Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 9, 2020

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Total inventory was down 19%. If new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week
• Time on market was 13 days slower than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013
• New listings down 29%. Declines persist nationwide but momentum shifts in a positive direction 
• Median listing prices are still growing at a slower pace than pre-COVID, but they may regain momentum in the weeks to come

Data Summary

Weekly Housing Trends View

• New listings: Headed in the right direction? After a few weeks near -40 percent, the decline in newly listed for-sale homes took another step in the right direction nationwide with the size of declines down just less than 30 percent. We still see fewer sellers putting homes up for sale than last spring nationwide and in all large markets, which is unsurprising in this challenging market, but the momentum has shifted in a positive direction.
  In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 25, May 2, and May 9, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 43 percent, 39 percent, and 29 percent year-over-year, respectively. The continued declines in newly listed properties mean that we’ve yet to see supply turn back to normal. However, some improvement could be on the horizon as nearly three-quarters (75 of 97) of large metros are seeing smaller declines, including the three largest markets in the country New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.
• Asking prices: Sellers look for minimal home price growth, and the mix of homes for-sale appears to be reverting back toward pricier properties. 
  In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 25, May 2, and May 9, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of 1.6, 1.6 and 1.4 percent year-over-year, respectively. While current price gains remain below pre COVID-19 levels, we expect them to regain momentum in the weeks to come as sellers regain confidence and buyers slowly resume activity. Locally, 70 of 99 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.
• Total Active Listings: Countervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions, but so far the momentum limiting homes for sale is winning out. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks.
  Weekly data show total active listings declined 19 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, if new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week, especially if home buyers wade back into the market.
• Time on market: Time on market continues to show the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers. Time on market rose by double-digit percent growth nationwide and in three-quarters of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 9 showed that time on market was 13 days or 19percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is further confirmation of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 84 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago.