Search results for Rent

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week along with weekly coverage from our Housing Market Recovery Index and a weekly video update from our economists. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Median listing prices are now growing at 4.6 percent over last year, just above the pace seen pre-COVID.
• New listings are still down 20 percent. More sellers are returning to the market compared to the early COVID period, but fewer than a week ago, and the number of new listings remains below last year levels. New listings typically peak over the next month (mid-June to mid-July). Given the importance of new home listings to sales, to see home sales bounce back, we’ll need to see a later seasonal peak this year.
• Time on market remained 16 days slower than last year as it takes longer to find a buyer and complete a sale in the current markets. Time on market could speed up if buyers continue to outnumber sellers.
• Total inventory was down 27 percent. Signs are pointing to rising home buyer interest, and steeper declines in inventory are on the horizon unless more sellers list homes for sale. 

Data Summary

	Week ending June 13	Week ending June 6	Week ending May 30	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-27% YOY	-25% YOY	-23% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	16 days slower YOY	16 days slower YOY	17 days slower YOY	-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	+4.6% YOY	+4.3% YOY	+3.1% YOY	+4.5% YOY
New Listings	-20% YOY	-21% YOY	-23% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week June 13, 2020

House hunters rushing to lock in record low mortgage rates likely have a bit more time to shop thanks to a pair of announcements from the Federal Reserve this week.

On Wednesday, the Fed’s policy makers said they would maintain the near zero interest rates instituted earlier this year, indicating they expect to keep rates at basement levels through 2022. In its statement, the Fed also said that it would continue aggressively buying government and mortgage-backed bonds at a steady rate to keep markets functioning.

The measures are the most extreme since the 2008 financial crisis and were first announced in mid-March, as steps to limit the spread of the coronavirus wreaked havoc on U.S. businesses and kept house hunters on the sidelines. By reiterating its commitment to these tools, the Fed is indicating that the economy may take longer to recover than hoped, but is also showing that it will take extraordinary measures to help consumers.

“It’s bittersweet,” says Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at home investment startup Haus. “It means there is concern about the U.S. economy’s ability to take off.”

That was certainly the message the stock market took. The Dow plunged more than 1,800 points on Thursday as investors reacted to the Fed’s decision and a spurt of new COVID cases around the country.

What the Fed’s move means for mortgage rates

Low rates from the Fed do mean some good news for homeowners: Mortgage rates are likely to remain near record lows for an extended period. (For the week ending June 11, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.21% with 0.9 discount points paid.)

“The risk of rates trending higher, which is something we were facing no more than a week ago, has almost disappeared,” said Zillow Economist Matthew Speakman.

The expansion of the bond buying program, known as “quantitative easing,” also means that people who want to take out a new mortgage or refinance an existing one should be able to, since mortgage lenders will have an easier time selling on mortgages.

“The Fed’s statement essentially stated they are not going to rock the boat,” wrote Sam Khater, chief economist at mortgage giant Freddie Mac. “The Fed’s stance is positive news for the housing market and allows mortgage rates to drift lower since they have room to decline given mortgage spreads.”

What Khater means by “spread,” is the gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are not directly tied to the federal funds rate, the short term rate the Fed controls. Instead mortgages tend to move in step with the 10-year Treasury note, which responds quickly to Fed statements, since most homeowners typically move or refinance within a decade.

That said, some economists do not expect mortgage rates to sink much lower than they are right now since most mortgage lenders are already operating at capacity. Others warn the record low rates are not available to everyone.

“The rates that we are talking about are the average rates. They apply to your most vanilla loans,” says Speakman. Think 30-year loans for people with excellent credit and who can make a 20% downpayment. “For others, it is still really challenging to get that credit.” 

https://money.com/fed-move-mortgage-rates/

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Total inventory was down 23%. Signs are pointing to rising home buyer interest, and steeper declines in inventory are on the horizon unless more sellers list homes for sale.  
• Time on market was 17 days slower than last year as it takes longer to find a buyer and complete a sale in the current markets.
• New listings down 23%. With fewer sellers returning to the market compared to a week ago, the yearly declines in new listings remain roughly steady, suggesting that while the general trend is toward improvement, it’s a bumpy road and seller confidence is not quite back to normal yet.  
• Median listing prices have maintained momentum and growth is now closer to pre-COVID levels.

Data Summary

	Week ending May 30	Week ending May 23	Week ending May 16	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-23% YOY	-22% YOY	-20% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	17 days slower YOY	16 days slower YOY	15 days slower YOY	4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	3.1% YOY	3.1% YOY	1.5% YOY	+4% YOY
New Listings	-23% YOY	-20% YOY	-28% YOY	+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View

New listings: On the slow path to recovery. Nationwide the size of declines held mostly steady this week, dropping 23 percent over last year, a slight increase over last week but still an improvement over the 30 percent declines in the first half of May. 

More properties will have to enter the market in June to bring the number of options for buyers back to normal levels for this time of the year, nationwide and in all large markets. 
In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending May 16, May 23, and May 30 the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 28 percent, 20 percent, and 23 percent year-over-year, respectively. The continued declines in newly listed properties mean we’ve yet to see the full wave of spring sellers return to the market. However, recovery could be on the horizon as three quarters (36 of 99) of large metros continue to see smaller declines this week, including New York and Chicago.

Asking prices: Price gains keep momentum as the mix of homes for-sale continues to revert back toward pricier properties.

In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending May 16, May 23, and May 30, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of 1.5, 3.1 and 3.1 percent year-over-year, respectively. While current price gains remain below pre COVID-19 levels, we expect them to continue accelerating in the weeks to come as more sellers regain confidence and inventory remains limited relative to buyer interest. Locally, 81 of the largest 100 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.

Total Active Listings: Sellers have yet to come back in full force, limiting the availability of homes for sale. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks, and this trend could worsen as buyers regain confidence and come back to the market before sellers.

Weekly data show total active listings declined 23 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Signs, such as more purchase mortgage applications than last week and a year ago, are pointing to rising home buyer interest, and steeper declines in inventory are on the horizon unless more sellers list homes for sale to meet rising demand. 

Time on market: While new listings and asking prices are gaining momentum, homes are still sitting over two weeks longer on the market than this time last year. It could take a few more weeks for time on market to reach pre-COVID levels as buyers come back to the market and the pace of sales resumes.
In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 30 showed that time on market was 17 days or 30 percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. With fewer fresh new properties and buyers taking their time in this strange new world of home searching, sellers should be prepared to wait longer to find a buyer and longer for the transaction to close as well. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 85 of the largest 100 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago. However, more markets continue to see smaller single-digit increases and could see time on market drop in June, including Dallas, San Francisco and Nashville.

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 30, 2020

Bloomberg) — It’s the surprise of a spring selling season that’s been anything but normal: Buyers returning to the housing market have been battling over the few available properties.

While sales are way down, the lack of inventory has propped up prices and led to bidding wars, even as economic fallout from the pandemic mounts and real estate agents adjust to new public health guidelines that have made it more difficult to market homes.

“Since the pandemic began, demand fell off a cliff,” said Taylor Marr, an economist at Redfin Corp. “What most people overlook is that sellers also pulled back.”

The supply-demand imbalance meant that roughly 40% of homebuyers that Redfin agents worked with recently faced competition when they tried to purchase a home. The rate was even higher in cities like San Francisco, Boston and even Fort Worth, Texas, where more than 60% of properties the company’s clients bid on received multiple offers.

The U.S. housing market went into the Covid crisis with a supply shortage that was driving up prices beyond the reach of many buyers, even with years of low interest rates. That problem hasn’t gone away, despite the economic uncertainty. The number of active listings shrank by almost a quarter in April, compared with a year earlier, according to Redfin.

Still, the market has cooled. Sales of existing homes are projected to fall 20% in April from a month earlier, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would follow an 8.5% drop in March. Construction of new houses plunged by the most on record in April, with builders waiting out the virus. That means new supply will be slower to materialize.

The market dynamics are a shock to some buyers. Kenzo Teves, a 24-year-old business analyst for a pharmaceutical company, decided to start shopping for his first house this spring, because interest rates were so low. He had money saved for a down payment and was secure in his job — factors he thought would help him find a home near Boston.

In late April, he made his first bid on a three-bedroom house in Chelsea, Massachusetts, that was listed for $420,000. The property got six other offers and even bidding $30,000 over the asking price wasn’t enough to cinch the deal.

“It’s pretty strange,” he said. “I would have thought that it would have tipped more to my favor as a buyer.”

The inventory shortage is being felt in smaller cities, too. Kim Park, an agent with Keller Williams Realty in Boise, Idaho, said her business is down about 20% because sales have slowed. But bargains are still hard to find.

She’s working with a young family with two kids and a rental lease coming up for renewal next month. To buy a house for almost $300,000, they had to fight off three other bidders and pay $10,000 above asking price, Park said. They got it only because the winning bidder’s financing fell through.

Homeowners in Boise are staying put, worried about about letting potential buyers in during the pandemic or upgrading to a more expensive property when employment is so tenuous.

“It’s made our tight market that much tighter,” Park said.

In Los Angeles, Sally Forster Jones said two of her clients bid unsuccessfully this month on two different houses. One was listed for about $800,000 and the other for less than $1.5 million. Each received more than 30 offers and are now in escrow at above the listed price. Jones declined to share specifics on the homes because her clients made backup offers and she doesn’t want to invite more competition.

“I’m encouraging my sellers to put their property back on the market,” she said. “The fact that there’s limited inventory is to their advantage right now.”

Not all real estate agents see cutthroat competition. Nina Hatvany, a luxury agent with Compass in San Francisco, said buyers are coming back to the market but the complications of showing houses during a pandemic has weeded out all but the most motivated people. And, even then, there’s sometimes a mismatch between what people think a property is worth.

“I’ve got plenty of buyers saying, ‘I’m ready to buy if it’s a good price,’” she said. Meanwhile, “the sellers are worried about taking a big hit.”

Home prices will hold up, at least through the summer, but declines are coming, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Once foreclosure moratoriums and forbearance programs end, lenders will start repossessions as unemployment persists. Ultimately, as many as 2 million homeowners will lose properties because of the the pandemic, he said.

In the near term, buyers are going to have to slug it out, especially for the types of property that are most in demand. Redfin’s data show that houses listed below $1 million were the most competitive, partly because banks have tightened standards for jumbo loans, said Marr. With everyone sheltering in place, buyers are also more eager to buy single-family houses than condos.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/bidding-wars-back-even-housing-150005227.html

Continuing our research into the Real Estate market and our expectations over the next 6+ months or longer, we want to point out the disconnect between the current US stock market rally and the forward expectations related to the real economy.  Our researchers believe the current data from Realtor.com as well as forward expectations suggest a major shift related to “at-risk” real estate (both commercial and residential).

Unlike the 2008-09 credit crisis, the COVID-19 virus event is quickly disrupting consumer engagement within the global economy and disrupting spending activities.  Spending is shifting to online, fast food, and technology services for those that still have an income.  For those that have lost their jobs, spending is centered around surviving the COVID-19 virus event and hoping to see new opportunities and jobs when things open back up.

The coronavirus-fueled economic downturn is hitting homeowners hard. And the worst may be yet to come.

