All posts by Doran

Continuing our research into the Real Estate market and our expectations over the next 6+ months or longer, we want to point out the disconnect between the current US stock market rally and the forward expectations related to the real economy.  Our researchers believe the current data from Realtor.com as well as forward expectations suggest a major shift related to “at-risk” real estate (both commercial and residential).

Unlike the 2008-09 credit crisis, the COVID-19 virus event is quickly disrupting consumer engagement within the global economy and disrupting spending activities.  Spending is shifting to online, fast food, and technology services for those that still have an income.  For those that have lost their jobs, spending is centered around surviving the COVID-19 virus event and hoping to see new opportunities and jobs when things open back up.

The coronavirus-fueled economic downturn is hitting homeowners hard. And the worst may be yet to come.

2008-09 Real Estate Price Collapse Chart

The biggest difference between 2008-09 and now is that the Real Estate sector is not the driving force behind the economic collapse – it is part of the collateral damage of the COVID-19 virus event related to failed consumer businesses, loss of jobs, disruption to the consumer economy and the destruction of income for many.  Yes, for a while, some people will be able to keep things together and “hold on” while hoping the economy comes back to life quickly.  Others won’t be so lucky.

The one aspect of all of this that people seem to fail to understand is the shift in consumer mentality related to the shifting economic environment.  Right now, consumers are dealing with the shock of job losses, the virus crisis itself and what the future US and global economy may look like.  Many people fail to understand that we really don’t know what the recovery process will become or when it will start.  Yes, we are making progress in trying to contain the COVID-19 virus, but the process of rebuilding the global economy to anywhere near the early 2020 levels is still many months away and full of potential collateral damage events.

Multi-Sector Price Trend Chart (Daily)

To help illustrate how the markets are reacting to the optimism of capital being poured into the global economy vs. the reality of the Consumer and Financial sectors, this chart highlights the SPY (BLUE) current price activity vs the NASDAQ 100 Financial Sector (GREEN) and the Consumer Discretionary sector (GOLD).  The SPY recently disconnected from a very close correlation to the other sectors near mid-April – about 2 weeks after the US Fed initiated the stimulus program.  The S&P, NASDAQ, and DOW Industrials have benefited from this disconnect by attracting new investments while the Consumer and Financial sectors have really started to come under moderate pricing pressure.

Concluding Thoughts:

We believe this disconnect is related to the perceived reality of certain investors vs. other types of investors.  Institutional traders may be pouring capital into the US major market indexes while more conservative traders are waiting out the “unknowns” before jumping into the global markets.  We believe the extended volatility will create waves of opportunity as capital rotates between sectors attempting to find new opportunities for quick gains.

We also believe the unknown collateral damage processes will present very real risks over the next 6+ months as the markets seek out a real bottom.

A recent MarketWatch article suggests a new mortgage crisis in inevitable given the disruption to the US economy and consumer’s ability to earn income and service debt levels.

Pay attention.  These recent rallies in the US major indexes may not be painting a very clear picture of the risks still present in the US economy.  It is almost like speculation is driving prices higher while economic data suggest major collateral damage is still unknown.  We suggest reviewing this research article for more details:

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-showing-signs-collateral-141407308.html

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Total inventory was down 19%. If new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week
• Time on market was 13 days slower than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013
• New listings down 29%. Declines persist nationwide but momentum shifts in a positive direction 
• Median listing prices are still growing at a slower pace than pre-COVID, but they may regain momentum in the weeks to come

Data Summary

	Week ending May 9	Week ending May 2	Week ending April 25	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-19% YOY	-19% YOY	-17% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	13 days slower YOY	11 days slower YOY	9 days slower YOY	-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	1.4% YOY	1.6% YOY	1.6% YOY	+4% YOY
New Listings	-29% YOY	-39% YOY	-43% YOY	+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View

• New listings: Headed in the right direction? After a few weeks near -40 percent, the decline in newly listed for-sale homes took another step in the right direction nationwide with the size of declines down just less than 30 percent. We still see fewer sellers putting homes up for sale than last spring nationwide and in all large markets, which is unsurprising in this challenging market, but the momentum has shifted in a positive direction.
  In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 25, May 2, and May 9, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 43 percent, 39 percent, and 29 percent year-over-year, respectively. The continued declines in newly listed properties mean that we’ve yet to see supply turn back to normal. However, some improvement could be on the horizon as nearly three-quarters (75 of 97) of large metros are seeing smaller declines, including the three largest markets in the country New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.
• Asking prices: Sellers look for minimal home price growth, and the mix of homes for-sale appears to be reverting back toward pricier properties. 
  In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 25, May 2, and May 9, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of 1.6, 1.6 and 1.4 percent year-over-year, respectively. While current price gains remain below pre COVID-19 levels, we expect them to regain momentum in the weeks to come as sellers regain confidence and buyers slowly resume activity. Locally, 70 of 99 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.
• Total Active Listings: Countervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions, but so far the momentum limiting homes for sale is winning out. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks.
  Weekly data show total active listings declined 19 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, if new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week, especially if home buyers wade back into the market.
• Time on market: Time on market continues to show the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers. Time on market rose by double-digit percent growth nationwide and in three-quarters of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 9 showed that time on market was 13 days or 19percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is further confirmation of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 84 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago. 

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 9, 2020

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Total inventory was down 19%. If new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week.
• Time on market was 11 days slower than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013.
• New listings were down 39%. Declines persist but seem to have roughly stabilized nationwide.

Data Summary

	Week ending May 2	Week ending April 25	Week ending April 18	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-19% YOY	-17% YOY	-15% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	11 days slower YOY	9 days slower YOY	6 days slower YOY	-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	1.6% YOY	1.6% YOY	0.3% YOY	+4% YOY
New Listings	-39% YOY	-43% YOY	-42% YOY	+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View

• Total Active Listings: Countervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions, but so far the momentum limiting homes for sale is winning out. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks.
  Weekly data show total active listings declined 19 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings and decrease in the previous momentum of buyer appetite outpacing housing supply; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, if new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week.
• Time on market: Time on market continues to show the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers. Time on market rose by double-digit percent growth nationwide and in three-quarters of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 2 showed that time on market was 11 days or 19percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is further confirmation of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 75 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago.
• New listings: Flattening the curve? Declines in newly listed for-sale homes persist but seem to have roughly stabilized nationwide with the size of declines remaining roughly the same in the last three weeks. Drops in newly listed homes are widespread, with all (98 of 98) large metros registering a smaller number of new listings than this time last year. Persistent declines still show that many sellers are reevaluating or postponing sales rather than wading into the current uncertain housing market.In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 18, and April 25, and May 2, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 42 percent, 43 percent and 39 percent year-over-year, respectively. Near steady declines in newly listed properties in the last few weeks suggest we’ve yet to see supply turn back to normal. However, some improvement could be on the horizon as more than two thirds (70 of 98) of large metros are seeing smaller declines, including large markets like Dallas, Chicago and Atlanta. 
• Asking prices: Sellers look for minimal home price growth, and the mix of homes for-sale continues to be shifted toward more lower-priced homes. In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 18, and April 25, and May 2, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of just 0.3, 1.6 and 1.6 percent year-over-year, respectively, registering some of the slowest pace of growth since 2013. This slight reacceleration suggests listing prices may regain momentum in the weeks to come as sellers regain confidence and buyers slowly resume activity. Locally, 65 of 99 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.
  So far we’re seeing a smaller share of asking price reductions compared to this time last year in the U.S. and most (92 of 100) of top metro areas, suggesting that while sellers aren’t pushing asking prices, they aren’t quick to reduce them. Additionally, high-cost areas such as the northeast have seen some strong seller reactions–de-listings and fewer new listings–which has shifted the distribution of homes for sale nationwide toward a lower price point. 

