IRVINE, Calif., July 10, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier property database and first property data provider of Data-as-a-Service (DaaS), today released its second-quarter 2020 Special Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United Statesthat are more or less vulnerable to the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic. The report shows that areas most at risk in the second quarter sat on the East Coast and in northern Illinois – with clusters in the New York City, Chicago, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., areas – while the West had the fewest.

The report reveals that a stretch of states running from Connecticutthrough Florida, plus Illinois, had 43 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to the economic impact of the pandemic. They included 11 suburban counties around New York City, seven in the Chicago, IL area, five around Washington, D.C. and four around Baltimore, MD. The only four western counties were in California, with none in other West Coast or southwestern states.

The East Coast pattern continued a trend identified in the first-quarter 2020 report, with variations from state to state. The previous report found that New Jersey and Florida had 24 of the top 50 most at-risk counties, Maryland had two, Illinois five and California only one.

Markets are considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes currently facing possible foreclosure, the portion of homes with mortgage balances that exceed the estimated property value, and the percentage of local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses.

The conclusions are drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, home equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Rankings are based on a combination of those three categories in 406 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the three ranks. See below for the full methodology.

The findings surface amid signs that home-price growth stalled across significant parts of the country in May 2020, with more expensive areas of the West among those getting hit hardest.

“Home-sales data from around the country is starting to show that eight years of price gains may be coming to an end amid the economic damage flowing from the virus pandemic. It’s still too early to make any definitive calls, but the latest numbers show storm clouds gathering over the market,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM Data Solutions. “With this second special report on the potential impact of the pandemic, we see pockets around the country that appear more or less poised to withstand downward pressure on prices and other market conditions. Over the next few months, enough data should come in to tell us how things will most likely pan out.”

Most vulnerable counties clustered around New York City, Chicago, Baltimore and Washington, D.C.
A majority of the 50 U.S. counties most at-risk in the second quarter of 2020 from housing-market troubles connected to the pandemic (from among the 406 counties included in the report) were in the metropolitan statistical areas around New York, NY, Chicago, IL, Baltimore, MD, and Washington, D.C.

They included 11 in the New York City suburbs: Bergen, Essex, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Sussex and Union counties in New Jersey, plus Nassau, Orange, Rockland, Suffolk and Westchester counties in New York. Another seven – Cook, De Kalb, Du Page, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties – were in and around Chicago. 

Five counties in and around the Washington, D.C. metro ranked in the top 50 most at-risk, including Charles, Prince George’s and Frederick in Maryland, and Spotsylvania and Stafford in Virginia. Four were in the northeastern part of Maryland: Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil and Harfordcounties. 

Among others in the top 50 were five of Connecticut’s eight counties, including Litchfield, Middlesex, New Haven, Tolland and Windham counties. 

The only western counties among the top 50 most at risk from problems connected to the Coronavirus outbreak were Humboldt County, CA, in the Eureka metropolitan statistical area, Madera County, CA (outside Merced), Riverside County, CA (outside Los Angeles) and Shasta County (Redding), CA.

Higher levels of unaffordable housing, underwater mortgages and foreclosure activity found in most-at-risk counties

Major home ownership costs (mortgage, property taxes and insurance) consumed more than 30 percent of average local wages in 43 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to market problems connected to the virus pandemic in the second quarter of 2020. They included Westchester County, NY (outside New York City) (77.1 percent of average local wage required for major ownership costs), Rockland County, NY (outside New York City) (71.1 percent of wages); Nassau County, NY (outside New York City) (63.4 percent); Riverside, CA (outside Los Angeles) (62.5 percent) and Bergen County, NJ (outside New York City) (58.5 percent).

In 36 of the 50 most at risk counties, at least 15 percent of mortgages were underwater in the first quarter of 2020 (with owners owing more than their properties are worth). Those with the highest underwater rates within those top 50 counties included Sussex County, NJ (outside New York City) (39.2 percent); Monroe County, PA (outside Wilkes-Barre) (36.3 percent); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (35.7 percent); Livingston County, LA (outside Baton Rouge) (34.3 percent) and Saint Clair County, IL (outside St. Louis, MO) (34.2 percent). 

More than one in 750 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the first quarter of 2020 in 47 of the 50 most at-risk counties. Those with the highest rates included Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (one in every 180 properties facing possible foreclosure); Sussex County, NJ (outside New York City) (one in every 210); Camden County, NJ (outside Philadelphia, PA) (one in every 231); Atlantic County (Atlantic City), NJ (one in every 293) and Will County, IL (outside Chicago) (one in every 294).

Counties least at-risk concentrated in Colorado, Oregon, Texas and Wisconsin

Twenty-six of the 50 least-vulnerable counties from among the 406 included in the report in the second quarter of 2020 were in Colorado, Oregon, Texas and Wisconsin. The largest included Harris County (Houston), TX; Dallas, Tarrant and Collin counties, all in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, and Travis County (Austin), TX.

