHA conforming loan is limited to loans of $644,000 in the Inland Empire and $726,200 in LA and Orange counties.

Eye catcher loan program of the week: A 30-year VA fixed rate at 4.875% with 1 point cost.