To maximize returns on investment properties, real estate investors should focus on thoughtful, high-impact rehab improvements that enhance both functionality and appeal, moving beyond simple cosmetic fixes, and cater to evolving buyer trends. 

Small Kitchen Changes Could Make Buyers Fall in Love at First Bite

You’re absolutely right, a few strategic kitchen upgrades can significantly enhance a space without requiring a full renovation!Updating lighting, hardware, or even a backsplash can make a big difference in creating a modern and welcoming kitchen. 

Here’s a breakdown of why and how:

Why these upgrades matter:

• Modernization:Outdated elements like old-fashioned lighting or hardware can make a kitchen feel dated and less appealing. 
• Enhanced Functionality:New lighting can improve task lighting and overall ambiance, while updated hardware can make cabinets and drawers easier to use. 
• Increased Value:These upgrades can add value to your home, both aesthetically and practically. 
• Affordability:These upgrades are often less expensive than a full kitchen remodel. 

Specific upgrades to consider:

• Lighting:
  • Replace outdated fixtures:Consider modern or industrial-style pendant lights, recessed lighting, or under-cabinet lighting. 
  • Install dimmer switches: This allows you to adjust the lighting to create different moods. 
• Hardware:
  • Replace cabinet knobs and pulls:Choose hardware that complements your style and cabinet design. 
  • Upgrade drawer pulls: Consider sleek, modern options for a more contemporary look. 
• Backsplash:
  • Install a new backsplash: A backsplash can add a pop of color or texture to your kitchen. 
  • Consider peel-and-stick tiles:These are easy to install and can be a budget-friendly option. 
• Other ideas
  • Countertop resurfacing: This can give your countertops a fresh look without the expense of full replacement. 
  • Paint or wallpaper: Changing the paint color or adding wallpaper can refresh the backdrop. 
  • Add open shelving: This can create a more airy and modern look. 
  • Update flooring: Consider wood plank tile or luxury vinyl plank (LVP) for a modern look

How Bathroom Remodels Impact Home Value

Simple bathroom upgrades like a filtered rainfall showerhead, a sleek floating vanity, and updated lighting can transform small or outdated spaces into luxurious retreats without a full remodel. 

Here’s a breakdown of how these upgrades can make a difference:

1. Showerhead Upgrade:

• Filtered Rainfall Showerhead:A rainfall showerhead provides a spa-like experience, and incorporating a filter can improve water quality and skin health.
• Benefits:
  • Relaxation: The gentle, wide spray of a rainfall showerhead can be incredibly relaxing.
  • Water Quality: A filter can remove impurities and chlorine, leading to softer water and healthier skin and hair.
  • Aesthetic Appeal: Modern rainfall showerheads often have sleek, contemporary designs that enhance the bathroom’s look. 

2. Vanity Upgrade:

• Sleek Floating Vanity: A floating vanity creates a sense of spaciousness and modern elegance.
• Benefits:
  • Aesthetic Appeal: Floating vanities have a clean, minimalist look that can elevate the bathroom’s style.
  • Space Optimization: By mounting the vanity to the wall, you gain floor space, making the bathroom feel larger.
  • Easy Cleaning: Floating vanities are easy to clean, as there’s no base to collect dust and debris. 

3. Lighting Upgrade:

• Contemporary or Energy-Efficient Fixtures:Updating lighting fixtures with modern designs and energy-efficient LED bulbs can brighten the space and save money.
• Benefits:
  • Enhanced Ambiance:Contemporary lighting can create a more sophisticated and relaxing atmosphere.
  • Energy Savings: LED bulbs use significantly less energy than traditional incandescent bulbs, saving money on electricity bills.
  • Longer Lifespan: LED bulbs last much longer than traditional bulbs, reducing the need for frequent replacement.

WHAT ENERGY-EFFICIENT UPGRADES ARE BUYERS LOOKING FOR

To make your home more appealing to buyers in 2025, consider smart and energy-efficient upgrades like energy-efficient appliances, solar panels, programmable thermostats, LED lighting, energy-saving windows, and upgraded HVAC systems. 

Here’s a breakdown of those and other smart and energy-efficient upgrades that can boost your home’s appeal:

Appliance Upgrades:

• Energy-Efficient Appliances:Replacing older appliances with energy-efficient models (refrigerators, washing machines, dishwashers) can save buyers money on utility bills, making your home more attractive.
• Smart Appliances:Consider appliances with smart features like Wi-Fi connectivity and remote control, which can add convenience and appeal to modern buyers. 

Smart Home Features:

• Programmable or Smart Thermostats:These allow buyers to control their home’s temperature remotely and save energy, a popular feature for modern buyers.
• Smart Lighting:Invest in smart lighting systems that can be controlled via voice or app, adding convenience and a touch of luxury.
• Smart Security Systems:A modern security system with smart features like motion sensors, cameras, and remote access can enhance security and appeal to buyers. 

Energy Efficiency Improvements:

• Solar Panels:Solar panels can reduce or eliminate electricity bills, making your home more sustainable and appealing to eco-conscious buyers. 
• Insulation:Ensure your home has proper insulation to reduce energy consumption and maintain a comfortable temperature year-round. 
• Energy-Saving Windows:Upgrade to energy-efficient windows with features like double or triple glazing and low-emissivity coatings to minimize heat loss and gain. 
• Upgraded HVAC Systems:A modern, energy-efficient HVAC system can save buyers money and provide better comfort, making it a valuable selling point. 
• Attic Ventilation:Ensure your attic has proper ventilation to prevent moisture buildup and improve energy efficiency. 
• Air Sealing and Insulation:Air sealing and insulation work together to prevent drafts and improve energy efficiency, which is a significant selling point. 
• Exterior Siding:New siding can enhance curb appeal and improve energy efficiency, making your home more attractive to buyers. 

Turn a Flip Into a Home With Muevo

Upgrading an investment property requires careful planning and smart choices to maximize ROI without depleting your cash reserves, focusing on cost-effective upgrades and smart financing options. 

Here’s how you can upgrade an investment property without depleting your cash reserves:

1. Prioritize High-Impact, Cost-Effective Upgrades:

• Focus on Kitchen and Bath Remodels:These are often the most impactful areas for increasing property value and tenant appeal. 
• Choose Durable and Attractive Flooring:Opt for long-lasting options that are both aesthetically pleasing and easy to maintain. 
• Improve Energy Efficiency:Upgrades like new windows, insulation, and smart thermostats can reduce long-term operating costs and attract environmentally conscious tenants. 
• Consider Smart Home Technology:Simple, cost-effective tech upgrades like smart locks, security systems, and automated lighting can enhance the property’s appeal and safety. 

2. Smart Financing Strategies:

• Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs):HELOCs can provide flexible financing for renovations, allowing you to borrow against your existing property equity.
• Personal Loans:If you have good credit, a personal loan can be another option to fund renovations.
• Hard Money Loans:These are short-term loans from private investors, often used for quick flips or renovations before refinancing.
• Cash-Out Refinance:Refinance your existing mortgage to take out a larger loan and pocket the difference for renovations.
• Consider a HELOC:A HELOC is a revolving credit line that allows you to withdraw funds as needed, similar to a credit card. 