2008-09 Real Estate Price Collapse Chart

The biggest difference between 2008-09 and now is that the Real Estate sector is not the driving force behind the economic collapse – it is part of the collateral damage of the COVID-19 virus event related to failed consumer businesses, loss of jobs, disruption to the consumer economy and the destruction of income for many.  Yes, for a while, some people will be able to keep things together and “hold on” while hoping the economy comes back to life quickly.  Others won’t be so lucky.

The one aspect of all of this that people seem to fail to understand is the shift in consumer mentality related to the shifting economic environment.  Right now, consumers are dealing with the shock of job losses, the virus crisis itself and what the future US and global economy may look like.  Many people fail to understand that we really don’t know what the recovery process will become or when it will start.  Yes, we are making progress in trying to contain the COVID-19 virus, but the process of rebuilding the global economy to anywhere near the early 2020 levels is still many months away and full of potential collateral damage events.

Multi-Sector Price Trend Chart (Daily)

To help illustrate how the markets are reacting to the optimism of capital being poured into the global economy vs. the reality of the Consumer and Financial sectors, this chart highlights the SPY (BLUE) current price activity vs the NASDAQ 100 Financial Sector (GREEN) and the Consumer Discretionary sector (GOLD).  The SPY recently disconnected from a very close correlation to the other sectors near mid-April – about 2 weeks after the US Fed initiated the stimulus program.  The S&P, NASDAQ, and DOW Industrials have benefited from this disconnect by attracting new investments while the Consumer and Financial sectors have really started to come under moderate pricing pressure.

Concluding Thoughts:

We believe this disconnect is related to the perceived reality of certain investors vs. other types of investors.  Institutional traders may be pouring capital into the US major market indexes while more conservative traders are waiting out the “unknowns” before jumping into the global markets.  We believe the extended volatility will create waves of opportunity as capital rotates between sectors attempting to find new opportunities for quick gains.

We also believe the unknown collateral damage processes will present very real risks over the next 6+ months as the markets seek out a real bottom.

A recent MarketWatch article suggests a new mortgage crisis in inevitable given the disruption to the US economy and consumer’s ability to earn income and service debt levels.

Pay attention.  These recent rallies in the US major indexes may not be painting a very clear picture of the risks still present in the US economy.  It is almost like speculation is driving prices higher while economic data suggest major collateral damage is still unknown.  We suggest reviewing this research article for more details:

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-showing-signs-collateral-141407308.html

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Total inventory was down 19%. If new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week
• Time on market was 13 days slower than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013
• New listings down 29%. Declines persist nationwide but momentum shifts in a positive direction 
• Median listing prices are still growing at a slower pace than pre-COVID, but they may regain momentum in the weeks to come

Data Summary

	Week ending May 9	Week ending May 2	Week ending April 25	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-19% YOY	-19% YOY	-17% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	13 days slower YOY	11 days slower YOY	9 days slower YOY	-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	1.4% YOY	1.6% YOY	1.6% YOY	+4% YOY
New Listings	-29% YOY	-39% YOY	-43% YOY	+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View

• New listings: Headed in the right direction? After a few weeks near -40 percent, the decline in newly listed for-sale homes took another step in the right direction nationwide with the size of declines down just less than 30 percent. We still see fewer sellers putting homes up for sale than last spring nationwide and in all large markets, which is unsurprising in this challenging market, but the momentum has shifted in a positive direction.
  In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 25, May 2, and May 9, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 43 percent, 39 percent, and 29 percent year-over-year, respectively. The continued declines in newly listed properties mean that we’ve yet to see supply turn back to normal. However, some improvement could be on the horizon as nearly three-quarters (75 of 97) of large metros are seeing smaller declines, including the three largest markets in the country New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.
• Asking prices: Sellers look for minimal home price growth, and the mix of homes for-sale appears to be reverting back toward pricier properties. 
  In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 25, May 2, and May 9, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of 1.6, 1.6 and 1.4 percent year-over-year, respectively. While current price gains remain below pre COVID-19 levels, we expect them to regain momentum in the weeks to come as sellers regain confidence and buyers slowly resume activity. Locally, 70 of 99 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.
• Total Active Listings: Countervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions, but so far the momentum limiting homes for sale is winning out. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks.
  Weekly data show total active listings declined 19 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, if new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week, especially if home buyers wade back into the market.
• Time on market: Time on market continues to show the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers. Time on market rose by double-digit percent growth nationwide and in three-quarters of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 9 showed that time on market was 13 days or 19percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is further confirmation of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 84 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago. 

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 9, 2020

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Total inventory was down 19%. If new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week.
• Time on market was 11 days slower than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013.
• New listings were down 39%. Declines persist but seem to have roughly stabilized nationwide.

Data Summary

	Week ending May 2	Week ending April 25	Week ending April 18	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-19% YOY	-17% YOY	-15% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	11 days slower YOY	9 days slower YOY	6 days slower YOY	-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	1.6% YOY	1.6% YOY	0.3% YOY	+4% YOY
New Listings	-39% YOY	-43% YOY	-42% YOY	+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View

