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Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week along with weekly coverage from our Housing Market Recovery Index and a weekly video update from our economists. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• National Recovery Index: The realtor.com Housing Market Recovery Index reached 92.0 nationwide this week, the highest index value since the middle of March when COVID-19 disruptions began. This week’s jump also represents the largest weekly increase in four weeks, taking the index just 8.0 points below the pre-COVID baseline.
• Local Recovery: An additional two markets have crossed the recovery benchmark this week, taking the total number of markets above the January baseline to 10, the highest since the COVID onset. The overall recovery index is showing greatest recovery in Seattle, Denver, Boston, Jacksonville, and Philadelphia, Regionally, the West (99.6) continues to lead the recovery with the overall index now virtually at the January benchmark. The South (93.9), which led the early recovery, is beginning to lag relative to other regions as we head into the summer, with both the Northeast and Midwest (94.5 and 93.6) catching up.
• New listings are down 19 percent. Buyer interest in the housing market has more than fully recovered whether we’re using online traffic or purchase mortgage applications as a gauge. In comparison to buyers, the pace of sellers coming back to the market is lagging which is helping market balance measures such as price and time on market move in a seller-friendly direction. New listings are a crucial pre-cursor to home sales, particularly in an inventory-light market. 
• Median listing prices are now growing at 5.6 percent over last year, more than a percentage point above pre-COVID pace.
• Time on market is now just 13 days slower than last year. While it takes longer to find a buyer and complete a sale compared to this time last year, the gap is shrinking as buyers return and have to move faster to compete for a limited number of homes for sale.
• Total inventory was down 29 percent. The number of homes for sale continues to shrink at a bigger pace relative to last year because buyers outnumber sellers in this unusual summer season.    

Data Summary

	Week ending June 20	Week ending June 13	Week ending June 6	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-29% YOY	-27% YOY	-25% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	13 days slower YOY	16 days slower YOY	16 days slower YOY	-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	+5.6% YOY	+4.6% YOY	+4.3% YOY	+4.5% YOY
New Listings	-19% YOY	-20% YOY	-21% YOY	+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week June 20, 2020

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week along with weekly coverage from our Housing Market Recovery Index and a weekly video update from our economists. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Median listing prices are now growing at 4.6 percent over last year, just above the pace seen pre-COVID.
• New listings are still down 20 percent. More sellers are returning to the market compared to the early COVID period, but fewer than a week ago, and the number of new listings remains below last year levels. New listings typically peak over the next month (mid-June to mid-July). Given the importance of new home listings to sales, to see home sales bounce back, we’ll need to see a later seasonal peak this year.
• Time on market remained 16 days slower than last year as it takes longer to find a buyer and complete a sale in the current markets. Time on market could speed up if buyers continue to outnumber sellers.
• Total inventory was down 27 percent. Signs are pointing to rising home buyer interest, and steeper declines in inventory are on the horizon unless more sellers list homes for sale. 

Data Summary

	Week ending June 13	Week ending June 6	Week ending May 30	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-27% YOY	-25% YOY	-23% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	16 days slower YOY	16 days slower YOY	17 days slower YOY	-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	+4.6% YOY	+4.3% YOY	+3.1% YOY	+4.5% YOY
New Listings	-20% YOY	-21% YOY	-23% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week June 13, 2020

Mortgage rates have fallen to a new all-time low for the fourth time this year. But there’s significant upside risk to the low rate environment, and Americans may not want to wait too much longer before locking rates in.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.13% for the week ending June 18, down eight basis points from a week earlier, Freddie Mac FMCC, -0.60%reported Thursday. The previous record low was 3.15% back at the end of May. A year ago, the 30-year home loan averaged 3.84%.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped four basis points to an average rate of 2.58%. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage dipped one basis point to 3.09%.

Mortgage rates have hit another record low due to declining inflationary pressures, putting many home buyers in the buying mood,” Freddie Mac’s chief economist Sam Khater said in the report.