Post-COVID Trends in Mortgage-Financed Primary Home Purchases

• As dissected by my colleague, Sabrina Speianu, in the first month post-COVID-19, mortgage data** shows little change in trends by age group despite the major shifts in the housing market. Primary home purchases by Gen Z and Millennials are on the rise while Gen X, Boomers, and the Silent Generation are purchasing a smaller share of homes with mortgages. Similar trends are observed when looking at the generational shares of mortgage dollar volume.
• Home purchase prices are rising the most for younger generations with Millennials seeing a 9 percent increase and Gen Z seeing purchase prices rise 13 percent. For the first-time, the median purchase price for Millennials ($280,800) is approximately equal to that of Baby Boomers ($282,000).
• Perhaps as a result of low mortgage rates which may have caused younger buyers to pursue homes with higher purchase prices, average down payments have slid for Millennial and Gen-Z buyers in 2020, down to 7.8 percent for Millennials. Along with higher purchase prices and lower down payments, loan amounts are rising fastest for younger borrowers, with Gen Z seeing an 11 percent increase in median loan amount and Millennials seeing a nearly 15 percent increase.  
• Shares of home purchasing by generation show warmer areas gaining purchase share, especially among Boomers and Gen-Xers, and Charlotte, Denver, and Phoenix metro areas saw gains across generations.
• Dense metros in the Northeast and Midwest, especially New York and Detroit that have been hard-hit by COVID, saw decreasing shares of home buyers across generations.

Metro Areas Seeing Gains in Home Purchase Shares, by Generation
Baby Boomers	Gen X	Millennials
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY

Metro Areas Seeing Declines in Home Purchase Shares, by Generation
Baby Boomers	Gen X	Millennials
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA	New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA	New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	St. Louis, MO-IL	Los-Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
Kansas City, MO-KS	Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
St. Louis, MO-IL	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA	Kansas City, MO-KS

*Some data points for Los Angeles and Virginia Beach have been excluded due to data unavailability.

** Note: This report does not have a view of changes in generational trends among the cash-buying segment of home purchasers since its primary data source is loan origination data.

You can download weekly housing market data from our data page.

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 2, 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on the U.S. rental market. Approximately 9 million households have so far failed to pay their May rent, according to industry data. Last month, 1.4 million fewer households paid their rent compared with this time last year.

The country’s 44 million rental households are uniquely vulnerable amid the current public health and economic crises. Renters often lack financial security and legal protections, not to mention bargaining power vis-a-vis their landlords. Worse, many are now being hit by the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Low-income renters, especially, work in industries crippled by Covid-related job loss: retail, hospitality and leisure, restaurants, and construction. Data suggests that 16.5 million renter households have already lost income because of the economic shutdown.

Faced with the specter of massive housing loss, policymakers have taken some steps to keep tenants in their homes, not only to help the renters but also as a critical public health measure — after all, it’s hard to comply with a “stay at home” order if you don’t have a home, or to socially distance if you’re forced to move into tight quarters with family or friends. The CARES Act has temporarily protected many renters by providing billions of dollars for emergency housing assistance, significantly expanded unemployment benefits and halted some evictions through July. Dozens of states and cities have also temporarily halted evictions, and citiessuch as Los Angeles, Chicago and Philadelphia are providing emergency funding for tenants.

It appears these stopgaps are working, at least for now: We have not seen as severe a spike in nonpayment of rent as might otherwise be expected, and early rent payment figures from May look a bit more encouraging than April’s numbers.

But these remedies focus on the short term. Because of the scale of this downturn, many if not most unemployed renters will not have new jobs by the end of July. The federal government needs a long-term plan to prevent millions of unemployed renters from losing their homes when eviction moratoriums and unemployment sweeteners run out.

More shutdowns coming

Indeed, public health experts are predicting that the Covid-19 crisis will last well beyond the summer, and some government officials are bracing for waves of shutdowns that could continue for 12 to 18 months. It’s also likely that the U.S. will get hit with another, perhaps more deadly, wave of the virus next winter. When the economy does reopen, it will be in the throes of a deep recession during which millions of middle-income tenants will likely be unemployed and require housing assistance for the first time. Without smart, proactive policies to help millions of unemployed renters, we will be facing billions of dollars in rental debt, chaos at the eviction courts and overcrowded shelters primed for another outbreak.

Renters were struggling before the Covid-19 outbreak amid a well-documented affordable housing crunch. Nearly 40 percent of renter households are rent-burdened — meaning that they spend more than a third of their salary on rent — and two-thirds of renter households can’t afford an unexpected $400 expense.

On top of that, renters have few of the legal and financial protections offered to homeowners. Many states forbid renters from withholding rent even if their unit is in disrepair, most renters have no right to legal counsel during eviction proceedings, and once eviction judgments are handed down, renters can be evicted in a matter of days. And, partly as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, federal housing policy heavily favors homeowners over renters. Congress spends approximately three times as much on mortgage-interest reduction as it spends on rental housing vouchers each year. Whereas mortgage holders are protected by the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, notably through creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, no analogue exists for renters.

For the moment, these renters are being kept afloat through a combination of short-term emergency cash, unemployment benefits and eviction bans. But it won’t last past the summer. On top of the one-time $1,200 stimulus check, the extra $600 per week added to unemployment insurance checks expires in July. Unemployment doesn’t cover everyone, notably our 10 million to 12 million taxpaying undocumented immigrants — many of whom are renters — and those working in the informal economy providing child care, cleaning and other services. Another 8 million to 12 million unemployed Americans haven’t even bothered to apply, due to a well-documented backlog of claims and the difficult application process.

It’s not clear what appetite Congress has for extending the current short-term stimulus measures. Lawmakers might choose to extend the $600 per week unemployment sweetener past July. An extra $2,400 per month is more than enough to cover rent for most Americans, and once unemployment offices dig out from the initial crush of claims, delivering this assistance would be an efficient and direct way to keep more people in their homes. Yet Republicans are concerned that these expanded benefits are discouraging people from returning to work, and any such proposal would have to survive tough negotiations.

Meanwhile, the $300 billion recently provided in the most recent stimulus package to keep small business workers on payroll is likely already gone. Temporary rental assistance remains underfunded by tens of billions of dollars, and need is only growing as layoffs continue.

Mom-and-pop landlords

While landlords should be encouraged to reduce payments or implement repayment plans, canceling rent isn’t a viable option for many of them. The prototypical rental unit might be inside a high-rise apartment building owned by a real estate giant, but in fact the overwhelming majority of rental properties in this country are single-unit homes owned by mom-and-pop landlords. These property owners rely on rent to pay their own mortgages, to finance repairs and upkeep of rental properties, and to pay property taxes.