• Total Active Listings: Countervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions, but so far the momentum limiting homes for sale is winning out. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks.
  Weekly data show total active listings declined 19 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings and decrease in the previous momentum of buyer appetite outpacing housing supply; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, if new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week.
• Time on market: Time on market continues to show the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers. Time on market rose by double-digit percent growth nationwide and in three-quarters of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 2 showed that time on market was 11 days or 19percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is further confirmation of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 75 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago.
• New listings: Flattening the curve? Declines in newly listed for-sale homes persist but seem to have roughly stabilized nationwide with the size of declines remaining roughly the same in the last three weeks. Drops in newly listed homes are widespread, with all (98 of 98) large metros registering a smaller number of new listings than this time last year. Persistent declines still show that many sellers are reevaluating or postponing sales rather than wading into the current uncertain housing market.In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 18, and April 25, and May 2, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 42 percent, 43 percent and 39 percent year-over-year, respectively. Near steady declines in newly listed properties in the last few weeks suggest we’ve yet to see supply turn back to normal. However, some improvement could be on the horizon as more than two thirds (70 of 98) of large metros are seeing smaller declines, including large markets like Dallas, Chicago and Atlanta. 
• Asking prices: Sellers look for minimal home price growth, and the mix of homes for-sale continues to be shifted toward more lower-priced homes. In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 18, and April 25, and May 2, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of just 0.3, 1.6 and 1.6 percent year-over-year, respectively, registering some of the slowest pace of growth since 2013. This slight reacceleration suggests listing prices may regain momentum in the weeks to come as sellers regain confidence and buyers slowly resume activity. Locally, 65 of 99 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.
  So far we’re seeing a smaller share of asking price reductions compared to this time last year in the U.S. and most (92 of 100) of top metro areas, suggesting that while sellers aren’t pushing asking prices, they aren’t quick to reduce them. Additionally, high-cost areas such as the northeast have seen some strong seller reactions–de-listings and fewer new listings–which has shifted the distribution of homes for sale nationwide toward a lower price point. 

Post-COVID Trends in Mortgage-Financed Primary Home Purchases

• As dissected by my colleague, Sabrina Speianu, in the first month post-COVID-19, mortgage data** shows little change in trends by age group despite the major shifts in the housing market. Primary home purchases by Gen Z and Millennials are on the rise while Gen X, Boomers, and the Silent Generation are purchasing a smaller share of homes with mortgages. Similar trends are observed when looking at the generational shares of mortgage dollar volume.
• Home purchase prices are rising the most for younger generations with Millennials seeing a 9 percent increase and Gen Z seeing purchase prices rise 13 percent. For the first-time, the median purchase price for Millennials ($280,800) is approximately equal to that of Baby Boomers ($282,000).
• Perhaps as a result of low mortgage rates which may have caused younger buyers to pursue homes with higher purchase prices, average down payments have slid for Millennial and Gen-Z buyers in 2020, down to 7.8 percent for Millennials. Along with higher purchase prices and lower down payments, loan amounts are rising fastest for younger borrowers, with Gen Z seeing an 11 percent increase in median loan amount and Millennials seeing a nearly 15 percent increase.  
• Shares of home purchasing by generation show warmer areas gaining purchase share, especially among Boomers and Gen-Xers, and Charlotte, Denver, and Phoenix metro areas saw gains across generations.
• Dense metros in the Northeast and Midwest, especially New York and Detroit that have been hard-hit by COVID, saw decreasing shares of home buyers across generations.

Metro Areas Seeing Gains in Home Purchase Shares, by Generation
Baby Boomers	Gen X	Millennials
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY

Metro Areas Seeing Declines in Home Purchase Shares, by Generation
Baby Boomers	Gen X	Millennials
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA	New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA	New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	St. Louis, MO-IL	Los-Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
Kansas City, MO-KS	Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
St. Louis, MO-IL	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA	Kansas City, MO-KS

*Some data points for Los Angeles and Virginia Beach have been excluded due to data unavailability.

** Note: This report does not have a view of changes in generational trends among the cash-buying segment of home purchasers since its primary data source is loan origination data.

You can download weekly housing market data from our data page.

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 2, 2020

Americans are returning to the housing market, as evidenced by a jump in applications for mortgages to purchase homes, though not at the same level as last year.

A seasonally adjusted index measuring purchase applications rose 6% in April’s last week, compared to the prior week, according to a report Wednesday from Mortgage Bankers Association.

Purchase volume increased for the third week in a row, led by strong growth in Arizona, Texas and California, according to Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist.

We’re still not back to where we were during last year’s spring market, he said, as about half of U.S. states begin resuming some level of economic activity amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Although purchase activity remains almost 19% below year-ago levels, this annualized deficit has decreased as more states reopen amidst the apparent, pent-up demand for homebuying,” Fratantoni said.

MBA’s overall index measuring purchase and refinance applications advanced 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from a week earlier while the group’s refinance index decreased 2% from the previous week – though it remained 210% higher than the same week a year ago.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 70% of all applications from 72% the previous week, Fratantoni said.

Some of the decline in refi applications is due to pandemic-related job losses that restrict a homeowner’s ability to apply for a new loan, and some has to do with the terms of the mortgages lenders are offering.

“Despite lower rates, refinance applications dropped, as many lenders are offering higher rates for refinances than for purchase loans, and others are suspending the availability of cash-out refinance loans because of their inability to sell them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” Fratantoni said.

The share of applications for mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration fell to 11.1% from 11.5% a week earlier, the report said. The share for home loans backed by the Veterans Administration remained unchanged at 13.3%.

Americans are buying homes again, mortgage data shows

Buying a property in Chicago is still considered as a good real estate investment. We’ll be discussing the latest Chicago housing market trends to find out how they can affect the investors and homebuyers in 2020. Chicago metropolitan area or Chicagoland, is an area that includes the city of Chicago and its suburbs.

Although the most expensive home in the Chicago housing market in 2020 is a $45 million single family home, located in the North Side neighborhood, there are many properties available around the median price of $247,000.

In 2018, the Chicago real estate appreciation rate was running at about half the national rate; at 3 percent range when the nation was at 6 percent. After cooling off, Chicago became the weakest housing market of 2019. The home prices grew by mere 1.5 percent, lagging behind the nation. The market is now expected to heat up in the coming months.

Chicago is still a strong renter’s market. Over 50% of the populations rents in this city. So if you buy a Chicago real estate investment to use as a rental property, you could benefit in this market. Although the recent population loss has been a concern for real estate investors, Chicago is still the most populous city in the Midwestern United States. About three million people live in Chicago and another ten million in the surrounding metro area. Chicago MSA is the third largest metropolitan area in the U.S.

It has a large population, diverse economy, and a stable market. It is home to 32 Fortune 500 companies, with a very high private sector employment. Chicago’s 58 million domestic and international visitors in 2018 made it the second most visited city in the nation, as compared with New York City’s 65 million visitors in 2018.

How is the robust housing market in Chicago shaping up in 2020 for real estate investors as well as home buyers? Well, the home prices are expected to flatten nationwide, increasing by just 0.8%, and buyers will continue to move to affordability, benefiting mid-sized markets. However, the real estate appreciation rate in Chicago in the latest quarter was around 1.29% which equates to an annual appreciation forecast of roughly between 5% to 6%.

For sellers in Chicago, a nice profit could be on the horizon. Even small changes in the appreciation rate can change the long-term value of buying considerably. Let’s learn more about the factors that make Chicago a nice place to invest in real estate.

What Makes Chicago Real Estate Market Attractive For Investment?

Chicago was ranked first in the 2018 Time Out City Life Index (Time Out Group).On the UBS list of the world’s richest cities.Often rated as having the most balanced economy in the United States.Ranked seventh in the entire world in the 2017 Global Cities Index.Home to 12 Fortune Global 500 companies and 17 Financial Times 500 companies.Third-largest gross metropolitan product in the United States.Strong Rental Market – Over 50% of the population rents.Fully renovated single family homes with great ROI.Solid blue-collar areas with high rents.High private sector employment.Major transportation hub in the United States.It has largest number of federal highways & railroads in the nation.Strong economic and job growth.Chicago tourism recorded 55 million visitors in 2017.The tourism and hospitality industries have added thousands of jobs, generating billions of dollars in direct spending by visitors.International hub for finance, culture, commerce, industry, education, technology, telecommunications, and transportation.2% increase in Chicago’s government employment between November 2018 to November 2019 (Bls.gov).

These are just some of the highlights that make Chicago a great place to live and invest in real estate. The list can go on and on. Chicago is a also a major world financial center, having the second-largest central business district in the United States. Let’s continue to explore the city’s housing market to understand what it will look like in 2020.

Real estate prices are deeply cyclical because its demand side is impacted by economic cycles, and also because demand has historically outweighed supply. Much of it is dependent on factors you can’t control. Therefore, there are many variables that can potentially impact the value of real estate in Chicago in 2020 (or any other market) and some of these variables are impossible to predict in advance.

Chicago Real Estate Market Forecast 2020 – 2021

The Chicago housing market is shaping up to continue the trend of the last few years as one of the hottest markets in the United States. It is also one of the hottest real estate markets for investing in rental properties.

What are the Chicago real estate market predictions for 2020? Let us look at the price trends recorded by Zillow over the past few years. Since 2015, the median home prices in Chicago have appreciated by roughly 20.5% from $205,000 to $246,933, according to Zillow’s data.

As you can see in the graph, the Chicago housing market was weak in 2019, essentially flat. In fact, November was the third straight month that home values grew by less than 1 percent, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. In the November report, Chicago’s home price growth was the weakest among the 20 major U.S. cities that the index tracks.

In the last twelve months, the Chicago real estate has appreciated by 0.3%. Chicago is expected to see home prices gains in 2020, albeit at a softer pace compared to the nation’s largest markets. The latest Chicago real estate market forecast is that the home prices will rise by 3.2% – in the next twelve months.

The latest real estate data from Zillow shows that the current median home value in Chicago is $246,933. This indicates that home prices in Chicago are well above the national average for all cities and towns in the United States.

Here is a snapshot that shows the median home values in the some of the popular neighborhoods in or around Chicago.

Chicago is currently a warm seller’s real estate market. This indicates that there are more real estate buyers in the Chicago than there are sellers. When demand is higher than the supply, home prices increase, which benefits sellers. Zillow reports that 14.5% of the listings in Chicago had a price cut in Jan 2020.

Here is the Chicago real estate price appreciation graph by Zillow. It shows us the current home price appreciation forecast of 3.2% till Feb 2021.

Chicago Housing Market Forecast 2021

Here is a short and crisp Chicago housing market forecast for the 3 years ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2021. The accuracy of this forecast for Chicago is 84% and it is predicting a positive trend. The LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising home prices in Chicago is 84% during this period. If this price forecast is correct, the Chicago home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2018.

Chicago Real Estate Market Trends – Prices, Inventory & Sales

Analyzing real estate data from multiple sources gives us a much broader perspective of the direction in which a market is moving. We shall now discuss some of the most recent housing trends in the Chicago area from multiple sources and compare it with past couple of years. We shall mainly discuss about median home prices, inventory, growth and neighborhoods, which will help you understand the way the local real estate market moves in this region.

Chicago is the 6th most walkable city in the nation. Chicago metro area has a population of approximately 8,865,000, a 0.03% increase from 2019. It is the most populous city in the U.S. state of Illinois, and the third-most-populous city in the United States. 

On average, homes in Chicago, IL sell after 86 days on the market. The trend for median days on market in Chicago, IL is flat since last month, and slightly up since last year.Chicago’s home resale inventories is 6,505, which is a decrease of 15% since last year, according to Movoto.com. The median list price per square foot in Chicago is $258. In March 2020 it was $259. Distressed properties such as foreclosures and short sales remained the same as a percentage of the total market in April.In terms of months of supply, the Chicago market can tip to favor buyers if the supply increases to more than six months of inventory. However, looking at the current trends, we don’t see things moving in that direction. For upcoming updates you can check visit their website. It is expected that there will be some improvement on the inventory crisis. Certain areas in the Chicago housing market would see more properties for sale on the market than other locations.