The interest rates on home loans roughly track the direction of long-term bond yields, including the 10-year Treasury note. The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.699% has seesawed over the past week in response to weakness in the stock market driven by concerns about the rise in coronavirus infections across many parts of the country.

Upticks in coronavirus cases across the country left market participants skeptical of the economic recovery’s sustainability,” said Matthew Speakman, an economist with Zillow ZG, +1.09% . “This sparked a sell-off in stocks and a flight to the safe haven of bonds — something that normally pushes mortgage rates lower.”

‘Rates could just as easily begin to trend upward again, particularly if key economic data or measures to contain or treat the virus show meaningful improvements.— Matthew Speakman, an economist with Zillow

But now the mortgage market is at a turning point, Speakman said. And it all depends on what happens with the spread of COVID-19 from here on out.

“More bad news regarding the uptick in coronavirus cases would likely send rates back downward, possibly to new lows,” Speakman said. “However, rates could just as easily begin to trend upward again, particularly if key economic data or measures to contain or treat the virus show meaningful improvements.”

Rates going up could spell trouble for the broader housing market. Eager to lock in the cheap financing, buyers have flocked to apply for home loans to purchase property. There’s evidence that the low rates, coupled with pent-up demand caused by the coronavirus stay-at-home orders, is  driving a significant recoveryacross the housing market.

An increase in rates would hamper the housing market’s ability to rebound. But it’s not the only headwind the market is facing. “It would be difficult to sustain the momentum in demand as unsold inventory was at near record lows coming into the pandemic and it has only dropped since then,” Khater said.

In other words, with very few homes for sale, there’s a rather low ceiling on how high sales activity can go for the foreseeable future.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-drop-to-another-record-low-but-heres-why-americans-should-think-twice-about-waiting-to-lock-them-in-2020-06-18?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

House hunters rushing to lock in record low mortgage rates likely have a bit more time to shop thanks to a pair of announcements from the Federal Reserve this week.

On Wednesday, the Fed’s policy makers said they would maintain the near zero interest rates instituted earlier this year, indicating they expect to keep rates at basement levels through 2022. In its statement, the Fed also said that it would continue aggressively buying government and mortgage-backed bonds at a steady rate to keep markets functioning.

The measures are the most extreme since the 2008 financial crisis and were first announced in mid-March, as steps to limit the spread of the coronavirus wreaked havoc on U.S. businesses and kept house hunters on the sidelines. By reiterating its commitment to these tools, the Fed is indicating that the economy may take longer to recover than hoped, but is also showing that it will take extraordinary measures to help consumers.

“It’s bittersweet,” says Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at home investment startup Haus. “It means there is concern about the U.S. economy’s ability to take off.”

That was certainly the message the stock market took. The Dow plunged more than 1,800 points on Thursday as investors reacted to the Fed’s decision and a spurt of new COVID cases around the country.

What the Fed’s move means for mortgage rates

Low rates from the Fed do mean some good news for homeowners: Mortgage rates are likely to remain near record lows for an extended period. (For the week ending June 11, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.21% with 0.9 discount points paid.)

“The risk of rates trending higher, which is something we were facing no more than a week ago, has almost disappeared,” said Zillow Economist Matthew Speakman.

The expansion of the bond buying program, known as “quantitative easing,” also means that people who want to take out a new mortgage or refinance an existing one should be able to, since mortgage lenders will have an easier time selling on mortgages.

“The Fed’s statement essentially stated they are not going to rock the boat,” wrote Sam Khater, chief economist at mortgage giant Freddie Mac. “The Fed’s stance is positive news for the housing market and allows mortgage rates to drift lower since they have room to decline given mortgage spreads.”

What Khater means by “spread,” is the gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are not directly tied to the federal funds rate, the short term rate the Fed controls. Instead mortgages tend to move in step with the 10-year Treasury note, which responds quickly to Fed statements, since most homeowners typically move or refinance within a decade.