3. Build a Strong Cash Reserve:

• Regularly Allocate Funds:Set aside a portion of your rental income each month to build a reserve fund for unexpected repairs and maintenance. 
• Review and Adjust:Periodically review your reserve fund to ensure it’s adequate to cover potential expenses and adjust as needed. 
• Document Everything:Keep detailed records of all expenses, including repairs, maintenance, and upgrades, to track your spending and budget effectively. 
• Consult Professionals:Seek advice from property managers or financial advisors to determine the optimal reserve fund level for your specific situation. 
• Consider a Rent Guarantee:Some services offer rent guarantees to help reduce the financial risks of renting and protect your income during periods of vacancy. 

For professionals seeking quick and flexible financing solutions, hard money lenders are an invaluable source of opportunity in the real estate industry. While these lenders offer a lifeline for those looking to seize lucrative opportunities, navigating the terrain requires caution. In this article, we’ll shed light on common mistakes professionals make when borrowing from hard money lenders and provide valuable insights to steer clear of these pitfalls.

Mistake 1: Underestimating the True Cost

One prevalent mistake is underestimating the true cost of borrowing. Hard money loans often come with higher interest rates and fees compared to traditional financing options. Professionals must meticulously analyze the total cost of the loan, including interest rates, origination fees, and any other associated charges. By doing so, borrowers can make informed decisions about whether the investment remains profitable in the long run.

Tip: Always request a clear breakdown of all costs associated with the loan and carefully assess how they align with your overall financial strategy.

Mistake 2: Ignoring the Terms and Conditions

Another common pitfall is neglecting the fine print in the loan agreement. Hard money lenders may impose strict terms and conditions, such as short repayment periods and high penalties for default. Professionals must thoroughly review the terms, seeking clarification on any ambiguities. Ignoring these details can lead to financial stress and potential legal complications.

Mistake 3: Overleveraging Without a Cushion

One critical oversight is overleveraging without a financial cushion. Some borrowers make the mistake of borrowing the maximum amount without considering unexpected expenses or market fluctuations. This can lead to financial strain and increase the risk of default.

Tip: Build a financial cushion into your borrowing strategy, considering potential unforeseen expenses, market uncertainties, and other risk factors.

Mistake 4: Failing to Have an Exit Strategy

A crucial oversight is neglecting to establish a clear exit strategy. Hard money loans are typically short-term, and professionals need a well-thought-out plan for repayment. Without a viable exit strategy, borrowers may find themselves scrambling to secure alternative financing or facing unfavorable terms for an extension.

Tip: Develop a comprehensive exit strategy before obtaining the loan, considering potential challenges and outlining specific milestones for repayment.

Conclusion

Borrowing from hard money lenders can be a strategic move for professionals in real estate and investment. However, avoiding common mistakes is essential to ensure a positive and profitable experience. By thoroughly understanding the costs, scrutinizing the terms, being cautious about overleveraging, and having a well-defined exit strategy, professionals can navigate the terrain of hard money lending with confidence and success.

Amid declining property values in a tight lending environment, all-cash buyers will benefit from bargain pricing, CBRE predicts in its latest outlook.

CBRE expects an economic slowdown in the U.S. next year that will impact commercial real estate with bank lending remaining tight throughout 2024, investment volume decreasing 5 percent, cap rates expanding and property values declining.

But the U.S. may be able to avoid a recession and interest rates should be reduced later in the year as activity picks up in the second half of 2024, according to the firm’s 2024 U.S. real estate outlook.

Property types with relatively strong fundamentals, including demand, vacancy and rent growth, like industrial, retail, multifamily and data centers will be most favored by investors in 2024, according to CBRE.

Richard Barkham, CBRE global chief economist & global head of research, said in prepared remarks there is still some more pain ahead for the commercial real estate industry in 2024, including overall investment volumes remaining down for the year. But he expects an upturn by the second half and overall leasing activity to pick up as well. He notes stabilization and the early stages of recovery are also not far off.

North America dry powder by strategy. Chart courtesy of CBRE

With inflation easing, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin reducing short-term interest rates in 2024, possibly to around 4.25 percent by the end of the year and to 3.5 percent in 2025.

There should be buying opportunities in the first half of 2024, especially for all-cash buyers like sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and endowments. CBRE expects the lowest pricing for assets will occur in the first two quarters.

The report notes increasing cap rates, which have risen by about 150 basis points between early 2022 and late 2023 depending on the market and asset type, imply a 20 percent decline in values for most property types. For office, the increase was higher, rising by at least 200 basis points.

“We think cap rates will expand by another 25 to 50 basis points in 2024, with a corresponding 5 percent to 15 percent decrease in values,” the report states.

CBRE expects real estate values for most property types will likely not stabilize before mid-2024.

Historical & forecast cap rates. Chart courtesy of CBRE

Office vacancies to peak

The outlook expects another tough year ahead for the office market with office vacancy peaking at nearly 20 percent in 2024, up from 18.4 in the third quarter of 2023 and 12.1 percent at the end of 2019.

CBRE notes a slowing economy in the first part of 2024 and increasing acceptance of hybrid working arrangements will continue to limit office demand next year. The 2023 U.S. Office Occupier Sentiment Survey found more than half of the respondents planned to further reduce their office space in 2024.

Companies looking to lease less than 20,000 square feet will account for most of the leasing activity, according to CBRE. Leasing activity should rise by 5 percent in 2024, however that is still 20 to 25 percent lower than pre-pandemic levels.

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READ ALSO: How Incentives Boost Office Conversions

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Meanwhile, the flight-to-quality trend should continue with occupiers seeking space in newer, prime office properties with the best amenities. But office construction levels will be at their lowest levels since 2024, which could result in a shortage of that sought-after Class A space later in the year. CBRE forecasts that average prime office asking rent will increase by as much as 3 percent.

On the investment side, the higher-for-longer outlook for interest rates will cause some owners of Class B and C office assets to sell due to further erosion in values. Many of those older buildings that lack modern amenities will continue to struggle to attract tenants, so a higher percentage of older office assets are likely to be converted to other uses. While office conversions can be challenging, the report notes the federal government is providing grants, low-interest loans and tax incentives and local governments are also offering incentives.

Not all office markets are suffering, and the outlook shines a light on several active cities in the U.S. In Nashville, Tenn., where absorption and rents are up, demand for new office space is expected to remain strong. Miami is seeing one of the highest rent increases in the country and the vacancy rate is dropping as new-to-the market tenants are keeping the market healthy. Las Vegas has seen an uptick in leasing activity and strong preleasing at speculative projects, putting the market in a strong position heading into 2024.

Industrial sector slowdown

The industrial sector should see net absorption similar to 2023 levels and rent growth moderating to 8 percent. Construction deliveries are tapering off and expected to continue to slow down due to economic uncertainty, tight lending conditions and oversupply in some markets.

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READ ALSO: Property Management Success: How AI Boosts Industrial

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Vacancy is expected to hit 5 percent by mid-2024, up from 4.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023 but decrease later in the year due to the decline in new construction. Looking ahead, CBRE is forecasting a 7.5 percent increase in U.S. industrial production over the next five years as more occupiers improve their supply chains by adding more import locations and onshoring or nearshoring of manufacturing operations. Markets to watch include Austin and San Antonio in Texas; Nashville; Salt Lake City and Central Florida.