So, protecting tens of millions of renters in the midst of a deep recession won’t be easy. But Congress needs to recognize the importance of keeping rent checks flowing. Delinquent rents could easily spiral into foreclosed units and a consolidation of rental stock similar to Wall Street buy-ups after the Great Recession. That means an increase in substandard housing, worse property management and more marginalized Americans. What’s more, evictions cost U.S. cities hundreds of million of dollars per year. That money should be helping to prop up a struggling economy instead.

But while difficult, it’s not impossible to prevent a rental-housing crisis. Congress needs to expand direct rental assistance. That means cash for rent, sent either directly to landlords or renters.

The National Low Income Housing Coalition estimates that $100 billion in rental assistance would support 15.5 million low-income households over the next year. The Urban Institute’s estimate is about twice that, and accounts for renters of all incomes. That line item’s a drop in the bucket compared to the total stimulus funding Congress anticipates pushing through this year, and will stabilize millions of Americans’ largest household expenditure.

Several mechanisms

There are several mechanisms Congress could chose for this. Cash could be directly provided for rent through the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s existing Emergency Solutions Grant network, in which local services providers administer funds to those at risk of homelessness, or through temporary expansion of the department’s Housing Choice Voucher program, through which local housing agencies pay landlords a portion of low-income tenants’ rent. While some housing agencies might face a flurry of new applications, most unemployed American renter households with zero income would easily qualify.

Alternatively, Congress could attempt to funnel money more directly to landlords. The benefit of this approach is that there are fewer landlords than tenants, and they’re easier to track down. The drawback is that this approach would involve creating an entirely new program. If Congress goes this route, it could model a program on the Treasury Department’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), focused on landlords’ non-owner occupied homes, or expand the Federal Reserve’s Main Street Lending program to allow lending to the rental industry.

The bottom line is that Congress needs to find a way to inject funding into the rental ecosystem — whether through unemployment insurance, rental assistance or direct payment to landlords. Protecting our renters won’t be cheap, and it won’t be easy. But ignoring the coming crisis will cost billions more down the line in the form of rental debt and landlord foreclosures, and could keep millions of Americans from safely sheltering in place. That’s something we truly can’t afford.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/rental-crisis-coming-avoid-163959843.html

Americans are returning to the housing market, as evidenced by a jump in applications for mortgages to purchase homes, though not at the same level as last year.

A seasonally adjusted index measuring purchase applications rose 6% in April’s last week, compared to the prior week, according to a report Wednesday from Mortgage Bankers Association.

Purchase volume increased for the third week in a row, led by strong growth in Arizona, Texas and California, according to Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist.

We’re still not back to where we were during last year’s spring market, he said, as about half of U.S. states begin resuming some level of economic activity amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Although purchase activity remains almost 19% below year-ago levels, this annualized deficit has decreased as more states reopen amidst the apparent, pent-up demand for homebuying,” Fratantoni said.

MBA’s overall index measuring purchase and refinance applications advanced 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from a week earlier while the group’s refinance index decreased 2% from the previous week – though it remained 210% higher than the same week a year ago.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 70% of all applications from 72% the previous week, Fratantoni said.

Some of the decline in refi applications is due to pandemic-related job losses that restrict a homeowner’s ability to apply for a new loan, and some has to do with the terms of the mortgages lenders are offering.

“Despite lower rates, refinance applications dropped, as many lenders are offering higher rates for refinances than for purchase loans, and others are suspending the availability of cash-out refinance loans because of their inability to sell them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” Fratantoni said.

The share of applications for mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration fell to 11.1% from 11.5% a week earlier, the report said. The share for home loans backed by the Veterans Administration remained unchanged at 13.3%.

Americans are buying homes again, mortgage data shows

Buying a property in Chicago is still considered as a good real estate investment. We’ll be discussing the latest Chicago housing market trends to find out how they can affect the investors and homebuyers in 2020. Chicago metropolitan area or Chicagoland, is an area that includes the city of Chicago and its suburbs.

Although the most expensive home in the Chicago housing market in 2020 is a $45 million single family home, located in the North Side neighborhood, there are many properties available around the median price of $247,000.

In 2018, the Chicago real estate appreciation rate was running at about half the national rate; at 3 percent range when the nation was at 6 percent. After cooling off, Chicago became the weakest housing market of 2019. The home prices grew by mere 1.5 percent, lagging behind the nation. The market is now expected to heat up in the coming months.

Chicago is still a strong renter’s market. Over 50% of the populations rents in this city. So if you buy a Chicago real estate investment to use as a rental property, you could benefit in this market. Although the recent population loss has been a concern for real estate investors, Chicago is still the most populous city in the Midwestern United States. About three million people live in Chicago and another ten million in the surrounding metro area. Chicago MSA is the third largest metropolitan area in the U.S.

It has a large population, diverse economy, and a stable market. It is home to 32 Fortune 500 companies, with a very high private sector employment. Chicago’s 58 million domestic and international visitors in 2018 made it the second most visited city in the nation, as compared with New York City’s 65 million visitors in 2018.

How is the robust housing market in Chicago shaping up in 2020 for real estate investors as well as home buyers? Well, the home prices are expected to flatten nationwide, increasing by just 0.8%, and buyers will continue to move to affordability, benefiting mid-sized markets. However, the real estate appreciation rate in Chicago in the latest quarter was around 1.29% which equates to an annual appreciation forecast of roughly between 5% to 6%.

For sellers in Chicago, a nice profit could be on the horizon. Even small changes in the appreciation rate can change the long-term value of buying considerably. Let’s learn more about the factors that make Chicago a nice place to invest in real estate.

What Makes Chicago Real Estate Market Attractive For Investment?

Chicago was ranked first in the 2018 Time Out City Life Index (Time Out Group).On the UBS list of the world’s richest cities.Often rated as having the most balanced economy in the United States.Ranked seventh in the entire world in the 2017 Global Cities Index.Home to 12 Fortune Global 500 companies and 17 Financial Times 500 companies.Third-largest gross metropolitan product in the United States.Strong Rental Market – Over 50% of the population rents.Fully renovated single family homes with great ROI.Solid blue-collar areas with high rents.High private sector employment.Major transportation hub in the United States.It has largest number of federal highways & railroads in the nation.Strong economic and job growth.Chicago tourism recorded 55 million visitors in 2017.The tourism and hospitality industries have added thousands of jobs, generating billions of dollars in direct spending by visitors.International hub for finance, culture, commerce, industry, education, technology, telecommunications, and transportation.2% increase in Chicago’s government employment between November 2018 to November 2019 (Bls.gov).

These are just some of the highlights that make Chicago a great place to live and invest in real estate. The list can go on and on. Chicago is a also a major world financial center, having the second-largest central business district in the United States. Let’s continue to explore the city’s housing market to understand what it will look like in 2020.

Real estate prices are deeply cyclical because its demand side is impacted by economic cycles, and also because demand has historically outweighed supply. Much of it is dependent on factors you can’t control. Therefore, there are many variables that can potentially impact the value of real estate in Chicago in 2020 (or any other market) and some of these variables are impossible to predict in advance.

Chicago Real Estate Market Forecast 2020 – 2021

The Chicago housing market is shaping up to continue the trend of the last few years as one of the hottest markets in the United States. It is also one of the hottest real estate markets for investing in rental properties.