That said, some economists do not expect mortgage rates to sink much lower than they are right now since most mortgage lenders are already operating at capacity. Others warn the record low rates are not available to everyone.

“The rates that we are talking about are the average rates. They apply to your most vanilla loans,” says Speakman. Think 30-year loans for people with excellent credit and who can make a 20% downpayment. “For others, it is still really challenging to get that credit.” 

https://money.com/fed-move-mortgage-rates/

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Total inventory was down 23%. Signs are pointing to rising home buyer interest, and steeper declines in inventory are on the horizon unless more sellers list homes for sale.  
• Time on market was 17 days slower than last year as it takes longer to find a buyer and complete a sale in the current markets.
• New listings down 23%. With fewer sellers returning to the market compared to a week ago, the yearly declines in new listings remain roughly steady, suggesting that while the general trend is toward improvement, it’s a bumpy road and seller confidence is not quite back to normal yet.  
• Median listing prices have maintained momentum and growth is now closer to pre-COVID levels.

Data Summary

	Week ending May 30	Week ending May 23	Week ending May 16	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-23% YOY	-22% YOY	-20% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	17 days slower YOY	16 days slower YOY	15 days slower YOY	4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	3.1% YOY	3.1% YOY	1.5% YOY	+4% YOY
New Listings	-23% YOY	-20% YOY	-28% YOY	+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View

New listings: On the slow path to recovery. Nationwide the size of declines held mostly steady this week, dropping 23 percent over last year, a slight increase over last week but still an improvement over the 30 percent declines in the first half of May. 

More properties will have to enter the market in June to bring the number of options for buyers back to normal levels for this time of the year, nationwide and in all large markets. 
In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending May 16, May 23, and May 30 the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 28 percent, 20 percent, and 23 percent year-over-year, respectively. The continued declines in newly listed properties mean we’ve yet to see the full wave of spring sellers return to the market. However, recovery could be on the horizon as three quarters (36 of 99) of large metros continue to see smaller declines this week, including New York and Chicago.

Asking prices: Price gains keep momentum as the mix of homes for-sale continues to revert back toward pricier properties.

In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending May 16, May 23, and May 30, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of 1.5, 3.1 and 3.1 percent year-over-year, respectively. While current price gains remain below pre COVID-19 levels, we expect them to continue accelerating in the weeks to come as more sellers regain confidence and inventory remains limited relative to buyer interest. Locally, 81 of the largest 100 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.

Total Active Listings: Sellers have yet to come back in full force, limiting the availability of homes for sale. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks, and this trend could worsen as buyers regain confidence and come back to the market before sellers.

Weekly data show total active listings declined 23 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Signs, such as more purchase mortgage applications than last week and a year ago, are pointing to rising home buyer interest, and steeper declines in inventory are on the horizon unless more sellers list homes for sale to meet rising demand. 

Time on market: While new listings and asking prices are gaining momentum, homes are still sitting over two weeks longer on the market than this time last year. It could take a few more weeks for time on market to reach pre-COVID levels as buyers come back to the market and the pace of sales resumes.
In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 30 showed that time on market was 17 days or 30 percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. With fewer fresh new properties and buyers taking their time in this strange new world of home searching, sellers should be prepared to wait longer to find a buyer and longer for the transaction to close as well. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 85 of the largest 100 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago. However, more markets continue to see smaller single-digit increases and could see time on market drop in June, including Dallas, San Francisco and Nashville.

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 30, 2020

Mortgage rates have remained below 3.3% for four straight weeks

Mortgage rates fell to near-record lows — and there’s reason to think they will drop even lower in the future.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.24% for the week ending May 21, down four basis points from a week ago, Freddie Mac FMCC, -4.07% reported Thursday. That was just above the record low set earlier in May of 3.23%.

For the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, the average rate dropped two basis points to 2.7%. Meanwhile, 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.17%, down one basis point from last week.

This week’s decline in rates was prompted by comments from the Federal Reserve. “Mortgage rates slid today after a sobering assessment from the Federal Reserve of the tough economic road ahead,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com. The central bank downgraded its economic forecast ahead of its meeting last month, according to notes released Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve indicated that they would keep interest rates low for an extended period of time to help the economy bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic. But Fed officials have warned that the central bank’s effectiveness in addressing the economic impact of the outbreak could be limited if the U.S. doesn’t resolve public health issues.

“Even as the stock market has improved in recent weeks — normally prompting an upward move in mortgage rates — the still-uncertain outlook for the economy and seemingly low risk of inflation has kept bond yields in check,” said Zillow ZG, +4.77% economist Matthew Speakman.

Historically, mortgage rates have roughly followed the direction of long-term bond yields, including the yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.660%. That relationship has diverged somewhat throughout the coronavirus crisis. 

Read more:‘Investors who own Airbnb properties are looking for immediate liquidity.’ Is this a good time to buy a home?

While bond yields and mortgage rates have both fallen throughout the outbreak, mortgage rates have not decreased as much as bond yields would suggest. That’s in large part due to friction in the mortgage industry caused by the massive wave of forbearance requests that servicers have received.

With millions of Americans skipping their monthly mortgage payments, firms have had to tighten their lending activity to cope, rather than drop rates.

However, the spread between bond yields and mortgage rates means that the mortgage industry has some wiggle room to bring rates down even further, Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in his company’s weekly report.

Meanwhile, the quotes that borrowers actually see will likely continue to depend on their creditworthiness so long as the U.S. economy remains on shaky ground, experts said.

“Borrowers with great credit who are seeking a straightforward loan are being quoted at significantly lower rates than less creditworthy borrowers, resulting in a range of rates that tells a broader story than just the average,” Speakman said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-fall-to-near-historic-low-on-concerns-about-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-05-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Bloomberg) — It’s the surprise of a spring selling season that’s been anything but normal: Buyers returning to the housing market have been battling over the few available properties.

While sales are way down, the lack of inventory has propped up prices and led to bidding wars, even as economic fallout from the pandemic mounts and real estate agents adjust to new public health guidelines that have made it more difficult to market homes.

“Since the pandemic began, demand fell off a cliff,” said Taylor Marr, an economist at Redfin Corp. “What most people overlook is that sellers also pulled back.”

The supply-demand imbalance meant that roughly 40% of homebuyers that Redfin agents worked with recently faced competition when they tried to purchase a home. The rate was even higher in cities like San Francisco, Boston and even Fort Worth, Texas, where more than 60% of properties the company’s clients bid on received multiple offers.

The U.S. housing market went into the Covid crisis with a supply shortage that was driving up prices beyond the reach of many buyers, even with years of low interest rates. That problem hasn’t gone away, despite the economic uncertainty. The number of active listings shrank by almost a quarter in April, compared with a year earlier, according to Redfin.

Still, the market has cooled. Sales of existing homes are projected to fall 20% in April from a month earlier, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would follow an 8.5% drop in March. Construction of new houses plunged by the most on record in April, with builders waiting out the virus. That means new supply will be slower to materialize.

The market dynamics are a shock to some buyers. Kenzo Teves, a 24-year-old business analyst for a pharmaceutical company, decided to start shopping for his first house this spring, because interest rates were so low. He had money saved for a down payment and was secure in his job — factors he thought would help him find a home near Boston.

In late April, he made his first bid on a three-bedroom house in Chelsea, Massachusetts, that was listed for $420,000. The property got six other offers and even bidding $30,000 over the asking price wasn’t enough to cinch the deal.

“It’s pretty strange,” he said. “I would have thought that it would have tipped more to my favor as a buyer.”

The inventory shortage is being felt in smaller cities, too. Kim Park, an agent with Keller Williams Realty in Boise, Idaho, said her business is down about 20% because sales have slowed. But bargains are still hard to find.

She’s working with a young family with two kids and a rental lease coming up for renewal next month. To buy a house for almost $300,000, they had to fight off three other bidders and pay $10,000 above asking price, Park said. They got it only because the winning bidder’s financing fell through.

Homeowners in Boise are staying put, worried about about letting potential buyers in during the pandemic or upgrading to a more expensive property when employment is so tenuous.

“It’s made our tight market that much tighter,” Park said.

In Los Angeles, Sally Forster Jones said two of her clients bid unsuccessfully this month on two different houses. One was listed for about $800,000 and the other for less than $1.5 million. Each received more than 30 offers and are now in escrow at above the listed price. Jones declined to share specifics on the homes because her clients made backup offers and she doesn’t want to invite more competition.

“I’m encouraging my sellers to put their property back on the market,” she said. “The fact that there’s limited inventory is to their advantage right now.”

Not all real estate agents see cutthroat competition. Nina Hatvany, a luxury agent with Compass in San Francisco, said buyers are coming back to the market but the complications of showing houses during a pandemic has weeded out all but the most motivated people. And, even then, there’s sometimes a mismatch between what people think a property is worth.

“I’ve got plenty of buyers saying, ‘I’m ready to buy if it’s a good price,’” she said. Meanwhile, “the sellers are worried about taking a big hit.”

Home prices will hold up, at least through the summer, but declines are coming, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Once foreclosure moratoriums and forbearance programs end, lenders will start repossessions as unemployment persists. Ultimately, as many as 2 million homeowners will lose properties because of the the pandemic, he said.

In the near term, buyers are going to have to slug it out, especially for the types of property that are most in demand. Redfin’s data show that houses listed below $1 million were the most competitive, partly because banks have tightened standards for jumbo loans, said Marr. With everyone sheltering in place, buyers are also more eager to buy single-family houses than condos.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/bidding-wars-back-even-housing-150005227.html

Continuing our research into the Real Estate market and our expectations over the next 6+ months or longer, we want to point out the disconnect between the current US stock market rally and the forward expectations related to the real economy.  Our researchers believe the current data from Realtor.com as well as forward expectations suggest a major shift related to “at-risk” real estate (both commercial and residential).

Unlike the 2008-09 credit crisis, the COVID-19 virus event is quickly disrupting consumer engagement within the global economy and disrupting spending activities.  Spending is shifting to online, fast food, and technology services for those that still have an income.  For those that have lost their jobs, spending is centered around surviving the COVID-19 virus event and hoping to see new opportunities and jobs when things open back up.

The coronavirus-fueled economic downturn is hitting homeowners hard. And the worst may be yet to come.

2008-09 Real Estate Price Collapse Chart

The biggest difference between 2008-09 and now is that the Real Estate sector is not the driving force behind the economic collapse – it is part of the collateral damage of the COVID-19 virus event related to failed consumer businesses, loss of jobs, disruption to the consumer economy and the destruction of income for many.  Yes, for a while, some people will be able to keep things together and “hold on” while hoping the economy comes back to life quickly.  Others won’t be so lucky.

The one aspect of all of this that people seem to fail to understand is the shift in consumer mentality related to the shifting economic environment.  Right now, consumers are dealing with the shock of job losses, the virus crisis itself and what the future US and global economy may look like.  Many people fail to understand that we really don’t know what the recovery process will become or when it will start.  Yes, we are making progress in trying to contain the COVID-19 virus, but the process of rebuilding the global economy to anywhere near the early 2020 levels is still many months away and full of potential collateral damage events.

Multi-Sector Price Trend Chart (Daily)

To help illustrate how the markets are reacting to the optimism of capital being poured into the global economy vs. the reality of the Consumer and Financial sectors, this chart highlights the SPY (BLUE) current price activity vs the NASDAQ 100 Financial Sector (GREEN) and the Consumer Discretionary sector (GOLD).  The SPY recently disconnected from a very close correlation to the other sectors near mid-April – about 2 weeks after the US Fed initiated the stimulus program.  The S&P, NASDAQ, and DOW Industrials have benefited from this disconnect by attracting new investments while the Consumer and Financial sectors have really started to come under moderate pricing pressure.