Retail’s declining availability

The retail sector is also facing a lack of new construction. That will contribute to retail availability rates dropping by 20 basis points next year to 4.6 percent. Asking rent growth is expected to drop below 2 percent for most of 2024 but go above 2 percent by the fourth quarter.

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READ ALSO: Mixed Shopping Cart for Retail

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Open-air suburban retail centers will see demand grow faster than other retail formats and neighborhood, community and strip centers will have stable occupancy throughout the year. Look for traditional mall-based retailers to seek other new formats outside the malls for expansion. Texas markets are expected to see more luxury brands. Other markets to watch include Orlando, Fla.; Charlotte, N.C.; Denver; San Francisco and Orange County, Calif.

AI to fuel increased data center demand

The data center market is seeing growth, often driven by advances in cloud-based solutions, artificial intelligence and other new applications and technologies. CBRE notes demand will continue to be higher than supply and construction in major markets will exceed 3,000 MW in 2024, up from the company’s 2023 estimate of 2.500 MW. Markets to watch include Austin; San Antonio and Omaha, Neb.

https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/what-to-expect-for-cre-in-2024/

When it comes to living a healthier lifestyle, the little things can add up and make a considerable impact! It’s not just about hitting the gym or eating right – it’s also about creating a healthier home environment and adopting habits that promote overall well-being. To help you on your journey, here are some tips that will contribute to a more holistically fit lifestyle.

Purify Your Air

Minimizing indoor air pollution can affect how you feel, from reducing asthma triggers to creating a better sleeping environment. Because of this, ensuring good air quality in your home is something you should prioritize. One easy solution is to invest in an air purifier, which can help eliminate many common indoor pollutants. And if you live in a region that gets smoke-filled air from frequent forest fires, an air purifier is a must in the summer and fall months. Additionally, regularly changing your furnace filters can substantially improve your indoor air quality.

Adopt Some Green Friends

Plants don’t just make your home prettier – they also offer some serious health benefits! Certain types, like the snake plant, aloe vera and peace lily, are well-known to clean the indoor air, increase humidity and release oxygen. Plus, introducing plants is a great way to add a relaxing dose of nature to your living space, along with enhancing the air quality.

Make a Shoes-Off Policy

Keeping your shoes at the door is a simple practice that can keep your home cleaner and healthier. Shoes can track in germs, dirt and other outdoor pollutants, not to mention allergens like pollen. Adopting a shoes-off policy can significantly reduce this influx of unwanted substances into your home, improving the overall living environment and potentially contributing to a decreased risk of allergies and illnesses.

Regularly Deep Clean Carpets

Carpet maintenance is not just about keeping up the aesthetic appeal – it’s fundamentally a health measure. Carpets can act like a filter, trapping various airborne particles, including pet dander, dust mites, pollen and other allergens. Although vacuuming helps, it often isn’t enough to remove all these contaminants deeply embedded in the carpet’s fibers. A regular deep clean is necessary to extract these allergens and pollutants fully. Experts recommend a professional cleaning every 12 to 18 months, depending on your carpet’s usage level.

Filter Your Water

Filters can remove contaminants from your water, providing safer and often better-tasting H2O. Clean, fresh water is vital in maintaining good health, so it’s well worth the investment. A reusable pitcher is also a greener and more economical choice than buying plastic bottled water. Plus, there are fantastic pitcher options, from the downright luxurious to the no-frills model.

Room to Exercise, Destress & Create

Repurposing space in your home and creating dedicated areas for physical activity, relaxation and hobbies can significantly influence your health journey. Make a quiet corner ready for workouts, even if it’s just enough space for a yoga mat – it can motivate you to stick to a regular exercise routine. Exercise not only boosts your physical health but also acts as a natural stress reliever. In addition, having a place to unwind and disconnect can considerably improve your mental health. This could be a reading nook, a meditation corner or somewhere to engage in your favorite hobbies and crafts.

Establish a Tech-Free Zone

Consider a kitchen or dining room charging station to keep phones out of bedrooms at night. A tech-free bedroom can help improve sleep quality and promote a better sleep routine and a healthier home. Tempting as it may be, instead of using your phone’s alarm to wake up in the morning, pick out one of these top-rated and stylish alarm clocks.

Remember, living a fit, healthy lifestyle is more than the big gestures – it’s also about the little steps you can take daily. Pick a few from our list and start 2024 off on the right foot!

When it comes to living a healthier lifestyle, the little things can add up and make a considerable impact! It’s not just about hitting the gym or eating right – it’s also about creating a healthier home environment and adopting habits that promote overall well-being. To help you on your journey, here are some tips that will contribute to a more holistically fit lifestyle.

Purify Your Air

Minimizing indoor air pollution can affect how you feel, from reducing asthma triggers to creating a better sleeping environment. Because of this, ensuring good air quality in your home is something you should prioritize. One easy solution is to invest in an air purifier, which can help eliminate many common indoor pollutants. And if you live in a region that gets smoke-filled air from frequent forest fires, an air purifier is a must in the summer and fall months. Additionally, regularly changing your furnace filters can substantially improve your indoor air quality.

Adopt Some Green Friends

Plants don’t just make your home prettier – they also offer some serious health benefits! Certain types, like the snake plant, aloe vera and peace lily, are well-known to clean the indoor air, increase humidity and release oxygen. Plus, introducing plants is a great way to add a relaxing dose of nature to your living space, along with enhancing the air quality.

Make a Shoes-Off Policy

Keeping your shoes at the door is a simple practice that can keep your home cleaner and healthier. Shoes can track in germs, dirt and other outdoor pollutants, not to mention allergens like pollen. Adopting a shoes-off policy can significantly reduce this influx of unwanted substances into your home, improving the overall living environment and potentially contributing to a decreased risk of allergies and illnesses.

Regularly Deep Clean Carpets

Carpet maintenance is not just about keeping up the aesthetic appeal – it’s fundamentally a health measure. Carpets can act like a filter, trapping various airborne particles, including pet dander, dust mites, pollen and other allergens. Although vacuuming helps, it often isn’t enough to remove all these contaminants deeply embedded in the carpet’s fibers. A regular deep clean is necessary to extract these allergens and pollutants fully. Experts recommend a professional cleaning every 12 to 18 months, depending on your carpet’s usage level.

Filter Your Water

Filters can remove contaminants from your water, providing safer and often better-tasting H2O. Clean, fresh water is vital in maintaining good health, so it’s well worth the investment. A reusable pitcher is also a greener and more economical choice than buying plastic bottled water. Plus, there are fantastic pitcher options, from the downright luxurious to the no-frills model.

Room to Exercise, Destress & Create

Repurposing space in your home and creating dedicated areas for physical activity, relaxation and hobbies can significantly influence your health journey. Make a quiet corner ready for workouts, even if it’s just enough space for a yoga mat – it can motivate you to stick to a regular exercise routine. Exercise not only boosts your physical health but also acts as a natural stress reliever. In addition, having a place to unwind and disconnect can considerably improve your mental health. This could be a reading nook, a meditation corner or somewhere to engage in your favorite hobbies and crafts.