According to Neighborhoodscout.com, a real estate data provider, one and two bedroom large apartment complexes are the most common housing units in Chicago. Other types of housing that are prevalent in Chicago include single-family detached homes, duplexes, row houses and homes converted to apartments.

At the national level, the single family rental homes have grown up to 30% within the last three years. Almost all the housing demand in the US in recent years has been filled by single family rental units. With 2020 being, theoretically, in the middle of a boom, there’s still 4 years for residential construction to surge. Most likely, a housing shortage will remain in 2020, keeping home prices high.

Chicago has a mixture of owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing units. Trulia has currently 9,413 resale and new homes for sale in Chicago, IL including open houses, and homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. The median sales price is $280,000 and homes are selling for about $235/sqft.

Currently, there are 2617 homes for sale in Chicago on Zillow, an online real estate database company. Additionally, there are 292 homes for rent. Under potential listings, there are about 257 Foreclosed and 3000 Pre-Foreclosure homes. These are the delinquent properties that may be coming to the market soon but are not yet found on a multiple listing service (MLS).

• The median list price per square foot in Chicago is $243, which is higher than the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin Metro average of $165.
• The median price of current listings is $329,000.
• The median price of homes that are sold out is $303,400.
• The median rent price in Chicago is $1,761, which is higher than the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin Metro median of $1,685.

There are currently 13,932 homes for sale and 14,751 homes for rent in Chicago, IL on Realtor.com, a real estate listings website. According to their statistics, in February 2020 the Chicago housing market was a buyer’s market, which means there were roughly more active homes for sale than there were buyers.

However, as per other real estate data companies, Chicago would fully transition into a warm seller’s market, having a positive price appreciation forecast for the next twelve months.

Ideally a buyer would prefer a sale to asking price ratio that’s closer to 90%. The sellers in Chicago have managed to hold good leverage in these negotiations in the past month. On an average, they could sell homes for 97.74% of the asking price. A seller would always prefer scenarios which can yield a ratio of 100% or higher.

• In February 2020, the median list price of homes in Chicago was $339,900, trending up 4.6% year-over-year.
• The median listing price per square foot was $233.
• The median sale price was $289,900.
• The median rent price was $1,950.

The asking price of single family homes in Chicago can start from $10,000 and can go up to $45M for a luxury property located in North Side neighborhood . There are currently 712 newly listed homes and 197 new construction houses available for sale in the Chicago housing market.

Lincoln Park has a median listing price of $675,000, making it the most expensive neighborhood in Chicago. Auburn Gresham is the most affordable neighborhood, with a median listing price of $175,000.

Homes For Sale in Chicago	13932
Homes For Rent in Chicago	14751
Median Listing Price	$339,900
Median Sale Price	$289,900
Sale to Asking Price Ratio	97.74%
Median Rent	$1,950
New Listings	712
New Construction Houses	197
Median List Price/Sq Ft	$233
Home Price Range	$10k to $45M
Most Expensive Neighborhood	Lincoln Park
Most Affordable Neighborhood	Auburn Gresham

Chicago, IL Foreclosures And Bank Owned Homes Statistics 2020

As per the Chicago foreclosure data by Zillow, the percent of delinquent mortgages in Chicago is 1.3%, which is higher than the national value of 1.1%. The percent of Chicago homeowners underwater on their mortgage is 21.4%, which is higher than Chicago-Naperville-Elgin Metro at 13.5%.

There are currently 4,445 properties in Chicago, IL that are in some stage of foreclosure (default, auction or bank owned) while the number of homes listed for sale on RealtyTrac is 5,143. In February 2020, the number of properties that received a foreclosure filing in Chicago, IL was 6% lower than the previous month and 6% lower than the same time last year.

Potential Foreclosures in Chicago	4445 (RealtyTrac)
Homes for Sale in Chicago	5143
Recently Sold	17917
Median List Price	$285,000 (2% rise vs Jan 2019)

In Chicago, the zip code with the highest foreclosure rate is 60643, where 1 in every 403 housing units is foreclosed. 60644 zip code has the lowest foreclosure rate, where 1 in every 562 housing units becomes delinquent.

Is Chicago a Good Place To Invest in Real Estate?

Now that you know where Chicago is, you probably want to know why we’re recommending it to real estate investors. Is Chicago a Good Place Real Estate Investment? Investing in real estate is touted as a great way to become wealthy. Many real estate investors have asked themselves if buying a rental property in Chicago is good investment?

You need to drill deeper into local trends if you want to know what the market holds for the year ahead. We have already discussed the Chicago housing market 2020 forecast for answers on why to put resources into this market.

Purchasing an investment property in Chicago real estate is a little different from shopping for your car or primary residence. While you still want to get the most for your money, if you are looking to make a profit, you don’t want to buy the most expensive property on the Chicago real estate market and expect to make a good profit on rents.

Perhaps you are looking for a slightly different hold-over, a turnkey investment property in Chicago that you might move into or sell at retirement in the future! Either way, knowing your profit potential and purpose is the first thing to consider.

Let’s take a look at the number of positive things going on in the Chicago real estate market which can help investors who are keen to buy an investment property in this city.

1. Strong Rental Market

What makes Chicago such a hot market for rental real estate? Over 50% of the population rents. The large population of renters means that rental income for properties is far better than you’d see if you invested elsewhere in the country. Schaumberg reported slowing sales simply due to tight supply according due to data from the Chicago Association of Realtors; this drives many people forming new households or moving into the area to rent at whatever the market will bear.