What are the Chicago real estate market predictions for 2020? Let us look at the price trends recorded by Zillow over the past few years. Since 2015, the median home prices in Chicago have appreciated by roughly 20.5% from $205,000 to $246,933, according to Zillow’s data.

As you can see in the graph, the Chicago housing market was weak in 2019, essentially flat. In fact, November was the third straight month that home values grew by less than 1 percent, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. In the November report, Chicago’s home price growth was the weakest among the 20 major U.S. cities that the index tracks.

In the last twelve months, the Chicago real estate has appreciated by 0.3%. Chicago is expected to see home prices gains in 2020, albeit at a softer pace compared to the nation’s largest markets. The latest Chicago real estate market forecast is that the home prices will rise by 3.2% – in the next twelve months.

The latest real estate data from Zillow shows that the current median home value in Chicago is $246,933. This indicates that home prices in Chicago are well above the national average for all cities and towns in the United States.

Here is a snapshot that shows the median home values in the some of the popular neighborhoods in or around Chicago.

Chicago is currently a warm seller’s real estate market. This indicates that there are more real estate buyers in the Chicago than there are sellers. When demand is higher than the supply, home prices increase, which benefits sellers. Zillow reports that 14.5% of the listings in Chicago had a price cut in Jan 2020.

Here is the Chicago real estate price appreciation graph by Zillow. It shows us the current home price appreciation forecast of 3.2% till Feb 2021.

Chicago Housing Market Forecast 2021

Here is a short and crisp Chicago housing market forecast for the 3 years ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2021. The accuracy of this forecast for Chicago is 84% and it is predicting a positive trend. The LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising home prices in Chicago is 84% during this period. If this price forecast is correct, the Chicago home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2018.

Chicago Real Estate Market Trends – Prices, Inventory & Sales

Analyzing real estate data from multiple sources gives us a much broader perspective of the direction in which a market is moving. We shall now discuss some of the most recent housing trends in the Chicago area from multiple sources and compare it with past couple of years. We shall mainly discuss about median home prices, inventory, growth and neighborhoods, which will help you understand the way the local real estate market moves in this region.

Chicago is the 6th most walkable city in the nation. Chicago metro area has a population of approximately 8,865,000, a 0.03% increase from 2019. It is the most populous city in the U.S. state of Illinois, and the third-most-populous city in the United States. 

On average, homes in Chicago, IL sell after 86 days on the market. The trend for median days on market in Chicago, IL is flat since last month, and slightly up since last year.Chicago’s home resale inventories is 6,505, which is a decrease of 15% since last year, according to Movoto.com. The median list price per square foot in Chicago is $258. In March 2020 it was $259. Distressed properties such as foreclosures and short sales remained the same as a percentage of the total market in April.In terms of months of supply, the Chicago market can tip to favor buyers if the supply increases to more than six months of inventory. However, looking at the current trends, we don’t see things moving in that direction. For upcoming updates you can check visit their website. It is expected that there will be some improvement on the inventory crisis. Certain areas in the Chicago housing market would see more properties for sale on the market than other locations.

According to Neighborhoodscout.com, a real estate data provider, one and two bedroom large apartment complexes are the most common housing units in Chicago. Other types of housing that are prevalent in Chicago include single-family detached homes, duplexes, row houses and homes converted to apartments.

At the national level, the single family rental homes have grown up to 30% within the last three years. Almost all the housing demand in the US in recent years has been filled by single family rental units. With 2020 being, theoretically, in the middle of a boom, there’s still 4 years for residential construction to surge. Most likely, a housing shortage will remain in 2020, keeping home prices high.

Chicago has a mixture of owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing units. Trulia has currently 9,413 resale and new homes for sale in Chicago, IL including open houses, and homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. The median sales price is $280,000 and homes are selling for about $235/sqft.

Currently, there are 2617 homes for sale in Chicago on Zillow, an online real estate database company. Additionally, there are 292 homes for rent. Under potential listings, there are about 257 Foreclosed and 3000 Pre-Foreclosure homes. These are the delinquent properties that may be coming to the market soon but are not yet found on a multiple listing service (MLS).

• The median list price per square foot in Chicago is $243, which is higher than the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin Metro average of $165.
• The median price of current listings is $329,000.
• The median price of homes that are sold out is $303,400.
• The median rent price in Chicago is $1,761, which is higher than the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin Metro median of $1,685.

There are currently 13,932 homes for sale and 14,751 homes for rent in Chicago, IL on Realtor.com, a real estate listings website. According to their statistics, in February 2020 the Chicago housing market was a buyer’s market, which means there were roughly more active homes for sale than there were buyers.

However, as per other real estate data companies, Chicago would fully transition into a warm seller’s market, having a positive price appreciation forecast for the next twelve months.

Ideally a buyer would prefer a sale to asking price ratio that’s closer to 90%. The sellers in Chicago have managed to hold good leverage in these negotiations in the past month. On an average, they could sell homes for 97.74% of the asking price. A seller would always prefer scenarios which can yield a ratio of 100% or higher.

• In February 2020, the median list price of homes in Chicago was $339,900, trending up 4.6% year-over-year.
• The median listing price per square foot was $233.
• The median sale price was $289,900.
• The median rent price was $1,950.

The asking price of single family homes in Chicago can start from $10,000 and can go up to $45M for a luxury property located in North Side neighborhood . There are currently 712 newly listed homes and 197 new construction houses available for sale in the Chicago housing market.

Lincoln Park has a median listing price of $675,000, making it the most expensive neighborhood in Chicago. Auburn Gresham is the most affordable neighborhood, with a median listing price of $175,000.

Homes For Sale in Chicago	13932
Homes For Rent in Chicago	14751
Median Listing Price	$339,900
Median Sale Price	$289,900
Sale to Asking Price Ratio	97.74%
Median Rent	$1,950
New Listings	712
New Construction Houses	197
Median List Price/Sq Ft	$233
Home Price Range	$10k to $45M
Most Expensive Neighborhood	Lincoln Park
Most Affordable Neighborhood	Auburn Gresham

Chicago, IL Foreclosures And Bank Owned Homes Statistics 2020

As per the Chicago foreclosure data by Zillow, the percent of delinquent mortgages in Chicago is 1.3%, which is higher than the national value of 1.1%. The percent of Chicago homeowners underwater on their mortgage is 21.4%, which is higher than Chicago-Naperville-Elgin Metro at 13.5%.

There are currently 4,445 properties in Chicago, IL that are in some stage of foreclosure (default, auction or bank owned) while the number of homes listed for sale on RealtyTrac is 5,143. In February 2020, the number of properties that received a foreclosure filing in Chicago, IL was 6% lower than the previous month and 6% lower than the same time last year.

Potential Foreclosures in Chicago	4445 (RealtyTrac)
Homes for Sale in Chicago	5143
Recently Sold	17917
Median List Price	$285,000 (2% rise vs Jan 2019)

In Chicago, the zip code with the highest foreclosure rate is 60643, where 1 in every 403 housing units is foreclosed. 60644 zip code has the lowest foreclosure rate, where 1 in every 562 housing units becomes delinquent.

Is Chicago a Good Place To Invest in Real Estate?