Establish a Tech-Free Zone

Consider a kitchen or dining room charging station to keep phones out of bedrooms at night. A tech-free bedroom can help improve sleep quality and promote a better sleep routine and a healthier home. Tempting as it may be, instead of using your phone’s alarm to wake up in the morning, pick out one of these top-rated and stylish alarm clocks.

Remember, living a fit, healthy lifestyle is more than the big gestures – it’s also about the little steps you can take daily. Pick a few from our list and start 2024 off on the right foot!

Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with inflation?  The answer to this question is key to predicting what happens in 2024.

On the real estate front, the beginning of the year started out good but as interest rates rose substantially volumes dropped off a cliff and prices began falling.  What do the changes mean for residential and commercial real estate in 2024?  Will prices have a larger reset than we are already seeing?

2024 will finally be a big reset in real estate

Regardless of prices, real estate is already in a deep recession, with closing volumes down close to 20 year lows.  At the same time interest rates are remaining above 7.5% (as of this writing).  Late 2023, we started to see the beginning of what is to come in 2024 with values finally starting to come off their epic run in most cities throughout the country.

Three factors that will shape real estate in 2024

Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2024 and beyond: Interest rates, inflation, and consumer sentiment. All three are intertwined as they influence each other, but it is important to discuss each one individually to understand how each unique variable will influence real estate in 2022 and beyond.

Inflation:

Inflation continues to run at almost 2 times the Federal reserve target of 2%.  There should be some break in the continued price acceleration as supply chains “catch up” with demand.  Furthermore, we are seeing in the latest retail numbers that prices are starting to dampen demand a little, which will help.  Unfortunately, there are a few categories that will remain elevated for a while: housing and wages that will factor into the price of goods.

Housing:  As rates have almost tripled from their lows, housing has gotten considerably more expensive due to financing costs.  Furthermore supply continues to be reduced due to the lock in effect.  Remember housing makes up over 30% of the CPI calculation.

Wages also look to continue higher as the work force remains constrained either from retirements or others not reentering the work force for several reasons.  For example, as inflation and wages increase, so does childcare costs which makes it more difficult for many to justify working if they are spending close to what they are making on childcare.  I do not see this issue getting resolved until possibly late 23 which will lead to continued upward pressure on wages, but likely not as much as in 2022 as demand wanes a little.

Interest rates:

The Federal reserve finally came around that inflation is not transitory and as a result they accelerated the wind down of their bond purchases which will put them in a position to pause hiking rates into 2023.   The market has picked up the inflation fight for the fed with long term yields finally heading higher even without additional federal reserve hiking.

Some are predicting a quick reversal in the fed next year.  I do not see this happening as they are forced to hold rates higher for longer due to the stickiness of inflation and huge deficit spending that further increases pressure on yields. The early indicators of rising cardboard prices is a warning that the road ahead will be bumpy on inflation.   These factors will keep mortgage rates in the 6-7% range in 2024.

Consumer Sentiment

Even with huge inflation and predictions of a downturn, the consumer keeps spending.  I think late 23 the consumer starts to get “tired out” and will eventually slow spending down as they work through built up pandemic savings.  This should help slow inflation, but will not lead to a quick reversal.

The recent bank collapses are a wildcard.  So far, the contagion seems to be isolated, but if this spreads consumer confidence will take a large hit.

Multiple macro wildcards to watch in 2024

2024 is a hard year to predict as rates remain high there is increasing probability of something breaking in the economy.  Here are some factors I am watching:

1. Deficit spending/financing: The federal deficit has basically doubled over the last 3 years and all of this must be financed through the treasury market.  As the treasury continues its borrowing rates could continue to spike.  I see no end in site to the current deficit spending which will lead to rates higher for longer
2. Interest rates/inflation: I’m not convinced that we are totally done with inflation, the labor market is still exceptionally strong which will continue upward pressure on wages and in turn products/services.  Rates will have to remain high even in the face of a possible moderate recession
3. What breaks? The federal reserve continues touting a soft landing, in order to accomplish this rates will need to remain higher for longer.  This drastically raises the risk of something breaking.  My first thoughts are commercial real estate and regional banks.  But I don’t think the economy will come out of the high rate environment unscathed.

How the three factors above play out could have substantial implications on real estate, for example if something in the economy breaks bad enough like commercial real estate, we could enter a recession with higher unemployment than anticipated.  My gut says that rates will stay higher for longer due to the tight labor market and increased deficit spending which ultimately will put pressure on commercial and residential real estate prices.

What are my predictions for real estate in 2024?

2024 still looks to be a transition year, but likely will not happen exactly as economists have planned.  Unfortunately, there are more negative than positive risks for real estate heading into the second half of 2024.

In the first half of the year, I do not see the bottom dropping out of prices.  There will be some softening with prices dropping in the 5-10% range, some markets will hold steady while others could still increase further. The real test comes in the second half of the year when consumers exhaust their pandemic savings and the bills come due for all the spending.  

Furthermore interest rates will remain much higher than the market is currently anticipating, which will ultimately lead to a reset in the economy.  

On the commercial side, rising real interest rates will continue to put pressure on cap rates.  Remember that the higher the cap rate the lower the value (they work in inverse to each other.  Office is going to get destroyed with values dropping around 30% overall due to lower demand, higher financing rates, and much higher cap rates.  Retail and Industrial will also come off their highs as cap rates continue to rise to keep up with the rise in treasuries.  Rents will not be able to rise fast enough to compensate for the higher cap rates.

The wild card is what happens late 2024 as higher interest rates continue to dampen demand; furthermore, the federal reserve must hold rates higher for longer which will keep rates from falling back to their lows.  Worst case scenario 10-15% price drops, likely is somewhere under 15% reset in prices.  This will not occur until mid 2024 as the consumer finally comes to terms with increased borrowing costs and slows down their spending. 

Commercial is a different ballgame as  commercial properties are at much higher risk for larger price drops.  For example, large class B office will need a huge reset in prices which could be in the 40%+ range.

Will there be a recession in 2024?

I’m going to put my odds at 75% for a recession in 2024.  As rates remain higher commercial real estate values will plunge which will lead to more bank failures and less lending.  Eventually the lack of liquidity will flow through to consumer spending leading to a slowdown.  Unfortunately, the risks of recession are mounting as there is always a lag in the economy.  Furthermore, I think the market is calling the all clear on inflation a bit too soon and will be in for a rude surprise of higher rates.

Summary:

2024 is going to be a bumpy year in real estate.  We are already seeing signs of this on the residential side with the median prices off 5% in Denver year over year and volumes down 25%. This is just the beginning of the reset in real estate.

Commercial real estate is a whole different animal with rents dropping, vacancy rising, and ultimately prices facing a huge reset especially in the office sector along with multifamily.  If rates remain higher for longer, there will be increasing stress on every commercial property type as cap rates remain elevated.

Anyone in residential or commercial real estate is going to have a tough ride as volumes will stay extremely low throughout the nation until there is a major reset in the economy that forces individuals and businesses to sell and rates to fall substantially.  Long and short 2024 looks like a tough year in real estate that will likely worsen for most compared to 2023.  Fortunately every single cycle creates new opportunities and we can always look forward to 2025

Additional Reading/Resources

• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-02/housing-crisis-gets-worse-for-americans-on-mortgage-lock-in-effect?srnd=premium
• https://car-co.stats.showingtime.com/docs/mmi/x/Statewide?src=map
• https://www.wsj.com/business/the-rising-price-of-cardboard-a-positive-sign-for-the-economy-08908d0f

US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry.  What property types are declining? (hint not just office properties).  What is the only property type that held in positive territory?  Is the recent drop in prices just a blip or the start of a bigger trend?  Why are prices falling now while the economy continues humming along?