2. Luxury Rentals Are a Profitable Niche in Chicago

Many people know that there are solid blue-collar areas with high rents, but it isn’t just the working class that rents townhomes and condos. According to Crain’s, the number of upper income households in Cook County that rent has nearly doubled over the past ten years.

The Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University found that the number of rental households among those earning at least $132,000 a year nearly doubled, while those earning $80,000 to $132,000 saw the number of renting households increase by just over 50%. Chicago has a booming supply of high end rentals, especially luxury apartments in downtown.

3. Chicago Real Estate Prices Are Reasonable

Because households at all income levels choose to rent instead of buy, they are reducing demand for houses for sale, slowing the rise in home prices. This also explains why housing prices haven’t skyrocketed despite limited supply. Chicago’s inventory of homes for sale is very tight. Both attached and detached single family home inventory has been declining since 2012.

At the end of 2017, potential buyers in Chicago had about five thousand fewer properties on the market to select from than if they’d been shopping at the end of 2016. This contributed to homes closing five days faster than the year before. If you start shopping for rental real estate, you could find something and rent it out.

4. Home Prices Are Appreciating

Chicago’s real estate market has been one of the slowest to recover since the housing bubble burst at the start of the Great Recession. Home prices were 19% below their pre-crash levels in 2017, and they aren’t expected to hit peak values until 2020.

This means that the Chicago real estate market is likely going to continue its slow, upward market trend. Trulia expects prices to grow about 2.5% in 2018. Trends in Chicago show a 1% year-over-year rise in median sales price and a 3% rise in median rent per month.

5. Rehabbed Homes Are Readily Available

Chicago is seeing a surge in fully renovated single family homes. The Chicago Association of Realtors’ data found that most of the strong suburbs are on the south side of Chicago, and this is where many homes are being rehabbed and sold. Calumet Heights is in this category; a quarter of properties sold were either rehabbed or candidates for rehabilitation. These properties are ideal for investors who want to buy a property to rent out.

6. Job Growth Keeps People Coming

Chicago is not only home to a number of corporate headquarters; there has been a recent trend of companies moving their headquarters to Chicago as well. The steady increase in jobs has contributed to a slow but steady increase in rents. Many businesses are attracted by Chicago’s labor pool, the largest in the nation. As these businesses move into the area and attract relocating professionals, many are forced to rent because they can’t find houses fast enough in the areas they want to live or simply choose to rent upon relocation in one of the luxury apartments downtown.

The Chicago metropolitan area is made up of four metropolitan divisions—separately identifiable employment centers within the larger metropolitan area. In the greater Chicago metropolitan area, education and health services had the largest employment gain from November 2018 to November 2019, adding 15,600 jobs. The Chicago area’s 2.1-percent rate of job growth in education and health services was lower than the nationwide advance of 2.9 percent.

Chicago’s government supersector added 10,800 jobs from November 2018 to November 2019. Local job growth was concentrated in educational services, which added 10,600 jobs. The 2.0-percent increase in Chicago’s government employment compared to a gain of 0.7 percent nationally.

7. Churn Keeps People Renting

Chicago’s unemployment rate has gone up while dropping in other cities as jobs shift from Chicago to the suburbs. This economic uncertainty keeps many who can afford to buy a home renting. It also keeps the rental market itself strong, since many want to remain free to follow their jobs as required.

8. Trump’s Tax Plan Makes Many Reluctant to Buy – Unless It Is a Rental

Uncertainty about the deductibility of hefty property tax bills is making many reluctant to buy a home, though this is less of an issue for a real estate investor who will rent out the property. Chicago and its suburbs have some of the highest property taxes in the nations. Around 12% of Chicago area homes have a tax bill of more than $10,000 a year. Yet that’s better than some of the most expensive real estate markets in the country.

For example, in New York, more than 20% of homes have a property tax bill that high. In Orange County, California, more than half would. This means that limits or the loss of property tax deductions won’t hurt Chicago as badly as it would California or New York, and if it does have an impact, it will mostly be at the higher end of the Chicago real estate market.

9. You Can Find Hot Single Family Markets with Rapid Appreciation

Home prices in the Chicago area are low compared to regional income. Yet economic uncertainty and shifts in the employment market are leaving many who want to live in a single family home unable to afford to buy one. This is causing many to rent single family homes instead.

Crain’s April real estate report found that the hottest markets for detached single family homes were in Calumet Heights, Gage Park and West Ridge. However, home prices are low compared to rents almost everywhere in the Chicago metropolitan area.

10. There Are Opportunities in Chicago Multi-Family Housing, Too

The workforce in Chicago is shifting from high paying but slow-to-no growth manufacturing jobs to lower paying and less stable retail, business services and healthcare jobs. This is causing many who would have been able to afford a middle class home to rent apartments instead. Crain’s April real estate report stated that the hottest Chicago markets for condos and townhomes were Grand Boulevard, Kenwood and Lincoln Square.

Investing in Chicago Real Estate: Advice For New Buyers

Maybe, you have done a bit of real estate investing in Chicago, IL but want to take things further and make it into more than a hobby on the side. It’s only wise to think about how you can and should be investing your money. In any property investment, cash flow is gold. Should you consider Chicago real estate investment?

In Chicago, arts and culture abound at top institutions like The Art Institute. Although the winters can test anyone’s resolve, Chicago summers are among the best in the world, with things to do every weekend, outdoor festivals, and Lake Michigan at your doorstep.

Chicago has an incredibly deep pool of potential renters at all levels of the market. A number of factors guarantee that they’re not going to turn into new home buyers any time soon. Chicago real estate market is a prime destination for investors who would like to buy where the ROI is going to be high and likely to improve over time. It won’t be long before Chicago makes you feel right at home.