Now that you know where Chicago is, you probably want to know why we’re recommending it to real estate investors. Is Chicago a Good Place Real Estate Investment? Investing in real estate is touted as a great way to become wealthy. Many real estate investors have asked themselves if buying a rental property in Chicago is good investment?

You need to drill deeper into local trends if you want to know what the market holds for the year ahead. We have already discussed the Chicago housing market 2020 forecast for answers on why to put resources into this market.

Purchasing an investment property in Chicago real estate is a little different from shopping for your car or primary residence. While you still want to get the most for your money, if you are looking to make a profit, you don’t want to buy the most expensive property on the Chicago real estate market and expect to make a good profit on rents.

Perhaps you are looking for a slightly different hold-over, a turnkey investment property in Chicago that you might move into or sell at retirement in the future! Either way, knowing your profit potential and purpose is the first thing to consider.

Let’s take a look at the number of positive things going on in the Chicago real estate market which can help investors who are keen to buy an investment property in this city.

1. Strong Rental Market

What makes Chicago such a hot market for rental real estate? Over 50% of the population rents. The large population of renters means that rental income for properties is far better than you’d see if you invested elsewhere in the country. Schaumberg reported slowing sales simply due to tight supply according due to data from the Chicago Association of Realtors; this drives many people forming new households or moving into the area to rent at whatever the market will bear.

2. Luxury Rentals Are a Profitable Niche in Chicago

Many people know that there are solid blue-collar areas with high rents, but it isn’t just the working class that rents townhomes and condos. According to Crain’s, the number of upper income households in Cook County that rent has nearly doubled over the past ten years.

The Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University found that the number of rental households among those earning at least $132,000 a year nearly doubled, while those earning $80,000 to $132,000 saw the number of renting households increase by just over 50%. Chicago has a booming supply of high end rentals, especially luxury apartments in downtown.

3. Chicago Real Estate Prices Are Reasonable

Because households at all income levels choose to rent instead of buy, they are reducing demand for houses for sale, slowing the rise in home prices. This also explains why housing prices haven’t skyrocketed despite limited supply. Chicago’s inventory of homes for sale is very tight. Both attached and detached single family home inventory has been declining since 2012.

At the end of 2017, potential buyers in Chicago had about five thousand fewer properties on the market to select from than if they’d been shopping at the end of 2016. This contributed to homes closing five days faster than the year before. If you start shopping for rental real estate, you could find something and rent it out.

4. Home Prices Are Appreciating

Chicago’s real estate market has been one of the slowest to recover since the housing bubble burst at the start of the Great Recession. Home prices were 19% below their pre-crash levels in 2017, and they aren’t expected to hit peak values until 2020.

This means that the Chicago real estate market is likely going to continue its slow, upward market trend. Trulia expects prices to grow about 2.5% in 2018. Trends in Chicago show a 1% year-over-year rise in median sales price and a 3% rise in median rent per month.

5. Rehabbed Homes Are Readily Available

Chicago is seeing a surge in fully renovated single family homes. The Chicago Association of Realtors’ data found that most of the strong suburbs are on the south side of Chicago, and this is where many homes are being rehabbed and sold. Calumet Heights is in this category; a quarter of properties sold were either rehabbed or candidates for rehabilitation. These properties are ideal for investors who want to buy a property to rent out.

6. Job Growth Keeps People Coming

Chicago is not only home to a number of corporate headquarters; there has been a recent trend of companies moving their headquarters to Chicago as well. The steady increase in jobs has contributed to a slow but steady increase in rents. Many businesses are attracted by Chicago’s labor pool, the largest in the nation. As these businesses move into the area and attract relocating professionals, many are forced to rent because they can’t find houses fast enough in the areas they want to live or simply choose to rent upon relocation in one of the luxury apartments downtown.

The Chicago metropolitan area is made up of four metropolitan divisions—separately identifiable employment centers within the larger metropolitan area. In the greater Chicago metropolitan area, education and health services had the largest employment gain from November 2018 to November 2019, adding 15,600 jobs. The Chicago area’s 2.1-percent rate of job growth in education and health services was lower than the nationwide advance of 2.9 percent.

Chicago’s government supersector added 10,800 jobs from November 2018 to November 2019. Local job growth was concentrated in educational services, which added 10,600 jobs. The 2.0-percent increase in Chicago’s government employment compared to a gain of 0.7 percent nationally.

7. Churn Keeps People Renting

Chicago’s unemployment rate has gone up while dropping in other cities as jobs shift from Chicago to the suburbs. This economic uncertainty keeps many who can afford to buy a home renting. It also keeps the rental market itself strong, since many want to remain free to follow their jobs as required.

8. Trump’s Tax Plan Makes Many Reluctant to Buy – Unless It Is a Rental

Uncertainty about the deductibility of hefty property tax bills is making many reluctant to buy a home, though this is less of an issue for a real estate investor who will rent out the property. Chicago and its suburbs have some of the highest property taxes in the nations. Around 12% of Chicago area homes have a tax bill of more than $10,000 a year. Yet that’s better than some of the most expensive real estate markets in the country.

For example, in New York, more than 20% of homes have a property tax bill that high. In Orange County, California, more than half would. This means that limits or the loss of property tax deductions won’t hurt Chicago as badly as it would California or New York, and if it does have an impact, it will mostly be at the higher end of the Chicago real estate market.

9. You Can Find Hot Single Family Markets with Rapid Appreciation

Home prices in the Chicago area are low compared to regional income. Yet economic uncertainty and shifts in the employment market are leaving many who want to live in a single family home unable to afford to buy one. This is causing many to rent single family homes instead.

Crain’s April real estate report found that the hottest markets for detached single family homes were in Calumet Heights, Gage Park and West Ridge. However, home prices are low compared to rents almost everywhere in the Chicago metropolitan area.

10. There Are Opportunities in Chicago Multi-Family Housing, Too

The workforce in Chicago is shifting from high paying but slow-to-no growth manufacturing jobs to lower paying and less stable retail, business services and healthcare jobs. This is causing many who would have been able to afford a middle class home to rent apartments instead. Crain’s April real estate report stated that the hottest Chicago markets for condos and townhomes were Grand Boulevard, Kenwood and Lincoln Square.

Investing in Chicago Real Estate: Advice For New Buyers

Maybe, you have done a bit of real estate investing in Chicago, IL but want to take things further and make it into more than a hobby on the side. It’s only wise to think about how you can and should be investing your money. In any property investment, cash flow is gold. Should you consider Chicago real estate investment?

In Chicago, arts and culture abound at top institutions like The Art Institute. Although the winters can test anyone’s resolve, Chicago summers are among the best in the world, with things to do every weekend, outdoor festivals, and Lake Michigan at your doorstep.

Chicago has an incredibly deep pool of potential renters at all levels of the market. A number of factors guarantee that they’re not going to turn into new home buyers any time soon. Chicago real estate market is a prime destination for investors who would like to buy where the ROI is going to be high and likely to improve over time. It won’t be long before Chicago makes you feel right at home.

A good cash flow from Chicago rental property means the investment is, needless to say, profitable. A bad cash flow, on the other hand, means you won’t have money on hand to repay your debt. Therefore, finding a best investment property in Chicago in a growing neighborhood would be a key to your success.

If you invest wisely in Chicago real estate, you could secure your future. If you are a beginner in the business of cash flow real estate investing, it very important to read good books on real estate. The less expensive the Chicago investment property is, the lower your ongoing expenses will be.