What was in the most recent commercial data?

The recent CoStar report, the leading aggregator of commercial data,  showed declines in Office, retail, and apartments.  CoStar has some of the best insight into commercial property values as they also track heavily via Loopnet (largest commercial MLS)

1. THE PRIME INDUSTRIAL INDEX LED GROWTH AMONG THE FOUR MAJOR PROPERTY TYPES. The Prime U.S. Industrial Index was up 2.5% in the first quarter of 2023 and 10.8% in the 12 months ending in March 2023. The equal-weighted U.S. Industrial Index, including a broader mix of asset qualities, underperformed the Prime Index with a modest decline of 0.1% in the quarter. The Prime Industrial Index was the only Prime property type index to hold in positive territory in the first quarter. 
2. MULTIFAMILY INDEX DECLINES. The equal-weighted U.S. Multifamily Index fell by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2023 and dropped 2.2% in the 12 months ending in March 2023. The U.S. Multifamily Index showed the sharpest annual decline in values since the interest rate hiking cycle began in the first quarter of 2022. Debt for multifamily transactions was plentiful and drove investor demand in the sector. The index appreciated by 2.8% in the 12 months ending in March 2023 in Prime Multifamily markets but fell 2.8% in the quarter.
3. OFFICE PRICE DECLINES CONTINUED IN THE FIRST QUARTER. The U.S. Office Index sagged 2.4% in the first quarter of 2023, taking its cumulative decline to minus 5% during the previous three quarters. Office prices were down 1.4% in the 12 months ending in March 2023, marking the first annual decline since the second quarter of 2012. In addition, pricing growth in the Prime Office Index advanced at a negligible pace of 0.4% in the 12 months ending in March 2023 while slumping 2.8% in the quarter.
4. RETAIL PRICING FOOTED SIDEWAYS IN THE FIRST QUARTER. The U.S. Retail Index rose just 0.2% in the first quarter of 2023 and 3.3% in the 12 months ending in March 2023. The tendency of high-profile pair trends to swing the data around at the top end of retail space can lead to strong quarterly fluctuations. The U.S. Prime Retail Index dipped 2.6% in the first quarter while appreciating 12.3% over the year prior. The three-quarter trend in the Prime Retail Index saw values surge 9.9% in the third quarter of 2022 before giving back 2.8% and 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, respectively.

Why is multifamily declining as rents are staying high?

Below I put together a hypothetical analysis of what is occurring in the multifamily sector.  Multifamily was trading at insanely low cap rates while at the same time banking on appreciating rents.  As rents have stagnated or even declined in some markets and interest rates have basically doubled, many apartment deals no longer cash flow and are in trouble.  Furthermore, it is more than likely that a bank holds the note below and that note is now a  big problem for them.  Here is a great article in the Wall Street Journal that shows how this is playing out in real life.

Remember most commercial loans are fixed for 3-5 years and then the rate resets to the market rate (typically 10 year treasury +).  This scenario below is especially difficult:

1. LTV using new cap rate is radically different: No lender today would provide a new loan with the cash flow basically at break even due to the higher rate.
2. Cash flow underwater based on new rate: Assuming the note is current and the lender sold the note, a substantial discount would have to be given to compensate for the ultra-low rate.
3. Even if note is held and renewed a substantial loss would have to be taken by the bank for impairment

Pre Covid
Net Operating Income	$    300,000.00
Value	$ 7,500,000.00	assume a 4 cap
Debt service	$         210,000	5.25m (70% LTV at 4%)
Net Cash Flow	$      90,000.00
Today
Net Operating Income	$    300,000.00
Value	$ 5,454,545.45	assume a 5.5 cap
Debt service	$         315,000	5.25m (70% LTV at 6%)
Net Cash Flow	$    (15,000.00)

Is the recent decline in commercial property values a blip or a trend?

“Lots more price declines are coming,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, said.

The danger is that will compound the difficulties confronting many banks at a time when they are fighting to retain deposits in the face of a steep rise in interest rates over the past year.

Excluding farms and residential properties, banks accounted for more than 60% of the $3.6 trillion in commercial real estate loans outstanding in the fourth quarter of 2022, with smaller institutions particularly exposed, according to the Federal Reserve’s semi-annual Financial Stability Report published last week.

“The magnitude of a correction in property values could be sizable and therefore could lead to credit losses” at banks, the report said.

Summary

The recent declines in commercial properties are not a blip.  They are the beginning of an upcoming cycle with huge resets in prices.  These prices will be most profound in office with big impacts also being felt in larger multifamily.

Based on the current federal reserve predictions, rates will remain elevated at least until around mid-year 2024.  This will exasperate the issue new group of office and multifamily notes come due for a reset leading to cash flow issues in many cases.

The overwhelming majority of commercial loans are held by banks so at the end of the day someone will be taking a haircut that will become self-fulfilling as lenders sit out on new deals due to their own cash flow issues caused by commercial property.  I’m already seeing the credit crunch which will get amplified over the next year with higher rates.

Ever stumbled upon a quaint café in an unexpected place and thought, “How did I not know about this?” The world of real estate has its own hidden cafes—secondary and tertiary markets. But why are they like hidden gems, and how can you, as an investor, benefit from them? Let’s unpack it:

• Primary Markets: These are big players such as Dallas, LA, or Chicago.
• Secondary Markets: Cities like Austin, Nashville, and Portland, which have been gaining traction.
• Tertiary Markets: Think of areas like Bend, Oregon, or Macon, Georgia. They may be talked about less, but they’re brimming with potential.

Considering a fix-and-flip project or rental investment properties in these lesser-sung regions? Let’s weigh some of the pros and cons.

Upsides of investing in secondary and tertiary markets

Cost-efficient entry

These markets are often in regions that haven’t experienced the rapid urbanization and commercialization in primary cities. Without the hype and media attention driving up property prices, entry costs remain relatively low. This allows investors to make strategic, calculated investments without the heavy financial weight that prime markets often demand. A savvy investor can view this as an opportunity to diversify their portfolio, leveraging the affordability of these markets.

Less crowd, more space

Most often in the limelight, primary markets attract domestic and international investors. In contrast, secondary and tertiary markets remain relatively under the radar.

The charm of this understated focus is the freedom it offers. Real estate investors can take their time to understand a property, negotiate without the pressure of multiple counter-offers, and finalize deals in a less aggressive environment. This space for deliberation can lead to more informed and, ultimately, profitable decisions.

Promising returns

The untapped nature of these markets means there’s substantial room for growth. The ROI here isn’t just about immediate profits. It’s also about long-term appreciation.

As these markets mature and attract more attention, early investors can see substantial returns on their initial investments. To succeed in these markets, look for properties that can increase in value over time as the market changes.

Steady growth

Primary markets are influenced by global trends and international investments. On the other hand, secondary and tertiary markets typically experience growth as a result of local factors.

This means growth is often steadier and more predictable, grounded in local economic and infrastructural developments. For an investor, this translates to more sustainable, organic appreciation. Monitoring local news, understanding community plans, and keeping an ear to the ground can provide valuable insights into potential growth trajectories.

Challenges of investing in secondary and tertiary markets

Potentially more demanding research

The relatively low-profile nature of these markets means that traditional real estate research tools might not always offer comprehensive data. This challenge, however, is also an invitation for investors to innovate. Engaging with local realtors, joining community forums, and even connecting with residents can offer invaluable insights. Immersive research helps choose properties and understand local culture, preferences, and long-term investment viability.

More gradual appreciation

These markets are influenced by local factors. So, the speed of growth may not be as fast as the rapid increases seen in top markets.

However, slow and steady growth can be a blessing in disguise. It gives investors the time to adapt, make further investments, or even exit if they foresee a plateau. Recognizing the steady nature of these markets is essential to setting realistic expectations and crafting a strategic investment plan.

Networking nuances

The bustling real estate events and seminars are less frequent here, but that shouldn’t deter the passionate investor. Embrace this as an opportunity to pioneer. Host local meetups, collaborate with community leaders, or even establish digital forums for like-minded investors targeting these markets. By taking the initiative, you not only build a network but potentially position yourself as a thought leader in the space.

Market variability

These markets can be sensitive to local economic shifts. A significant employer downsizing or a local industry experiencing a downturn can have palpable effects.

But with challenge comes opportunity. Staying informed about local happenings can allow proactive investors to pivot strategies, hedge risks, and even identify new avenues for investment. Regular engagement with local businesses and economic forums can be invaluable.

Taking the plunge: Market research and tips for new local market investments

It’s pivotal to acknowledge the importance of thorough market research when considering investments in secondary and tertiary markets. Venturing into these lesser-known territories requires a tailored approach. So, where should you start?

• Local Expertise: Building relationships with local real estate agents or brokers can offer unique insights that standard market reports might miss. They have their fingers on the pulse of the local community, understanding the intricacies and trends that define these markets.
• Community Forums & Social Media: Engage in local online forums or social media groups. These platforms have valuable information about neighborhood developments, upcoming projects, and local events that can affect property values.
• Visit In-Person: Nothing beats an on-ground visit. Walk the neighborhoods, visit local businesses, and strike up conversations with residents. This will show you the community spirit and help you understand how many people want to rent or buy renovated properties.
• Assess Local Amenities: Look for signs of growth. Are new schools being built? Are there parks and recreational areas? What about public transport facilities? These can be indicators of a budding community, which can be especially attractive for rental investments.
• Stay Updated: Once you’ve gathered your initial insights, it’s essential to keep updating your knowledge. Markets evolve, and what’s true today might change in a few months. Set up Google alerts, subscribe to local news outlets, and keep in touch with your local connections.

Venturing into a new market also means adapting your investment strategies to align with local demands. For fix-and-flip projects, understanding the local architectural preferences, popular home features, or even favored color palettes can be the difference between a property that sells instantly and one that lingers on the market.

For rentals, it’s about understanding the demographics. Are potential tenants young professionals, families, or perhaps retirees? Each group has unique needs, from proximity to schools to easy access to nightlife.

Aside from conducting market research, it is crucial to find a reliable lending partner. One that has a proven track record and expertise in the local market.

That’s where Muevo comes in

At Muevo, we’re changing the real estate financing game. Our presence in 50 states plus DC has equipped us with diverse market insights. We’ve seen the aspirations of investors in primary cities and the untapped passion of those in secondary and tertiary ones. This broad spectrum of experience allows us to offer tailored financing solutions, from Fix and Flip/Bridge Loans to DSCR Rental and Rental Portfolio Loans.

We combine the agility of technology with human expertise, ensuring you close deals faster, enjoy competitive rates and have our unwavering support in every step.

Wrapping up

Exploring secondary and tertiary markets means embracing both the challenges and opportunities they present. The key? Knowledge, diligence, and a reliable partner in your corner. As the landscape of real estate investing evolves, staying informed and adaptable can be your greatest asset.

So, whether you’re diving into the deep end or just dipping your toes, remember every market has its unique story. Happy investing, and here’s to uncovering the next great opportunity!

The commercial real estate market, not unlike the single-family housing and residential markets, is subject to cyclical trends. Investors are constantly looking for how these trends might affect their individual markets for the foreseeable future and ask themselves: what are the best real estate markets for commercial investments? These ever-changing trends and their impact are what drives an investor’s strategy on how they will edge out their competition. To better understand the current and upcoming commercial real estate market trends, it’s also important to review the trends that brought us to today.

Understanding Today’s Commercial Real Estate Market

The real estate market has proven to be a reliable and successful wealth-building tool for investors in recent years and is expected to continue its growth in 2022. 

At the beginning and peak of the COVID-19 crisis, experts and professionals alike were concerned about the short and long-term effects on the real estate market. The pandemic undeniably impacted the economy on many levels. However, the real estate market continued to move without slowing down. 

The pandemic did force commercial space occupants to adapt quickly, but COVID-19 statistics are improving and businesses are resuming to operate normally. Many businesses had to take new health policies into account before requiring in-office work. Some businesses continue to adapt and implement work from home or partial work from home policies successfully. Demand for office space have risen again as businesses who prefer to work face to face have been cleared to do so. 

Commercial real estate agents can also expect demand for a restructured design of office spaces. Some commercial landlords may find that changing their buildings to accommodate more space or privacy between employees will prove an attractive quality to prospective tenants. 

Although the changes that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused have been challenging for the commercial real estate industry, the quick return to commercial spaces has proven encouraging. As the economy recovers and workplaces adapt to changing public health practices, the commercial industry is expected to remain strong.

Real Estate Trends & Predictions For 2022

Many experts are eyeing the real estate industry to see what will happen in the year ahead. A brief review of previous years might suggest that while predictions can be useful in planning, they are not entirely accurate. For example, at the start of 2020 many would never have guessed the biggest driving factor in the market would be the COVID-19 pandemic. As we head into 2022, the effects of the pandemic continue to drive several changing trends in real estate including an emphasis on e-commerce, upgraded rental properties, and inventory shortages. 

Real estate investors should keep an eye on the return to retail spaces. While the conversation around e-commerce has continued to suggest an end to brick-and-mortar stores, this is simply not the case. Many individuals, in light of eased COVID-19 restrictions, still want to attend restaurants, shop, and spend time in commercial retail spaces. With the exception of possible vaccine and mask mandates, many commercial areas are open for business as usual and investors should expect that trend to continue. 

Professionals across the industry have been anxiously waiting to see how many companies continue work from home policies in the future, and the answer is still unclear. What we do know is that many top companies still want employees back in the office — promising news for commercial spaces. Note that the decision to work from home vs. return to the office is very divided by industry (for example, Tech seems to be leading the work from home push). Investors interested in office spaces should consider possible tenants and which spaces would be best for these businesses. 

A few other trends to consider in the year ahead include the recovery of multifamily rental units and a shortage of housing inventory. Investors may find they are able to keep vacancies low in the year ahead with single-family and multifamily rental units. On a final note, investors should keep an eye out for state and federal plans to improve infrastructure across the country. These changes could greatly increase the accessibility of commercial spaces and increase demand from tenants. 