Concluding Thoughts:

We believe this disconnect is related to the perceived reality of certain investors vs. other types of investors.  Institutional traders may be pouring capital into the US major market indexes while more conservative traders are waiting out the “unknowns” before jumping into the global markets.  We believe the extended volatility will create waves of opportunity as capital rotates between sectors attempting to find new opportunities for quick gains.

We also believe the unknown collateral damage processes will present very real risks over the next 6+ months as the markets seek out a real bottom.

A recent MarketWatch article suggests a new mortgage crisis in inevitable given the disruption to the US economy and consumer’s ability to earn income and service debt levels.

Pay attention.  These recent rallies in the US major indexes may not be painting a very clear picture of the risks still present in the US economy.  It is almost like speculation is driving prices higher while economic data suggest major collateral damage is still unknown.  We suggest reviewing this research article for more details:

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-showing-signs-collateral-141407308.html

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Total inventory was down 19%. If new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week
• Time on market was 13 days slower than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013
• New listings down 29%. Declines persist nationwide but momentum shifts in a positive direction 
• Median listing prices are still growing at a slower pace than pre-COVID, but they may regain momentum in the weeks to come

Data Summary

	Week ending May 9	Week ending May 2	Week ending April 25	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-19% YOY	-19% YOY	-17% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	13 days slower YOY	11 days slower YOY	9 days slower YOY	-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	1.4% YOY	1.6% YOY	1.6% YOY	+4% YOY
New Listings	-29% YOY	-39% YOY	-43% YOY	+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View

• New listings: Headed in the right direction? After a few weeks near -40 percent, the decline in newly listed for-sale homes took another step in the right direction nationwide with the size of declines down just less than 30 percent. We still see fewer sellers putting homes up for sale than last spring nationwide and in all large markets, which is unsurprising in this challenging market, but the momentum has shifted in a positive direction.
  In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 25, May 2, and May 9, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 43 percent, 39 percent, and 29 percent year-over-year, respectively. The continued declines in newly listed properties mean that we’ve yet to see supply turn back to normal. However, some improvement could be on the horizon as nearly three-quarters (75 of 97) of large metros are seeing smaller declines, including the three largest markets in the country New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.
• Asking prices: Sellers look for minimal home price growth, and the mix of homes for-sale appears to be reverting back toward pricier properties. 
  In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 25, May 2, and May 9, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of 1.6, 1.6 and 1.4 percent year-over-year, respectively. While current price gains remain below pre COVID-19 levels, we expect them to regain momentum in the weeks to come as sellers regain confidence and buyers slowly resume activity. Locally, 70 of 99 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.
• Total Active Listings: Countervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions, but so far the momentum limiting homes for sale is winning out. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks.
  Weekly data show total active listings declined 19 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, if new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week, especially if home buyers wade back into the market.
• Time on market: Time on market continues to show the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers. Time on market rose by double-digit percent growth nationwide and in three-quarters of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 9 showed that time on market was 13 days or 19percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is further confirmation of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 84 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago. 

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 9, 2020

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

• Total inventory was down 19%. If new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week.
• Time on market was 11 days slower than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013.
• New listings were down 39%. Declines persist but seem to have roughly stabilized nationwide.

Data Summary

	Week ending May 2	Week ending April 25	Week ending April 18	First Two Weeks March
Total Listings	-19% YOY	-17% YOY	-15% YOY	-16% YOY
Time on Market	11 days slower YOY	9 days slower YOY	6 days slower YOY	-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices	1.6% YOY	1.6% YOY	0.3% YOY	+4% YOY
New Listings	-39% YOY	-43% YOY	-42% YOY	+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View