When looking for real estate investment opportunitiesin Chicago or anywhere in the country, the generally accepted standard is to purchase a property that will give you a modest but minimum 1% profit on your investment. An example would be: at $120,000 mortgage or investment cost, $1200 per month rental.

That would be the ideal equation example. Even with rent increases, buying a $500,000 investment property in Chicago is not going to get you $5000 per month on rent. When looking for the best real estate investments in Chicago, you should focus on neighborhoods with relatively high population density and employment growth.

Both of them translate into high demand for housing. If housing supply meets housing demand, real estate investors should not miss the opportunity since entry prices of homes remain affordable.

Some of the popular neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois are Near North Side, Lakeview, West Town, Andersonville, South Loop, Bronzeville, Norridge, Logan Square, Old Town, Wicker Park, Bridgeport, Irving Park, Norwood Park, Bucktown, West Loop and Hyde Park.

Chicago’s North Side is the city’s most densely populated residential section. In the $200,000 price, you can purchase properties with one or two bedrooms and one or two baths. Chicago’s West Side is home to the University of Illinois at Chicago. With a $200,000 budget, you can buy condos that typically offer one to two bedrooms and one or two baths

You must also collaborate and learn from savvy real estate investors who have retired early on in their lives by investing in some of the best real estate markets like Chicago.

Chicago Housing Market 2020: Is It Really Good For Investment?

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports which break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends View

• Time on market: Slower to react, time on market now clearly shows the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers nationwide and in half of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. Last week, median days on market were one day greater than the year ago level, and we expected time on market to rise. This week’s data showed that time on market was 6 days or 10 percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is the first clear sign of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers.  It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 54 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago. Importantly, analysis of metro data from last week shows a strong link between the prevalence of COVID-19 in a market and increasing time on market.  In the 10 worst-hit metros, time on market was up 15 percent, compared to just a 2 percent increase among the 10 least-affected metro areas, analysis detailed here. 
• New listings: Past the peak? Declines in newly listed for-sale homes persist nationwide and in nearly all (97 of 99) large metros, but the size of declines shrank compared to last week. Persistent declines still show that many sellers are reevaluating or postponing sales rather than wading into the current uncertain housing market.
  
  In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 4, and April 11, and April 18, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 31 percent, 47 percent and 42 percent year-over-year, respectively. While this improvement is small and only visible in one week of data, far below the threshold we’d need to declare that we’re past the worst in housing, we see a similar trend in nearly three-quarters of the top 100 metros (73 of 99) including several hard-hit areas like Seattle, Boston, and New Orleans. The largest drops in new listings persist in Detroit, New York, and Philadelphia.
  
  Additionally, analysis of metro data from last week shows a strong link between the prevalence of COVID-19 in a market and fewer new listings. In other words, areas particularly hard-hit by COVID-19 were showing the strongest seller reactions, as detailed here. 
• Asking prices: Sellers hold asking prices steady and the mix of homes for-sale shifts toward more lower-priced homes.
  
  In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 4, and April 11, and April 18, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of just 1.6, 0.8 and 0.3% year-over-year, respectively, the latter marking the slowest pace of growth since 2013. Viewed another way, asking prices typically increase in the spring. Last year, the median list price rose more than 4 percent from early March to early April whereas this year the median list price has remained flat in that same window.
  
  Sellers that are choosing to sell now seem to recognize the market challenges and may be pricing homes less aggressively upon listing than they were pre-COVID which is why we are seeing steady asking prices. Majorities of buyers and sellers do not anticipate large-scale price declines. A survey from the National Association of Realtors conducted April 19-20 shows that 53 percent of buyer agent clients expect home prices to increase or decline only mildly (by less than 5 percent). Similarly, 89 percent of agents with seller clients had either not reduced their asking price or had done so by less than 5 percent. These results support trends we’re seeing in the listing data. So far we’re seeing a smaller share of asking price reductions compared to this time last year in the U.S. and three-quarters (74 of 99) of top metro areas.
  
  Additionally, high-cost areas such as the northeast have seen some strong seller reactions–de-listings and fewer new listings–which has shifted the distribution of homes for sale nationwide toward a lower price point. 
• Total Active Listings: Countervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions. Data shows stable declines in total active listings and expect this trend to continue.
  
  Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings and decrease in the previous momentum of buyer appetite outpacing housing supply; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, we think total active listings will continue to decline, but at a very gradually slowing pace. Weekly data show total active listings declined 15% compared to a year ago, with the pace of declines remaining nearly constant since mid March.

Buyers and sellers holding back in response to COVID

In addition to it’s weekly listings data, realtor.com conducted a quick survey of its users from April 15-17 and here are a few key findings.

• 38% of buyers are looking to postpone their home purchase citing the economy and worries about the ability to tour homes.
• Buyers claim to be spending more time on real estate sites/apps. Floor plans and detailed property information top their list of asks from these providers
• 77% of the sellers surveyed are also looking to buy a home. More than half of those had neither listed their home yet nor found a home to buy

*Some data points for Los Angeles and Las Vegas have been excluded due to data unavailability.

Weekly Housing Trends View–Data Week April 18, 2020

Mortgage rates went up slightly this week — an indication that mortgage firms are changing their lending operations in response to the coronavirus.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.33% during the week ending April 16, representing an increase of two basis points from a week ago, Freddie Mac FMCC, reported Thursday. 

The 15-year fixed rate mortgage increased six basis points to an average of 2.86%. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgage, meanwhile, fell six basis points over this last week, averaging 3.28%.

Mortgage rates rose this week in spite of the 10-year Treasury note’s yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.602% , which fell in response to major volatility in energy markets globally. Historically, mortgage rates have roughly followed the direction of long-term bond yields, but that relationship has weakened amid the coronavirus crisis.

“While investors kept bond rates at historic levels under 1.0 percent, mortgage rates did not follow on a downward arc due to the fact that banks and lenders are pricing loans for the higher risk they are assuming by raising FICO FICO, -0.53% scores and down-payment requirements,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com.

Banks are imposing stricter standards for new borrowers

The rise in rates also comes as lenders are rethinking who they will lend to amid the coronavirus pandemic. “Lenders are announcing more stringent underwriting requirements and exiting some products completely,” said Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree TREE, +2.38% . “This means many potential homebuyers and those looking to refinance will have greater difficulty accessing credit.”

JPMorgan JPM, +0.05%, one of the country’s largest lenders, has raised the requirements borrowers must meet to be eligible for most new home loans, Reuters first reported last week. Customers will need a credit score of at least 700 to qualify and must have saved funds equivalent to a 20% down payment. 

Amy Bonitatibus, chief marketing officer for JPMorgan Chase’s mortgage business, told Reuters the changes were made “due to economic uncertainty” so that the bank could “more closely focus on serving our existing customers.”

Other mortgage companies have followed suit in tightening certain requirements. And Flagstar FBC, +3.71% which was the 10th largest mortgage lender in the country by total loan volume as of 2018, has raised the minimum credit score for new FHA, VA and USDA purchase loans to 680. For cash-out refinances, the bank now requires that borrowers have at least a 700 credit score.

