Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week November 27, 2021
Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In addition, we continue to give readers more timely weekly updates, an effort that began in response to the rapid changes in the economy and housing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Generally, you can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View on Thursdays with a weekly video update from our economists on Fridays. Here’s what the housing market looked like over the last week.
What this Week’s Data Means:
Compared to the last lockdown Thanksgiving, 6.3 million more Americans planned to travel to celebrate with their families and friends this year. As a result, it was not surprising to see more sellers pause their selling plans than last Thanksgiving, which led to a drop of 12% in new listings compared to year-ago levels. The double-digit decline in house supply intensified competition relative to last year: median listing price grew by 8.9%, the highest growth rate within the past 11 weeks. However, active inventory counts and home selling acceleration rates remained in the same range we’ve seen over the last few months. There were 27% fewer homes available for sale, and homes sold 8 days faster than last year.
Nevertheless, buyers should not feel over-stressed by the abnormal drop in housing supply in the last week, especially when considering the unusual conditions during the last thanksgiving. In fact, according to Realtor.com® 2022 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions, Americans will have a better chance to find a home next year.
- Inventory is expected to grow 0.3%.
- Home sales are predicted to grow by 6.6%.
- Home prices are predicted to advance at a more moderate pace of 2.6%.
Key Findings:
- The median listing price grew by 8.9 percent over last year. After an early-September uptick, home price growth has shifted back into high single-digit territory and displayed consistency. Home prices have risen by 8.5% to 8.9% relative to one year ago in 13 of the last 16 weeks. Home prices continue to rise due to a mismatch between supply and demand, stemming from a decade-long shortage of homebuilding. This means that housing affordability will be an increasingly important consideration for buyers, but with rents rising by 13.6%, buying may be the relatively more affordable housing option for some.
- New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down 12 percent from last year. New listings dropped for the second week in a row, and the year-over-year growth rate fell by 10 percentage points in just two weeks. This double-digit drop is the biggest decline after March 2021, and holiday celebrations could play an important role in cooling down the new listing supply. Although Thanksgiving’s impact on new listings could be temporary, availability of for-sale homes is an ongoing challenge and potential limiting factor. However, an improvement could be on the horizon, with more homeowners planning to sell in the next 6 months and single-family home construction continuing at 1 million+ pace.
- Active inventory continues to fall short and is down 27 percent from a year ago. With significant declines in new listings this week, it is not surprising to see an ongoing large gap in inventory, reflecting continuous imbalance between buyer interest and home selling. On the surface, this trend seems like it’s purely a buyer’s challenge, but notably, the majority of home sellers will also buy another home. Thus, buyer challenges can impact seller participation. In fact, more than 1 in 4 homeowners who are not planning to sell indicated that the reason holding them back is that they can’t find a new home in their price range.
- Time on market was down 8 days from last year. With fewer homes for sale now than this time last year, a typical home spent 50 days on market last week, continuing to move fast. And other research suggests that gaps are likely even larger in the competitive suburban housing markets that have remained popular this year. This means buyers in today’s housing market still need to be prepared to act quickly even as the fall gives buyers a few extra days to make decisions relative to what was common in spring and summer. Buyers can focus their home search using online tools to personalize their results so they can act quickly on listings that are the best fit.
Data Summary:
Data Summary:
| All Changes year-over-year | Year-to-Date 2021 | Week ending November 13, 2021 | Week ending November 20, 2021 | Week ending November 27, 2021 |
| Median Listing Prices | +11.3% | +8.7% | +8.6% | +8.9% |
| New Listings | -2% | +1% | -2% | -12% |
| Active Listings | -40% | -25% | -27% | -27% |
| Time on Market | 17 days faster | 10 days faster | 11 days faster | 8 days faster |