2022 is expected to be an interesting year for real estate market trends. Investors should keep an eye on both residential and commercial trends to stay informed about the year ahead. For those looking for new markets to watch, here are the top 10 markets to pay attention to in the year ahead: 

• Nashville, TN
• Raleigh-Durham, NC
• Phoenix, AZ
• Austin, TX
• Tampa, FL
• Charlotte, NC
• Dallas, TX
• Atlanta, GA
• Seattle, WA
• Boston, MA

Real Estate Trends & Predictions For 2021

Commercial real estate was expected to face some interesting challenges throughout 2021. Most notably regarding the future of remote work and office buildings. With a large portion of the workforce remote due to COVID-19, many investors questioned the future of office buildings and long-term commercial leases. These concerns were heightened as big-name tech companies announced employees would be able to work from home permanently. Many expected
office buildings to reopen as the vaccine is distributed across the country and the economy returns to normal. 

While office spaces were expected to bounce back, so to speak — 2021 saw a rise in something called “dark stores.” Dark stores refer to retail outlets or distribution centers that have shut down inside operations and instead allow for curbside pickup or shipping. Dark stores were used before the COVID-19 pandemic, but as expected, they increased in size and demand as restrictions were put in place on in-person shopping and dining. Real estate investors hoping to tap into this trend today should look for properties that are easily accessible and in popular market areas. 

Warehouses represented another promising commercial property type for 2021. The demand for warehouses increased dramatically as retailers attempted to keep up with the rise in e-commerce. Real estate investors can expect the property value of warehouses and other industrial property types to continue to increase in the years ahead. Owners can not only benefit from property appreciation but an increase in average rent prices for these spaces. 

Unfortunately, not all areas of commercial real estate were expected to thrive as the world continues to feel the effects of the pandemic. Investors were warned to be wary of hotels and other areas of hospitality-related real estate. These industries are expected to recover at much slower rates than others, particularly in dense cities. Investors who are eager to find opportunities in hotels should be sure to focus on markets that are recovering more quickly than others. 

There are a few real estate markets that are expected to stand out in the year ahead as a result of job growth, cost of living, and population increase. Here are some of the top growing commercial real estate markets from 2021: 

• Austin, TX
• Tampa Bay, FL
• Atlanta, GA
• Nashville, TN
• Salt Lake City, UT
• Raleigh-Durham, NC
• Portland, OR
• Denver, CO

Real Estate Trends & Predictions For 2020

When 2020 began, many industry experts predicted sustainable but slow growth across the commercial real estate market. Experts predicted the impact of changing demographic trends, as both Baby Boomers and Millennials’ preferences changed regarding housing, office, and other properties. 

With the U.S. experiencing its longest expansion in history, many believed the slow and steady growth would continue in 2020. At the start of the year, mortgage rates were at 3.75%, according to Freddie Mac. This was nearly a 1% difference from the monthly average just a year ago. At the end of 2019, this drop in rates was the cause of a surge in refinancing and purchase activity. Among experts, there was a consensus that rates will remain low in 2020, somewhere between 3.7% and 3.9% 

Due to high demand, prices for homes were predicted to continue their climb upward. Home prices were estimated to rise by 5.6% by Fall 2020. This is an increase of about 2.1% from last year. With more and more listings coming on the market, there will be much more competition starting in early 2020. On the lower price end, low-interest rates and a shortage of entry-level homes will cause prices to rise even more. The shortage of entry-level homes is due to builders tending to focus more on higher-end, higher-profit homes.

Housing inventory was predicted to remain limited for most of 2020 due to interest rates and record-high homeownership tenures. According to Redfin, homeowners stay in their homes for an average of 13 years or higher, a 5-year increase from 2010. Homeownership tenure in some cities goes as high as 23 years. Essentially, you can’t buy what’s not for sale. Even with historically low rates, potential buyers risk buying in a market with a supply shortage. This trend was predicted to continue through 2020 and may even intensify in the coming years, directly affecting commercial real estate as a result. A bit of relief to this situation may come with the projected increase in construction. According to the Census Bureau report, both building permits and housing starts have increased over the year. Realistically, the pace of building is still behind historical standards, meaning it may take months before the pace can support the higher demand.

According to Realtor.com, Millennials were a significant 46% of all mortgage originations in September 2019. This was no surprise as many Millennials regard homeownership very highly in their life goals, even higher than getting married or having children. The combination of low-interest rates and higher incomes urged more and more Millennials to close deals on homes. A problem they face comes from the Baby Boomer generation. Many of this group choose to stay in place, resulting in more homes being kept off the market. As Millennials get older, many of them will move from urban to suburban areas. Although, they yearn for a community that can imitate the lifestyle of a lively city. This trend is drawing Millennials toward affordable suburban homes on the outside of major cities. As cities like New York and San Francisco become increasingly expensive, younger families populate the small towns outside major urban areas.

These commercial real estate trends give rise to the growth of a number of cities in the coming year. The best commercial real estate markets for overall investment and development in 2020 include:

• Austin
• Raleigh/Durham
• Nashville
• Charlotte
• Boston
• Dallas/Fort Worth
• Orlando
• Atlanta
• Los Angeles
• Seattle
• Tampa/St. Petersburg

These cities are the top commercial real estate markets in terms of population growth and net migration. Larger metros, such as Los Angeles and Boston, are projected to have slower population growth but will continue to be highly sought-after real estate markets that will continue to attract capital. 

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Real Estate Trends & Predictions For 2019

Released jointly by the Urban Land Institute and PwC, the annual Emerging Trends In Real Estate report highlighted a theme of unpredictability for 2019. Researchers stated that simply “connecting the dots” will no longer work and that this will be a “new era that will demand new thinking.”

The report also posited that 2019 would lend itself to overlapping trends, with the intersectionalities themselves leading to new conditions. For example, researchers postulated whether or not the technology used to improve productivity and efficiency would accelerate the industry’s downsizing. Investors were advised to prepare to be surprised in any way possible, which was great for spurring innovation and creativity within the industry. 

The following covers the top commercial real estate trends and predictions for 2019, as well as a review of the trends in preceding years. Federal officials have hinted that they will continue boosting interest rates to moderate inflation and stabilize the economy. The Federal Reserve hiked rates three times in 2018, between 2 and 2.25 percent. According to Curbed, the slowdown of economic growth will impact the real estate sector, especially in emerging markets. As real estate activity slows, investors will have a tougher time identifying new deals.

In 2018, much of the commercial market’s attention was focused on the compression of the retail industry. CBRE Head of Industrial Research, David Egan, predicted that the shift in demand from traditional retail to industrial real estate will continue. As large retailers focused on e-commerce, the demand for warehouse, shipping, and logistics spaces continued. This was especially true as more and more traditional retailers entered the online space. According to Bisnow, however, the retail industry is not dead. Instead, experts believed retailers would focus on delivering omnichannel shopping experiences, while e-commerce retailers would start opening physical store locations. (Amazon Books is an example of the latter.) Experts also warned investors would need to spend more time supporting the efficient use of commercial space. Retailers were predicted to seek out better (not bigger) brick-and-mortar presences.