Depending on the type of loan, that equates to an increase in the minimum credit score of between 20 and 40 points, said Kristy Fercho, executive vice president and president of mortgage at Flagstar Bank.

“JPMorgan is one of the top originators in the market, and they in some ways set the standard for what other lenders are going to do,” Fercho, who is also the vice chairman of the Mortgage Banker Association, said. “And so you pay attention when JPMorgan makes changes like that.”

If a lender doesn’t make changes after one of the largest companies in the industry does so, Fercho said, they risk the possibility of attracting borrowers in worse financial shape who might be more likely to go into default.

‘JP Morgan is one of the top originators in the market, and they in some ways set the standard for what other lenders are going to do.’— Kristy Fercho, president of mortgage at Flagstar Bank

The Federal Housing Finance Agency this week announced that Fannie Mae FNMA, +2.28% and Freddie Mac could buy loans in forbearance — a sign that lenders have been closing mortgages, only for borrowers to soon need to stop making payments because of income loss related to the coronavirus.

Beyond imposing stricter standards in terms of credit scores and down payments, mortgage lenders have taken other steps to prevent the possibility of making risky home loans. 

As part of the underwriting process, lenders are required to verify a borrower’s employment. Typically that’s done around 10 days before the loan is closed, but now some lenders are moving toward doing this verification on the day of closing in response to the tumultuous economic landscape.

“People are losing jobs at such an alarming rate across America that we want to verify the day of closing that they are still employed,” said Mat Ishbia, president and CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage.

Also see:These U.S. housing markets are most vulnerable to a coronavirus downturn

Additionally, United Wholesale Mortgage and Wells Fargo WFC, -1.00% are putting into place different reserve requirements for self-employed borrowers.

Lenders stress that these changes are temporary, and time will tell how quickly mortgage companies return to business as usual. “You just want to make sure that you’re setting people up for success so that they’ll be able to stay in that home,” Fercho said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-go-up-slightly-as-some-lenders-tighten-restrictions-on-who-qualifies-for-a-home-loan-2020-04-23?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

The average monthly payroll calculation is the most important part of the PPP loan application because it not only determines the size of the loan you can apply for, but it’s also the easiest area to make a mistake. We know this because Our Lendee has reviewed thousands of PPP applications in the past few days while discussing the final rule published by the SBAand the application itself with our bank partners. Here is a step-by-step guide as to how to accurately calculate the average payroll number used for the PPP application to ensure that your application is submitted successfully the first time and you get your funding as quickly as possible.

Step 1: Pull the necessary documents.

Although calculating an average monthly payroll number to enter on your application may not be difficult, banks need to see the backup documentation and they will likely prioritize applications that are complete and clearly organized. Payroll registers, tax documents, and even bank statements can be used as documentation for your average monthly payroll calculation. We recommend that you pull documents that are at the intersection of easiest for you and requested by the bank you’re applying to. Keep in mind that the SBA has confirmed that payroll records are sufficient documentation to establish average monthly payroll and we also recommend reading the FAQs published April 7 by the SBA and the Dept. of the Treasury.

Apply for a PPP Loan Now

Payroll Documentation

Generally speaking, you’ll need to pull the annual payroll register by employee, either for 2019 or the last 12 months. The report should show gross wages, tips, vacation and benefits payments, and taxes. If you use a PEO or payroll processing software, many have special PPP reports they created specifically for this program. Additionally, while you’re in your payroll system, we recommend downloading a payroll statement for February as the SBA requires proof of payroll as of 2/15/2020.

Here’s our summary of the PEOs / payroll software providers that have provided tailored reports:

Payroll Provider	Link to Special PPP report
ADP	2020 CARES Act SBA-PPP Reports
Gusto	Paycheck Protection Program Report
Justworks	Paycheck Protection Program Report
Patriot Software	I need payroll data for the SBA PPP
Paychex	What Is the Small Business Paycheck Protection Program?
Paycor	Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)|Infographic|Payroll Protection
TriNet	Your Guide to the CARES Act: How to generate a report for your PPP application

Tax Documentation

In lieu of using payroll documents, some businesses have found it easier to use IRS forms 941, 944, 940 and for those self-employed forms 1040, 1099-MISC. Some banks have also been requesting these, especially Form 941. However, Form 941 has two key issues: 1. Many businesses will not have filed their Q1 2020 Form 941 if using the last 12 months period, and 2. if you use a PEO like ADP, Justworks, or TriNet, those organizations file Form 941 for the businesses they serve and those businesses will not have individual forms. 

In summary, most businesses will be better served using payroll documentation.

Step 2: Calculate your gross average monthly payroll and loan amount.

Now that you have your documents you’ll need to use them to calculate your average monthly payroll for 2019 or the last 12 months which determines the loan amount you’ll be eligible for.  If you’re lucky enough to work with one of the PEOs that has a PPP-specific report then you’ll either have the answer or all the required inputs ready to. No matter what documents you’re using, we created a calculator with references that you can use to help you find your loan amount.

Free PPP Loan Calculator – Google Sheets | MS Excel

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Time period used: It is important to ensure you are using the correct timeframe when calculating average monthly payroll. Determine whether your business classifies as a regular, seasonal, or new business, and use the timeframe recommended on the PPP application under the “Instructions for Completing This Form” section to calculate your average monthly payroll. Most businesses will use calendar year 2019 but some will want to use the last 12 months—both are acceptable.
• Excluded Expenses: The SBA explicitly excludes the following expenses from being factored into average monthly payroll:
  • Any compensation of an employee whose principal place of residence is outside of the United States.
  • The compensation of an individual employee in excess of an annual salary of $100,000, prorated as necessary. More detail on this to follow. 
  • Federal employment taxes imposed or withheld between February 15, 2020 and June 30, 2020, including the employee’s and employer’s share of FICA (Federal Insurance Contributions Act) and Railroad Retirement Act taxes, and income taxes required to be withheld from employees.
  • Qualified sick and family leave wages for which a credit is allowed under sections 7001 and 7003 of the Families First Coronavirus Response Act.

• Employees earning over $100,000: The SBA has issued explicit guidance to exclude any wages paid in excess of $100,000 on an annualized basis to any individual employee. This means that for employees earning greater than $100,000 on an annualized basis, only $100,000 annualized pay ($4,167 on a bi-weekly pay period) can be included in the calculation of monthly payroll. 
• The multiplier: The PPP loan is issued to cover ~10 weeks of monthly payroll expenses (hence the multiplier of 2.5x). Ensure you are correctly calculating (monthly payroll expense x 2.5) to arrive at your requested loan amount.
• Supplemental Documentation: Our recommendation is to submit a brief summary of how you calculated average monthly payroll expense as a supplement to your application. This can be in the form of a simple table in Excel (such as the calculator we provide above). This document should help the bank processing your application to audit your calculation with the goal of expediting the time it takes to approve your loan.

Step 3: Fill in your application and submit.

You can apply through Muevo using our online application and we’ll submit your application to one of our partner banks.  If you have an established relationship with a bank that is accepting applications we encourage you to consider submitting your application through them.