A good cash flow from Chicago rental property means the investment is, needless to say, profitable. A bad cash flow, on the other hand, means you won’t have money on hand to repay your debt. Therefore, finding a best investment property in Chicago in a growing neighborhood would be a key to your success.

If you invest wisely in Chicago real estate, you could secure your future. If you are a beginner in the business of cash flow real estate investing, it very important to read good books on real estate. The less expensive the Chicago investment property is, the lower your ongoing expenses will be.

When looking for real estate investment opportunitiesin Chicago or anywhere in the country, the generally accepted standard is to purchase a property that will give you a modest but minimum 1% profit on your investment. An example would be: at $120,000 mortgage or investment cost, $1200 per month rental.

That would be the ideal equation example. Even with rent increases, buying a $500,000 investment property in Chicago is not going to get you $5000 per month on rent. When looking for the best real estate investments in Chicago, you should focus on neighborhoods with relatively high population density and employment growth.

Both of them translate into high demand for housing. If housing supply meets housing demand, real estate investors should not miss the opportunity since entry prices of homes remain affordable.

Some of the popular neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois are Near North Side, Lakeview, West Town, Andersonville, South Loop, Bronzeville, Norridge, Logan Square, Old Town, Wicker Park, Bridgeport, Irving Park, Norwood Park, Bucktown, West Loop and Hyde Park.

Chicago’s North Side is the city’s most densely populated residential section. In the $200,000 price, you can purchase properties with one or two bedrooms and one or two baths. Chicago’s West Side is home to the University of Illinois at Chicago. With a $200,000 budget, you can buy condos that typically offer one to two bedrooms and one or two baths

You must also collaborate and learn from savvy real estate investors who have retired early on in their lives by investing in some of the best real estate markets like Chicago.

Chicago Housing Market 2020: Is It Really Good For Investment?

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports which break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends View

• Time on market: Slower to react, time on market now clearly shows the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers nationwide and in half of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. Last week, median days on market were one day greater than the year ago level, and we expected time on market to rise. This week’s data showed that time on market was 6 days or 10 percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is the first clear sign of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers.  It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 54 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago. Importantly, analysis of metro data from last week shows a strong link between the prevalence of COVID-19 in a market and increasing time on market.  In the 10 worst-hit metros, time on market was up 15 percent, compared to just a 2 percent increase among the 10 least-affected metro areas, analysis detailed here. 
• New listings: Past the peak? Declines in newly listed for-sale homes persist nationwide and in nearly all (97 of 99) large metros, but the size of declines shrank compared to last week. Persistent declines still show that many sellers are reevaluating or postponing sales rather than wading into the current uncertain housing market.
  
  In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 4, and April 11, and April 18, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 31 percent, 47 percent and 42 percent year-over-year, respectively. While this improvement is small and only visible in one week of data, far below the threshold we’d need to declare that we’re past the worst in housing, we see a similar trend in nearly three-quarters of the top 100 metros (73 of 99) including several hard-hit areas like Seattle, Boston, and New Orleans. The largest drops in new listings persist in Detroit, New York, and Philadelphia.
  
  Additionally, analysis of metro data from last week shows a strong link between the prevalence of COVID-19 in a market and fewer new listings. In other words, areas particularly hard-hit by COVID-19 were showing the strongest seller reactions, as detailed here. 
• Asking prices: Sellers hold asking prices steady and the mix of homes for-sale shifts toward more lower-priced homes.
  
  In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 4, and April 11, and April 18, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of just 1.6, 0.8 and 0.3% year-over-year, respectively, the latter marking the slowest pace of growth since 2013. Viewed another way, asking prices typically increase in the spring. Last year, the median list price rose more than 4 percent from early March to early April whereas this year the median list price has remained flat in that same window.
  
  Sellers that are choosing to sell now seem to recognize the market challenges and may be pricing homes less aggressively upon listing than they were pre-COVID which is why we are seeing steady asking prices. Majorities of buyers and sellers do not anticipate large-scale price declines. A survey from the National Association of Realtors conducted April 19-20 shows that 53 percent of buyer agent clients expect home prices to increase or decline only mildly (by less than 5 percent). Similarly, 89 percent of agents with seller clients had either not reduced their asking price or had done so by less than 5 percent. These results support trends we’re seeing in the listing data. So far we’re seeing a smaller share of asking price reductions compared to this time last year in the U.S. and three-quarters (74 of 99) of top metro areas.
  
  Additionally, high-cost areas such as the northeast have seen some strong seller reactions–de-listings and fewer new listings–which has shifted the distribution of homes for sale nationwide toward a lower price point. 
• Total Active Listings: Countervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions. Data shows stable declines in total active listings and expect this trend to continue.
  
  Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings and decrease in the previous momentum of buyer appetite outpacing housing supply; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, we think total active listings will continue to decline, but at a very gradually slowing pace. Weekly data show total active listings declined 15% compared to a year ago, with the pace of declines remaining nearly constant since mid March.

Buyers and sellers holding back in response to COVID

In addition to it’s weekly listings data, realtor.com conducted a quick survey of its users from April 15-17 and here are a few key findings.

• 38% of buyers are looking to postpone their home purchase citing the economy and worries about the ability to tour homes.
• Buyers claim to be spending more time on real estate sites/apps. Floor plans and detailed property information top their list of asks from these providers
• 77% of the sellers surveyed are also looking to buy a home. More than half of those had neither listed their home yet nor found a home to buy

*Some data points for Los Angeles and Las Vegas have been excluded due to data unavailability.

Weekly Housing Trends View–Data Week April 18, 2020