Lower levels of unaffordable housing, underwater mortgages and foreclosure activity found in less-vulnerable counties

Major home ownership costs (mortgage, property taxes and insurance) consumed less than 30 percent of average local wages in 19 of the 50 counties least at-risk from market problems connected to the virus pandemic in the second quarter of 2020. They included Winnebago County(Oshkosh), WI (18.6 percent of average local wage required for major ownership costs), Benton County (Rogers), AR (21.1 percent of wages); Racine County, WI (outside Milwaukee) (21.4 percent); Sheboygan County, WI (21.6 percent), and Monroe County, MI (outside Detroit) (22.7 percent).

Less than 15 percent of mortgages were underwater in the first quarter of 2020 in all but one of the 50 least at-risk counties. Those with the lowest underwater rates included San Mateo County, CA (outside San Francisco) (2 percent); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (3.6 percent); King County(Seattle), WA (4.5 percent); Dallas County, TX (4.7 percent) and Washington County, OR (outside Portland) (4.9 percent). 

Less than one in 750 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the first quarter of 2020 in all 50 of the least at-risk counties. Those with the lowest foreclosure rates included San Mateo County, CA (outside San Francisco) (one in 12,566 properties facing possible foreclosure); Washington County, WI (outside Milwaukee) (one in 6,259); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (one in 5,755); Eau Claire County, WI (one in 5,471) and Yolo County (Sacramento), CA (one in 4,306).

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/east-coast-and-illinois-have-highest-concentratons-of-housing-markets-vulnerable-to-coronavirus-impact-301091317.html

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Total inventory was down 19%. If new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week.
• Time on market was 11 days slower than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013.
• New listings were down 39%. Declines persist but seem to have roughly stabilized nationwide.

Data Summary

	Week ending May 2	Week ending April 25	Week ending April 18	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-19% YOY	-17% YOY	-15% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	11 days slower YOY	9 days slower YOY	6 days slower YOY	-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	1.6% YOY	1.6% YOY	0.3% YOY	+4% YOY
New Listings	-39% YOY	-43% YOY	-42% YOY	+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View

• Total Active Listings: Countervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions, but so far the momentum limiting homes for sale is winning out. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks.
  Weekly data show total active listings declined 19 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings and decrease in the previous momentum of buyer appetite outpacing housing supply; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, if new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week.
• Time on market: Time on market continues to show the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers. Time on market rose by double-digit percent growth nationwide and in three-quarters of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 2 showed that time on market was 11 days or 19percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is further confirmation of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 75 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago.
• New listings: Flattening the curve? Declines in newly listed for-sale homes persist but seem to have roughly stabilized nationwide with the size of declines remaining roughly the same in the last three weeks. Drops in newly listed homes are widespread, with all (98 of 98) large metros registering a smaller number of new listings than this time last year. Persistent declines still show that many sellers are reevaluating or postponing sales rather than wading into the current uncertain housing market.In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 18, and April 25, and May 2, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 42 percent, 43 percent and 39 percent year-over-year, respectively. Near steady declines in newly listed properties in the last few weeks suggest we’ve yet to see supply turn back to normal. However, some improvement could be on the horizon as more than two thirds (70 of 98) of large metros are seeing smaller declines, including large markets like Dallas, Chicago and Atlanta. 
• Asking prices: Sellers look for minimal home price growth, and the mix of homes for-sale continues to be shifted toward more lower-priced homes. In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 18, and April 25, and May 2, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of just 0.3, 1.6 and 1.6 percent year-over-year, respectively, registering some of the slowest pace of growth since 2013. This slight reacceleration suggests listing prices may regain momentum in the weeks to come as sellers regain confidence and buyers slowly resume activity. Locally, 65 of 99 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.
  So far we’re seeing a smaller share of asking price reductions compared to this time last year in the U.S. and most (92 of 100) of top metro areas, suggesting that while sellers aren’t pushing asking prices, they aren’t quick to reduce them. Additionally, high-cost areas such as the northeast have seen some strong seller reactions–de-listings and fewer new listings–which has shifted the distribution of homes for sale nationwide toward a lower price point. 

Post-COVID Trends in Mortgage-Financed Primary Home Purchases

• As dissected by my colleague, Sabrina Speianu, in the first month post-COVID-19, mortgage data** shows little change in trends by age group despite the major shifts in the housing market. Primary home purchases by Gen Z and Millennials are on the rise while Gen X, Boomers, and the Silent Generation are purchasing a smaller share of homes with mortgages. Similar trends are observed when looking at the generational shares of mortgage dollar volume.
• Home purchase prices are rising the most for younger generations with Millennials seeing a 9 percent increase and Gen Z seeing purchase prices rise 13 percent. For the first-time, the median purchase price for Millennials ($280,800) is approximately equal to that of Baby Boomers ($282,000).
• Perhaps as a result of low mortgage rates which may have caused younger buyers to pursue homes with higher purchase prices, average down payments have slid for Millennial and Gen-Z buyers in 2020, down to 7.8 percent for Millennials. Along with higher purchase prices and lower down payments, loan amounts are rising fastest for younger borrowers, with Gen Z seeing an 11 percent increase in median loan amount and Millennials seeing a nearly 15 percent increase.  
• Shares of home purchasing by generation show warmer areas gaining purchase share, especially among Boomers and Gen-Xers, and Charlotte, Denver, and Phoenix metro areas saw gains across generations.
• Dense metros in the Northeast and Midwest, especially New York and Detroit that have been hard-hit by COVID, saw decreasing shares of home buyers across generations.