• Total Active Listings: Countervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions, but so far the momentum limiting homes for sale is winning out. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks.
  Weekly data show total active listings declined 19 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings and decrease in the previous momentum of buyer appetite outpacing housing supply; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, if new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week.
• Time on market: Time on market continues to show the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers. Time on market rose by double-digit percent growth nationwide and in three-quarters of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 2 showed that time on market was 11 days or 19percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is further confirmation of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 75 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago.
• New listings: Flattening the curve? Declines in newly listed for-sale homes persist but seem to have roughly stabilized nationwide with the size of declines remaining roughly the same in the last three weeks. Drops in newly listed homes are widespread, with all (98 of 98) large metros registering a smaller number of new listings than this time last year. Persistent declines still show that many sellers are reevaluating or postponing sales rather than wading into the current uncertain housing market.In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 18, and April 25, and May 2, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 42 percent, 43 percent and 39 percent year-over-year, respectively. Near steady declines in newly listed properties in the last few weeks suggest we’ve yet to see supply turn back to normal. However, some improvement could be on the horizon as more than two thirds (70 of 98) of large metros are seeing smaller declines, including large markets like Dallas, Chicago and Atlanta. 
• Asking prices: Sellers look for minimal home price growth, and the mix of homes for-sale continues to be shifted toward more lower-priced homes. In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 18, and April 25, and May 2, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of just 0.3, 1.6 and 1.6 percent year-over-year, respectively, registering some of the slowest pace of growth since 2013. This slight reacceleration suggests listing prices may regain momentum in the weeks to come as sellers regain confidence and buyers slowly resume activity. Locally, 65 of 99 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.
  So far we’re seeing a smaller share of asking price reductions compared to this time last year in the U.S. and most (92 of 100) of top metro areas, suggesting that while sellers aren’t pushing asking prices, they aren’t quick to reduce them. Additionally, high-cost areas such as the northeast have seen some strong seller reactions–de-listings and fewer new listings–which has shifted the distribution of homes for sale nationwide toward a lower price point. 

Post-COVID Trends in Mortgage-Financed Primary Home Purchases

• As dissected by my colleague, Sabrina Speianu, in the first month post-COVID-19, mortgage data** shows little change in trends by age group despite the major shifts in the housing market. Primary home purchases by Gen Z and Millennials are on the rise while Gen X, Boomers, and the Silent Generation are purchasing a smaller share of homes with mortgages. Similar trends are observed when looking at the generational shares of mortgage dollar volume.
• Home purchase prices are rising the most for younger generations with Millennials seeing a 9 percent increase and Gen Z seeing purchase prices rise 13 percent. For the first-time, the median purchase price for Millennials ($280,800) is approximately equal to that of Baby Boomers ($282,000).
• Perhaps as a result of low mortgage rates which may have caused younger buyers to pursue homes with higher purchase prices, average down payments have slid for Millennial and Gen-Z buyers in 2020, down to 7.8 percent for Millennials. Along with higher purchase prices and lower down payments, loan amounts are rising fastest for younger borrowers, with Gen Z seeing an 11 percent increase in median loan amount and Millennials seeing a nearly 15 percent increase.  
• Shares of home purchasing by generation show warmer areas gaining purchase share, especially among Boomers and Gen-Xers, and Charlotte, Denver, and Phoenix metro areas saw gains across generations.
• Dense metros in the Northeast and Midwest, especially New York and Detroit that have been hard-hit by COVID, saw decreasing shares of home buyers across generations.

Metro Areas Seeing Gains in Home Purchase Shares, by Generation
Baby Boomers	Gen X	Millennials
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY

Metro Areas Seeing Declines in Home Purchase Shares, by Generation
Baby Boomers	Gen X	Millennials
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA	New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA	New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	St. Louis, MO-IL	Los-Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
Kansas City, MO-KS	Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
St. Louis, MO-IL	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA	Kansas City, MO-KS

*Some data points for Los Angeles and Virginia Beach have been excluded due to data unavailability.

** Note: This report does not have a view of changes in generational trends among the cash-buying segment of home purchasers since its primary data source is loan origination data.

You can download weekly housing market data from our data page.

Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 2, 2020