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• National inventory declined by 15.7 percent year-over-year, and inventory in large markets decreased by 17.1 percent.
• The March national median listing price was $320,000, up 3.8 percent year-over-year.
• Nationally, homes sold in 60 days in March, four days more quickly than last year

Realtor.com®’s March housing data release reveals that the U.S. housing market began to show signs of slowing in the second half of March. The year-over-year decline in inventory softened, the number of newly listed properties declined, and prices decelerated compared to earlier in the month. This is the first data-based glimpse into the impact the COVID-19 pandemic could have on residential real estate as the market enters the spring home-buying season.

The total number of homes available for sale continued to decline in March. Nationally, inventory decreased 15.7 percent year-over-year, a faster rate of decline compared to the 15.3 percent year-over-year drop in February. This amounted to a loss of 191,000 listings compared to March of last year. However, the progression of the weekly data showed the year-over-year decline in home inventory hitting a low and softening, which could be an early indicator of slowing buyer activity in response to COVID-19. The week ending March 28th showed a year-over-year decline of 15.2 percent compared to a larger decline of 16.8 percent in the week ending February 29th, the largest decline in our records since April 2015.

The volume of newly listed properties in March decreased by 6.4 percent since last year. The progression of the weekly data also showed hints of changes to inventory volumes that could be linked to COVID-19. In the week ending on March 28th, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 34.0 percent year-over-year, the biggest decline this year. The declines in newly listed homes could be indicative of initial seller response to COVID-19 restrictions, with more potential sellers reevaluating or postponing the sale. If continued, this could mark the start of further declines in new inventory in April.

Housing inventory in the 50 largest U.S. metros declined by 17.1 percent year-over-year in March. The metros which saw the biggest declines in inventory were Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (-42.2 percent); Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI (-36.2 percent); and San Diego-Carlsbad, CA (-33.4%). Only Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI (+3.6 percent) saw inventory increase over the year.

The typical property was still selling more quickly than last year. Nationally, homes sold in 60 days in March, four days more quickly than March of last year. In the 50 largest U.S. metros, the typical home sold more quickly than the national rate, typically spending 47 days on the market. Properties in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL; Pittsburgh, PA; and St. Louis, MO-IL; spent the most time on the market, selling in 86, 78 and 65 days, respectively. Meanwhile, properties in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA; Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO; and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV were scooped up most quickly, spending 24, 26 and 29 days on the market, respectively. 

The median U.S. listing price grew by 3.8 percent, to $320,000 in March, which is a slight deceleration compared to last month, when the median listing price grew by 3.9 percent over the year. The progression of the weekly data showed further hints of deceleration that could be linked to COVID-19. In the week ending on March 28th, the median U.S. listing price only grew by 2.5 percent year-over-year, the slowest pace of growth this year and the slowest since realtor.com began tracking in 2013. The slower gains could be indicative of early market response to economic uncertainty and restrictions to industry activity, along with lower buyer and seller sentiment. If continued, this could mark the start of further deceleration in asking price growth in April.

Listing prices in the largest metros grew by an average of 5.7 percent from last year, a deceleration from the 6.5 percent year-over-year gain seen last month. Of the largest 50 metros, 45 still saw year-over-year gains in median listing prices.  Pittsburgh, PA (+17.9 percent); Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD (+14.0 percent); and Memphis, TN-MS-AR (+12.7 percent) posted the highest year-over-year median list price growth in March. The steepest price declines were seen in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (-2.7 percent); Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI (-1.4 percent); and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland, TX (-1.4 percent). 

In March, 15.4 percent of active listings saw their listing prices reduced. This share shrank slightly, by 1.6 percent, over the past year. Among the nation’s largest markets, only 6 saw an increase in their share of price reductions compared to last year. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA saw the greatest increase in it’s share of price reductions in March, up 6.4 percent. It was followed by Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA (+4.4 percent) and Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI (+4.0 percent).

Metros With Largest Inventory Declines 

Metro	Active Listing Count YoY	Median Listing Price	Median Listing Price YoY	Median Days on Market	Price Reduced Share
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.	-42.2%	$405,000	12.0%	43	24.6%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.	-36.2%	$327,500	2.0%	44	14.4%
San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.	-33.4%	$749,950	9.6%	36	14.0%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.	-31.4%	$1,230,994	12.0%	24	8.1%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.	-30.7%	$300,000	14.0%	49	16.7%
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.	-30.4%	$299,950	12.6%	48	15.3%
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.	-30.0%	$560,045	9.4%	26	15.9%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.	-27.6%	$424,550	4.9%	51	16.7%
Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.	-27.2%	$399,950	8.9%	50	11.0%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.	-27.1%	$615,025	0.7%	30	8.1%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.	-26.7%	$350,000	3.0%	44	19.4%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.	-26.3%	$480,000	0.3%	41	24.6%
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.	-24.6%	$340,000	7.1%	63	16.4%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va.	-24.4%	$505,000	9.0%	29	13.6%
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.	-24.2%	$378,988	4.2%	35	14.5%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.	-23.0%	$960,045	N/A	52	11.5%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.	-22.7%	$328,495	4.3%	43	18.3%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.	-22.5%	$315,050	7.7%	46	12.0%
Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio	-22.2%	$202,450	3.4%	60	16.9%
Rochester, N.Y.	-22.1%	$235,645	9.0%	37	10.4%
Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.	-21.7%	$243,500	12.7%	60	15.8%
Austin-Round Rock, Texas	-20.7%	$372,000	3.3%	44	16.5%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.	-20.4%	$282,050	3.1%	52	26.2%
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.	-19.8%	$507,159	6.9%	35	15.4%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.	-19.7%	$335,050	7.0%	39	17.4%
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.	-19.2%	$202,550	2.6%	58	12.0%
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.	-19.0%	$960,000	6.0%	30	9.2%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.	-19.0%	$280,000	2.4%	54	21.1%
Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.	-18.5%	$259,950	7.3%	57	14.8%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.	-18.2%	$630,050	9.6%	32	11.5%
Oklahoma City, Okla.	-17.7%	$264,400	7.9%	43	17.6%
Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.	-17.4%	$272,495	0.0%	51	17.6%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.	-17.4%	$322,805	5.4%	56	20.2%
Columbus, Ohio	-17.1%	$307,244	9.3%	40	17.4%
Pittsburgh, Pa.	-17.0%	$215,000	17.9%	78	16.4%
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.	-16.9%	$230,000	3.4%	65	15.7%
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.	-16.0%	$284,500	5.4%	51	12.2%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.	-15.4%	$328,840	1.6%	49	16.8%
Raleigh, N.C.	-14.2%	$375,045	3.8%	50	18.8%
Richmond, Va.	-13.7%	$333,300	2.5%	47	15.1%
Jacksonville, Fla.	-13.4%	$320,045	1.7%	58	20.7%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.	-11.9%	$407,802	2.6%	86	15.2%
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich	-11.3%	$239,950	1.2%	48	16.8%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.	-10.7%	$569,050	4.8%	57	10.7%
New Orleans-Metairie, La.	-9.8%	$289,050	0.9%	61	16.6%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas	-9.6%	$342,545	-2.7%	45	21.8%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.	-8.1%	$328,500	0.7%	43	17.2%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas	-4.8%	$313,045	-1.4%	51	20.7%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas	-2.3%	$297,495	-0.5%	59	19.0%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.	3.6%	$373,520	-1.4%	35	11.9%

*Some data points for Los Angeles have been excluded due to data unavailability. 

March 2020 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report: A First Glimpse of COVID-19 Impact on the U.S. Housing Market