Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week May 2, 2020

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings

  • Total inventory was down 19%. If new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week.
  • Time on market was 11 days slower than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013.
  • New listings were down 39%. Declines persist but seem to have roughly stabilized nationwide.

Data Summary

Week ending May 2Week ending April 25Week ending April 18First Two Weeks March
Total Listings -19% YOY-17% YOY-15% YOY-16% YOY
Time on Market11 days slower YOY9 days slower YOY6 days slower YOY-4 days faster YOY
Median Listing Prices1.6% YOY1.6% YOY0.3% YOY+4% YOY
New Listings -39% YOY-43% YOY-42% YOY+5% YOY

Weekly Housing Trends View

  • Total Active ListingsCountervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions, but so far the momentum limiting homes for sale is winning out. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks.
    Weekly data show total active listings declined 19 percent compared to a year ago as the lack of sellers is currently outweighing the extra time homes spend on the market. Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings and decrease in the previous momentum of buyer appetite outpacing housing supply; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, if new listing inflow remains constricted and delistings remain common, we could see overall inventory decline even more rapidly next week.
  • Time on market: Time on market continues to show the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers. Time on market rose by double-digit percent growth nationwide and in three-quarters of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. The trend in time on market began to slow in mid-March, but the indicator didn’t register an increase until April. Data for the week ending May 2 showed that time on market was 11 days or 19percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is further confirmation of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers. It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 75 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago.
  • New listings: Flattening the curve? Declines in newly listed for-sale homes persist but seem to have roughly stabilized nationwide with the size of declines remaining roughly the same in the last three weeks. Drops in newly listed homes are widespread, with all (98 of 98) large metros registering a smaller number of new listings than this time last year. Persistent declines still show that many sellers are reevaluating or postponing sales rather than wading into the current uncertain housing market.In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 18, and April 25, and May 2, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 42 percent, 43 percent and 39 percent year-over-year, respectively. Near steady declines in newly listed properties in the last few weeks suggest we’ve yet to see supply turn back to normal. However, some improvement could be on the horizon as more than two thirds (70 of 98) of large metros are seeing smaller declines, including large markets like Dallas, Chicago and Atlanta. 
  • Asking prices: Sellers look for minimal home price growth, and the mix of homes for-sale continues to be shifted toward more lower-priced homes. In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 18, and April 25, and May 2, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of just 0.3, 1.6 and 1.6 percent year-over-year, respectively, registering some of the slowest pace of growth since 2013. This slight reacceleration suggests listing prices may regain momentum in the weeks to come as sellers regain confidence and buyers slowly resume activity. Locally, 65 of 99 metros saw asking prices increase over last year.
    So far we’re seeing a smaller share of asking price reductions compared to this time last year in the U.S. and most (92 of 100) of top metro areas, suggesting that while sellers aren’t pushing asking prices, they aren’t quick to reduce them. Additionally, high-cost areas such as the northeast have seen some strong seller reactions–de-listings and fewer new listings–which has shifted the distribution of homes for sale nationwide toward a lower price point. 

Post-COVID Trends in Mortgage-Financed Primary Home Purchases

  • As dissected by my colleague, Sabrina Speianu, in the first month post-COVID-19, mortgage data** shows little change in trends by age group despite the major shifts in the housing market. Primary home purchases by Gen Z and Millennials are on the rise while Gen X, Boomers, and the Silent Generation are purchasing a smaller share of homes with mortgages. Similar trends are observed when looking at the generational shares of mortgage dollar volume.
  • Home purchase prices are rising the most for younger generations with Millennials seeing a 9 percent increase and Gen Z seeing purchase prices rise 13 percent. For the first-time, the median purchase price for Millennials ($280,800) is approximately equal to that of Baby Boomers ($282,000).
  • Perhaps as a result of low mortgage rates which may have caused younger buyers to pursue homes with higher purchase prices, average down payments have slid for Millennial and Gen-Z buyers in 2020, down to 7.8 percent for Millennials. Along with higher purchase prices and lower down payments, loan amounts are rising fastest for younger borrowers, with Gen Z seeing an 11 percent increase in median loan amount and Millennials seeing a nearly 15 percent increase.  
  • Shares of home purchasing by generation show warmer areas gaining purchase share, especially among Boomers and Gen-Xers, and Charlotte, Denver, and Phoenix metro areas saw gains across generations.
  • Dense metros in the Northeast and Midwest, especially New York and Detroit that have been hard-hit by COVID, saw decreasing shares of home buyers across generations.
Metro Areas Seeing Gains in Home Purchase Shares, by Generation
Baby BoomersGen XMillennials
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZPhoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SCAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GADenver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CAWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WVChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FLCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SCVirginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FLDenver-Aurora-Lakewood, COBuffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY
Metro Areas Seeing Declines in Home Purchase Shares, by Generation
Baby BoomersGen XMillennials
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI St. Louis, MO-IL Los-Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 
Kansas City, MO-KS Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 
St. Louis, MO-ILSan Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CAKansas City, MO-KS

*Some data points for Los Angeles and Virginia Beach have been excluded due to data unavailability.