Another trend highlighted in 2018, expected to continue in 2019, was the growing number of millennials flocking to secondary and suburban markets. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 2.6 million Americans moved from cities to suburbs in both 2017 and 2018. Experts believed this mass exodus occurred as millennials opted for larger, more affordable housing in suburbs when starting families. Neighborhoods that were walkable, transit-oriented, and have strong school systems attracted the most newcomers. This trend was of interest to commercial investors; with migration patterns leading to a spike in demand for retail development and employment centers. Multifamily developments experienced “amenity creep,” or a need to provide increased, high-end amenities to attract sophisticated renters and buyers.

Technology was also expected to play a big role in 2019. According to Curbed, industry-specific technology is changing the way real estate professionals do business. For example, there was been a boom in building and construction technology and a push for better, more transparent analytics reporting. Experts were also excited to see how machine learning and other emerging technologies could improve building management, organization, and design. The Urban Land Institute reported increased use of artificial intelligence in assets such as co-working spaces and smart buildings. Uses included building efficiency, safety, and security, as well as property access.

Amidst all these demographic and technology shifts, the Emerging Trends In Real Estate survey reported that construction costs topped the list of concerns for investors and developers. A decline in immigrant construction labor, superstorms leading to rebuilding efforts, and international trade wars were factors squeezing construction costs across the nation.

Finally, the commercial investing community gained a renewed focus on sustainability due to serious reports on climate change. Many investors turned to impact investing, making green practices a core part of their businesses. Keep reading to get an overview of the top commercial real estate trends from 2018 to better understand what factors contributed to these trends.

6 Trends Affecting The Commercial Real Estate Market

If you’re interested in getting your start in commercial investing, then you’ll definitely want to familiarize yourself with the trends and factors that influence commercial real estate market trends. Take some guesses on what kind of factors might attract new businesses and help certain markets boom. Did you guess any of the following trends correctly?
Commercial growth: Directly impacting job growth, the movement of major companies and sector-based growth can all lead to demand for commercial spaces and housing.

• Development: The urban development of city centers, business districts and public-private projects each affect the attractiveness of a market for commercial real estate tenants.
• Cost of business: The cost of conducting business will influence how companies move in and out of certain markets. Cities with relatively lower costs of conducting business are more likely to attract new businesses and employment.
• Infrastructure: Public infrastructure, including public transit, communication, electric and transportation systems all influence the ease of doing business in a market. Cities with continued infrastructure improvements are more likely to attract and retain residents, businesses and tourists.
• Housing: Local real estate prices, rental affordability, and housing options are all factors that contribute to the migration patterns of workers. For example, a major company may be influenced by their decision of where to move their new headquarters, based on the overall cost of living for their employees.
• Quality of life: Urban, walkable cities with plenty of public transit, parks, good schools, and entertainment all contribute to the general quality of life for residents. Great quality of life is important considerations for businesses and their employees.
• Tourism: The tourism industry presents many opportunities for commercial real estate to boom, such as hotels or airports.

How To Determine The Best Places To Buy Commercial Real Estate

Curious about which commercial real estate markets are best for getting started? It’s important to keep a few priority items in mind. Although there will always be variances, commercial markets that embody the following five criteria are known to offer the best returns for investors:

• Low Unemployment Rates: Cities that have a low or decreasing unemployment rate indicate a robust job market, with a probable demand for office and retail spaces.
• Low Purchase Prices: This might sound like a no-brainer, but it is important to find a property that is priced either below or at market value. If you want to profit off your renters, consider finding a slightly distressed property that is being sold for a deal. There is also the option to buy a commercial foreclosure property.
• High Asking Rents: Be sure to do your due diligence before jumping into commercial real estate and research comparable markets to see what average asking rent prices are. If the asking rent rate is high, and your purchase price is low, you should make a substantial profit.
• High Tenant Demand: Search for up-and-coming markets that are creating new jobs and developing new residential complexes because there will be an increased demand for space.
• Low Vacancy Rates: If you have high tenant demand coupled with low vacancy rates, you will be able to charge a higher rent price, therefore increasing your profits.
• Favorable Conditions For Business: Pay attention to local and regional economic policy. Are new plans attracting businesses to the area? Review the tax rates for business owners and economic growth as indicators.

Top 10 Fastest Growing Commercial Real Estate Markets

There are four different types of commercial real estate spaces investors can consider: retail, office, industrial, and multifamily complexes. If you’re looking to invest on a budget, experts recommend starting with either industrial spaces or multifamily complexes, as those options tend to have lower price points than retail and office spaces.

If you think you’re ready to make the jump into commercial real estate, consider these rapidly developing markets, which are arguably the best places to buy commercial real estate right now:

Summary

Although predicting the future of the commercial real estate market might seem like a job for economists and top-rate experts, the truth is that any investor can make their own educated guesses. As shown in this discussion, market trends are extremely interconnected from year to year. All you have to do is study up on market outcomes from previous years, as well as have an understanding of the economic drivers that impact the current commercial market. Investors who take the initiative to perform their own research and make educated predictions will be the ones who beat their competition and find the answer to: what are the best real estate markets for commercial investments?

Dreaming of homeownership? A mortgage loan can help you turn that dream into a reality. In this edition, we’re excited to explore the world of mortgage loans and how they can empower you to purchase your dream home. Let’s dive in!

Understanding Mortgage Basics:

Begin by familiarizing yourself with the different types of mortgage loans available. Research fixed-rate mortgages, where the interest rate remains constant throughout the loan term, providing stability in your monthly payments. Alternatively, explore adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer a lower initial interest rate that may adjust periodically based on market conditions. Understanding these options will help you make an informed decision when selecting a mortgage.

Building a Strong Credit Score:

A good credit score is essential when applying for a mortgage loan. Take steps to improve your credit score to access more favorable loan options. Pay your bills on time, reduce your overall debt, and keep your credit utilization ratio low. Regularly check your credit report for errors and address any discrepancies promptly. A strong credit score can lead to better interest rates and terms, potentially saving you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Exploring First-Time Homebuyer Programs:

If you’re a first-time homebuyer, explore special programs and incentives designed to assist you in the homeownership journey. Many regions offer down payment assistance programs, reduced interest rates, or educational resources to help you navigate the process. Research what options are available in your area and determine if you qualify for any of these programs. They can significantly ease the financial burden of buying your first home.

Saving for a Down Payment:

Start saving for a down payment as early as possible. A larger down payment can result in a lower loan amount, lower monthly payments, and potentially better interest rates. Review your budget and identify areas where you can cut back to allocate more funds toward your down payment. Consider automating your savings by setting up a separate account dedicated to your homeownership goal. Additionally, explore alternative down payment options, such as government assistance programs or grants.

Getting Pre-Approved:

Before house hunting, consider getting pre-approved for a mortgage loan. This process involves submitting your financial documents to a lender who will assess your financial situation and provide an estimate of the loan amount you qualify for. Pre-approval demonstrates your seriousness as a buyer and can give you a competitive edge when making an offer on a home.

Remember, buying a home is a significant financial decision, and taking the time to educate yourself about mortgage loans is crucial. By understanding mortgage basics, building a strong credit score, exploring first-time homebuyer programs, saving for a down payment, and getting pre-approved, you’ll be well-equipped to embark on your homeownership journey. Stay tuned for more insights and guidance on homeownership in our upcoming newsletters.

Wishing you success on your homeownership journey!