Metro Areas Seeing Gains in Home Purchase Shares, by Generation
Baby Boomers	Gen X	Millennials
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY

Metro Areas Seeing Declines in Home Purchase Shares, by Generation
Baby Boomers	Gen X	Millennials
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA	New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA	New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	St. Louis, MO-IL	Los-Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
Kansas City, MO-KS	Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
St. Louis, MO-IL	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA	Kansas City, MO-KS

*Some data points for Los Angeles and Virginia Beach have been excluded due to data unavailability.

** Note: This report does not have a view of changes in generational trends among the cash-buying segment of home purchasers since its primary data source is loan origination data.

You can download weekly housing market data from our data page.

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 2, 2020

March 2020 Hottest Housing Markets

APRIL 9, 2020

Colorado Springs maintains hottest housing market status as national market shifts in response to COVID-19 pressure.

• Colorado Springs reclaims the number 1 rank of hottest housing market for the second consecutive month.
• California metros continue to dominate with ten markets appearing in the top 20 this month.
• The Columbus, OH metro area has seen the largest increase in its hotness ranking among larger metros over the past year.

With the spring home buying season ready to jump into full swing, the entire housing market seemed to pivot in response to COVID-19 in March. While in-person behaviors may have affected buyers’ willingness to visit homes in person, the hottest housing markets were still garnering listing views and closing sales throughout March. Going forward, however, it’s worthwhile to keep an eye on which markets are retaining the attention of homeowner hopefuls as the uncertainty subsidies and the housing market regains its pace.

In March, Colorado Springs, CO retained the title of hottest housing market in the country for the second consecutive month. Originally garnering attention as a spillover market from Denver, this metro has frequently appeared on our list of hottest housing markets, and this represents the third time on record that it has reached number one. Half of all homes in Colorado Springs were selling in under 28 days — nine days faster than last year, and 32 days faster than the rest of the country. Properties in the metro garnered 2.4 times as many views than the average property around the United States. Colorado Springs was the only metro from Colorado on the list of hottest markets.

As a group, Realtor.com’s 20 Hottest Housing Markets received 1.8 to 3.0 times the number of views per home for sale compared to the national rate. These markets are seeing homes for sale move 28 to 47 days more quickly than the typical property in the United States overall. 

Ten states were represented in the top 20 list, including California, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Kansas, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Washington, and Wisconsin. California dominated the hotness list, with seven markets represented, followed by New Hampshire, with three markets represented.

March’s Top 20 Hottest Housing Markets

Metro	Rank (March 2020)	Rank (March 2019)	Views Per Property YoY	Days on Market	Days on Market YoY	Median Listing Price	Median Listing Price YoY
Colorado Springs, CO	1	3	18%	28	-13	465,273	13%
Modesto, CA	2	8	26%	33	-9	392,450	10%
Manchester-Nashua, NH	3	7	0%	38	-13	387,450	6%
Rochester, NY	4	6	3%	37	-10	235,645	9%
Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN	5	11	1%	37	-14	286,450	27%
Fort Wayne, IN	6	38	-13%	39	-25	246,500	14%
Columbus, OH	7	61	-3%	40	-28	307,244	9%
Topeka, KS	8	40	29%	38	-19	152,450	15%
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA	9	10	16%	33	-3	480,050	2%
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA	10	5	-2%	35	-9	507,159	7%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH	11	4	-11%	32	-11	630,050	10%
Fresno, CA	12	20	25%	40	-4	334,025	9%
Yuba City, CA	13	18	-12%	42	-14	369,950	13%
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA	14	21	-3%	40	-16	377,050	10%
Stockton-Lodi, CA	15	9	10%	38	-3	437,800	8%
Dayton, OH	16	22	14%	43	-10	184,995	23%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI	17	25	15%	44	-9	327,500	2%
Concord, NH	18	75	22%	47	-22	330,000	2%
Bakersfield, CA	19	27	15%	42	-6	275,000	9%
Worcester, MA-CT	20	55	-3%	42	-22	358,550	8%

Columbus leads most improved large markets

Larger urban markets continue to cool down in the rankings, with the largest 40 markets across the country dropping by 9 spots, on average, since last year. Western markets collectively improved 3 spots on average over the past year, compared to a decline of 8 spots for midwestern markets, a decline of 23 spots for southern markets, and a decline of 5 spots for northeastern markets Western markets collectively improved 3 spots on average over the past year, an improvement compared to last month’s drop of 1 spot on average. Midwestern markets saw an average decline of 8 spots, although an improvement compared to the drop of 12 spots last month.

March 2020 Hottest Housing Markets