** Note: This report does not have a view of changes in generational trends among the cash-buying segment of home purchasers since its primary data source is loan origination data.

You can download weekly housing market data from our data page.

Weekly Housing Trends View–Data Week April 18, 2020

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports which break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In light of the developing COVID-19 situation affecting the industry, we want to give readers more timely weekly updates. You can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View near the end of each week. Here’s what the housing market looked like last week.

Weekly Housing Trends View

  • Time on market: Slower to react, time on market now clearly shows the impact of fewer new home listings coming to market and properties sitting for-sale longer, as fewer buyers submit offers nationwide and in half of large metros. In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), days on market were 4 days faster than last year on average. Last week, median days on market were one day greater than the year ago level, and we expected time on market to rise. This week’s data showed that time on market was 6 days or 10 percent greater than last year, the biggest increase in time on market since 2013. This is the first clear sign of for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, waiting for buyers.  It’s visible in local data as well as the national figures, with 54 of the largest 99 metros showing similar double-digit percent increases in time on market from one year ago. Importantly, analysis of metro data from last week shows a strong link between the prevalence of COVID-19 in a market and increasing time on market.  In the 10 worst-hit metros, time on market was up 15 percent, compared to just a 2 percent increase among the 10 least-affected metro areas, analysis detailed here
  • New listings: Past the peak? Declines in newly listed for-sale homes persist nationwide and in nearly all (97 of 99) large metros, but the size of declines shrank compared to last week. Persistent declines still show that many sellers are reevaluating or postponing sales rather than wading into the current uncertain housing market.

    In the first two weeks in March (our pre-COVID-19 base), new listings were increasing 5 percent year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 4, and April 11, and April 18, the volume of newly listed properties decreased by 31 percent, 47 percent and 42 percent year-over-year, respectively. While this improvement is small and only visible in one week of data, far below the threshold we’d need to declare that we’re past the worst in housing, we see a similar trend in nearly three-quarters of the top 100 metros (73 of 99) including several hard-hit areas like Seattle, Boston, and New Orleans. The largest drops in new listings persist in Detroit, New York, and Philadelphia.

    Additionally, analysis of metro data from last week shows a strong link between the prevalence of COVID-19 in a market and fewer new listings. In other words, areas particularly hard-hit by COVID-19 were showing the strongest seller reactions, as detailed here
  • Asking prices: Sellers hold asking prices steady and the mix of homes for-sale shifts toward more lower-priced homes.

    In the first two weeks of March (our pre-COVID-19 base), median listing prices were increasing 4.4% year-over-year on average. In the most recent three weeks ending April 4, and April 11, and April 18, the median U.S. listing price posted an increase of just 1.6, 0.8 and 0.3% year-over-year, respectively, the latter marking the slowest pace of growth since 2013. Viewed another way, asking prices typically increase in the spring. Last year, the median list price rose more than 4 percent from early March to early April whereas this year the median list price has remained flat in that same window.

    Sellers that are choosing to sell now seem to recognize the market challenges and may be pricing homes less aggressively upon listing than they were pre-COVID which is why we are seeing steady asking prices. Majorities of buyers and sellers do not anticipate large-scale price declines. A survey from the National Association of Realtors conducted April 19-20 shows that 53 percent of buyer agent clients expect home prices to increase or decline only mildly (by less than 5 percent). Similarly, 89 percent of agents with seller clients had either not reduced their asking price or had done so by less than 5 percent. These results support trends we’re seeing in the listing data. So far we’re seeing a smaller share of asking price reductions compared to this time last year in the U.S. and three-quarters (74 of 99) of top metro areas.

    Additionally, high-cost areas such as the northeast have seen some strong seller reactions–de-listings and fewer new listings–which has shifted the distribution of homes for sale nationwide toward a lower price point. 
  • Total Active ListingsCountervailing forces continue to pull total listings in opposite directions. Data shows stable declines in total active listings and expect this trend to continue.

    Total active listings are pulled in two directions: 1) downward by the sharp drop in new listings, increase in delistings and decrease in the previous momentum of buyer appetite outpacing housing supply; and 2) upward by properties spending more time on the market as buyers who once avidly pounced on for-sale homes now hesitate to make major purchases in an uncertain economy. On balance, we think total active listings will continue to decline, but at a very gradually slowing pace. Weekly data show total active listings declined 15% compared to a year ago, with the pace of declines remaining nearly constant since mid March.

Buyers and sellers holding back in response to COVID

In addition to it’s weekly listings data, realtor.com conducted a quick survey of its users from April 15-17 and here are a few key findings.

  • 38% of buyers are looking to postpone their home purchase citing the economy and worries about the ability to tour homes.
  • Buyers claim to be spending more time on real estate sites/apps. Floor plans and detailed property information top their list of asks from these providers
  • 77% of the sellers surveyed are also looking to buy a home. More than half of those had neither listed their home yet nor found a home to buy

*Some data points for Los Angeles and Las Vegas have been excluded due to data unavailability.

Colorado Springs ranked hottest housing market in March

March 2020 Hottest Housing Markets

Colorado Springs maintains hottest housing market status as national market shifts in response to COVID-19 pressure.

  • Colorado Springs reclaims the number 1 rank of hottest housing market for the second consecutive month.
  • California metros continue to dominate with ten markets appearing in the top 20 this month.
  • The Columbus, OH metro area has seen the largest increase in its hotness ranking among larger metros over the past year.

With the spring home buying season ready to jump into full swing, the entire housing market seemed to pivot in response to COVID-19 in March. While in-person behaviors may have affected buyers’ willingness to visit homes in person, the hottest housing markets were still garnering listing views and closing sales throughout March. Going forward, however, it’s worthwhile to keep an eye on which markets are retaining the attention of homeowner hopefuls as the uncertainty subsidies and the housing market regains its pace.

In March, Colorado Springs, CO retained the title of hottest housing market in the country for the second consecutive month. Originally garnering attention as a spillover market from Denver, this metro has frequently appeared on our list of hottest housing markets, and this represents the third time on record that it has reached number one. Half of all homes in Colorado Springs were selling in under 28 days — nine days faster than last year, and 32 days faster than the rest of the country. Properties in the metro garnered 2.4 times as many views than the average property around the United States. Colorado Springs was the only metro from Colorado on the list of hottest markets.

As a group, Realtor.com’s 20 Hottest Housing Markets received 1.8 to 3.0 times the number of views per home for sale compared to the national rate. These markets are seeing homes for sale move 28 to 47 days more quickly than the typical property in the United States overall. 

Ten states were represented in the top 20 list, including California, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Kansas, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Washington, and Wisconsin. California dominated the hotness list, with seven markets represented, followed by New Hampshire, with three markets represented.

March’s Top 20 Hottest Housing Markets

MetroRank (March 2020)Rank (March 2019)Views Per Property YoYDays on MarketDays on Market YoYMedian Listing PriceMedian Listing Price YoY
Colorado Springs, CO1318%28-13465,27313%
Modesto, CA2826%33-9392,45010%
Manchester-Nashua, NH370%38-13387,4506%
Rochester, NY463%37-10235,6459%
Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN5111%37-14286,45027%
Fort Wayne, IN638-13%39-25246,50014%
Columbus, OH761-3%40-28307,2449%
Topeka, KS84029%38-19152,45015%
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA91016%33-3480,0502%
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA105-2%35-9507,1597%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH114-11%32-11630,05010%
Fresno, CA122025%40-4334,0259%
Yuba City, CA1318-12%42-14369,95013%
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA1421-3%40-16377,05010%
Stockton-Lodi, CA15910%38-3437,8008%
Dayton, OH162214%43-10184,99523%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI172515%44-9327,5002%
Concord, NH187522%47-22330,0002%
Bakersfield, CA192715%42-6275,0009%
Worcester, MA-CT2055-3%42-22358,5508%

Columbus leads most improved large markets

Larger urban markets continue to cool down in the rankings, with the largest 40 markets across the country dropping by 9 spots, on average, since last year. Western markets collectively improved 3 spots on average over the past year, compared to a decline of 8 spots for midwestern markets, a decline of 23 spots for southern markets, and a decline of 5 spots for northeastern markets Western markets collectively improved 3 spots on average over the past year, an improvement compared to last month’s drop of 1 spot on average. Midwestern markets saw an average decline of 8 spots, although an improvement compared to the drop of 12 spots last month.